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Canelo Álvarez and Boxing’s Future, Explained
Now that the dust has settled, what does the Canelo Álvarez deal with Riyadh Season mean to the sport of boxing, and its fans long term?
Details on the future of boxing’s top box office draw, unified super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Álvarez of Mexico, have settled into place a week after a feeding frenzy by journalists, video jockeys, and social media commentators.
As NY Fights reported when the news was confirmed late last Thursday, Álvarez agreed to a four-fight contract with Saudi General Entertainment Authority representative Turki Alalshikh, confirmed initially via social media by both men.
Additional details confirmed the logistics of the first two fights of the deal in 2025. On Saturday, May 3, Álvarez will face IBF World Super Middleweight champion William Scull of Germany (23-0, 9 KOs) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – precisely as we predicted. Receipts available.
With a victory by Álvarez, he will regain the title he relinquished rather than face Scull as a mandatory challenger. It sets up a fight with two-time undisputed world champion Terence “Bud” Crawford of Omaha, Nebraska (41-0, 31 KOs).
Crawford will risk his undefeated record by moving up two full weight divisions for a go at Álvarez on or around Mexican Independence Day weekend in Las Vegas. The venue is reportedly Allegiant Stadium. It’s the most significant possible fight that can be made on American soil.
It’s also the only time fans in the U.S. and Mexico will have a realistic opportunity to see their favorite fighter in person before he ends his career.
The remaining two fights on the calendar in 2026 will both take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the beginning and end of the Riyadh Season in February and October. This moves Álvarez off his traditional Cinco de Mayo and Mexican Independence Day schedule he’s held for many years.
The Canelo Deal, The Fans, and the Future of Boxing
After several days of reflecting on the news and its implications, it’s time to offer our thoughts.
No one should harbor any ill will toward Álvarez. Boxing is a business. It’s called prizefighting for a reason. The Mexican star’s career has passed its peak, and Álvarez has made it clear for years he would retire by the time he turns 37 years old. That birthday is July 18, 2027. With two fights in 2025 and two more in 2026, he’s got some margin for injuries or any other considerations.
Negotiations with Jake Paul weren’t a ruse, but they were a deflection. They offered a fallback option if Alalshikh wasn’t willing to play ball, forcing Alalshikh back to the negotiating table. It’s acknowledged that Alalshikh and Paul dislike each other and their business models. Any deal with one shuts out the other.
Factor in Alalshikh’s admission in an interview with ESPN that he used the Ring Magazine platform he now owns to “spread disinformation” about fight negotiations. This is a concerning sidebar, and we will be watching.
A Deal – But No Guarantees in Boxing
If, as rumored, the Riyadh deal is worth some $350 million to Canelo, well played to him. After the four-fight deal concludes, he can still take on Jake Paul as a big-time spectacle – although there is little love lost between them. For now, Alvarez avoids the ire of passionate boxing fans who saw a sanctioned, legitimate title defense against Paul as an insult to them, boxing, and the Mexican people.
However, past the May fight against William Scull and the anticipated fight with Terence Crawford, there are no guaranteed names of opponents in 2026. It’s too far away to lock anyone down realistically. Injuries occur, and retirements happen.
Don’t count on David Benavidez being an opponent. In 2026, Álvarez should be coasting toward the finish line. He might seek a rematch with Dmitriy Bivol or entertain a rising contender like Christian Mbilli.
Nothing is assured. If Álvarez is seriously injured or loses to either “Buster Douglas” Scull or Crawford, how is this long-term deal affected going forward?
Boxing’s Future in America
But let’s get to a more important topic: you, the American boxing fan.
What happens to Mexican, Mexican-American, and American fans who have embraced Canelo Álvarez throughout his career, making him famous and wealthy? Álvarez made himself accessible ever since he became a professional at age 16.
It’s been a priority to Álvarez that his fights remain free in Mexico, not on pay-per-view. Will this still be true under the terms of the Saudi deal?
With four fights apparently remaining in Álvarez’s career, fans will have just one domestic fight this September. While nothing is guaranteed, if the contract proceeds as described all but the one fight will occur in Saudi Arabia. In Riyadh, there are few fans in the seats other than high rollers, invited guests, and Saudis. The atmosphere is splashy but has been described to me as sterile.
Boxing is built upon fan enthusiasm. Nothing generates more enthusiasm and loyalty from a boxing fan than the experience of seeing a fight card in person. Being part of a roaring crowd, hearing the punches land, and seeing them with your own eyes is priceless. With boxing’s major events moving offshore, future fan growth and loyalty take a big hit.
The day may arrive when the Saudi government decides its marketing investment in boxing isn’t delivering the expected return on investment. The money spigot will dry up.
It’s also possible the Saudis continue to lean hard into establishing a boxing monopoly. Monopolies are rarely positive for the consumer long term. With only one market and little competition, fighters’ purses will shrink. No one currently fighting in the UFC makes a fraction of the money as professional boxers. That’s why the MMA champions all run toward the boxing ring or professional wrestling for big paydays.
But isn’t it so much easier to enjoy blockbuster fights today and put off thoughts about the future?
Boxing will wither here without local, regional, and national cards in the United States and Mexico staged by promoters who support a sustainable business. Prospects, contenders, and women’s professional fighters need opportunities for fights and reasonable purses to sustain them. There are only so many spots on Saudi cards.
Support Your Local Boxing Promoters
Fortunately, for now, regional promoters are still staging North American cards: Star Boxing and DiBella Entertainment in the greater New York area, Tom Loeffler and 360 Boxing Promotions, Salita Promotions, Red Owl Boxing, Sampson Boxing, Eye of the Tiger and Groupe Yvon Michel in Canada, and numerous club operators such as CBN Promotions (formerly Thompson Boxing) in Southern California. NOTE: If I missed you, speak up and let me know.
Premier Boxing Champions and Top Rank are still major players staging U.S. cards, along with Golden Boy Boxing and Matchroom Boxing, although their top talents increasingly appear on Saudi blockbusters.
And who would have guessed that the promoter staging the biggest fight cards in the United States currently is – yes, Jake Paul and Most Valuable Promotions. Paul has been among the biggest supporters of women’s professional boxing with the purses to match. There is no love lost between Paul and Alalshikh.
Boxing is far from dead worldwide. It remains a major sport in the United Kingdom, Mexico and Latin America, Japan, the Philippines, Eastern Europe, and, increasingly, Australia. Americans have many competing sports entertainment options.
But it will be a sad day when the nation that popularized the Sweet Science and whose biggest stars held the world’s attention in the ring becomes a minor footnote. I hope not to live long enough to see it.
