Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia: Prediction Page



Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia: Prediction Page
Photo Credit: Esther Lin, Showtime Boxing

One of the most anticipated boxing events of the year is 48 hours away, and boxing fans and pundits couldn't be more excited. Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia are two of boxing's biggest attractions. Since the official announcement of this fight, fans and pundits have debated who they think will win.

In keeping with our fight-week tradition, the crew at NYFIGHTS and friends have turned in their picks and breakdowns for this exciting showdown.

Gervonta Davis has the edge in the NYFights prediction page, with writers and pundits foreseeing him beating Ryan Garcia

Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia, a face off before their face-off.

Michael Woods (Founder, NYFights): Davis by KO 

Tank’s got battering power. And with that, he also happens to be a superb ring general. Doesn’t make many mistakes and is superlative at making foes pay for theirs. Ryan will make it fun; he will open up, take risks, and leave himself open for thudding hooks. Stoppage level hooks. The winner of Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia: Tank by stoppage round 3.

Austin Trout (Fighter): Davis by stoppage 

I got Tank Davis. And that’s not easy to say because Ryan Garcia got the goods. You can hate him or love him. It really doesn't matter how you feel about King Ryan, personally. Skill wise, boxing wise, that kid can fight. He can punch, is fast, and athletic. He's got heart. You’ve seen him down; we saw him get up. And I believe that is the bigger man, too. So, he's got a lot of things in his favor. The only reason why I'm standing by Tank is because- If Ryan can't hurt Tank, Tank is going to walk him down and clip him. Additionally, I have never seen Tank hurt. I've never seen him buzzed or stunned. And I've seen him sparring light heavyweights. I've been in training camp over there in DC and they put some big dudes in there with him. He’s a little strong MFer-He goes through them, it’s crazy. Tank can box, he’s got speed and agility. If Ryan’s left hook ain’t landing, it's going to be a long night. I think Ryan is going to win the first 6 rounds. Then it's going to start turning and Tank is going to be in full control. I see a late stoppage or KO.

Colin Morrison (UK Editor for NYFights): Garcia by decision

I suspect I may be in the minority here, but I think Ryan Garcia will get the job done. His speed and extra height, and reach will help him immensely in this contest. Gervonta Davis’ tendency to start slow will allow Garcia to take an early lead on the cards. He'll take confidence from this and box smart the rest of the way to win on the scorecards. The shouts for a rematch will start before the post-fight beers have been cracked open. 

Jake Donovan (Senior Writer for BoxingScene): Davis by KO

 Weirdly, I've had the same feeling about this fight from the moment it was first aggressively discussed by both parties. It will be competitive for as long as it lasts. At some point, Davis will do what he does best—eventually, find that one shot that either ends the fight in an instant or forever changes the course of the bout. I'm going with the latter. Garcia will have more than his share of moments, but Davis will slowly break him down and stop him somewhere around the 9th or 10th round. 

Read more of Jake's take on the scrap here.

Lucas Kettelle, (Podcaster, writer): Davis wins

Resumes matter. In Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia, I'm taking Tank based on experience against higher-level fighters, as well as an ability to turn offense into defense and defense into offense.

Gervonta Davis looks relaxed as he counts down to his April 22 fight versus Ryan Garcia

Gervonta Davis when learning that Lucas Ketelle likes him to beat Ryan Garcia (Esther Lin photo)

Gayle Falkenthal, (West Coast chief, NYFights): Garcia by decision 

Speed kills in boxing. Speed will be Ryan Garcia’s best asset. If he can fire off jabs, move and use angles to set up his left hook, he can defeat Gervonta Davis. Garcia should take advantage of Davis’s tendency to start slowly and win all the early rounds. As long as Garcia uses his height and reach, and doesn’t get caught by anything serious, he can win. Joe Goosen needs to keep his Diego Corrales pep talk handy. Yep, I’m going there: Garcia by decision.

Click here to read Gayle's guide on what's going on during fight week.

David Phillips, (Writer, NYFights, Awards Daily): Garcia by split decision 

In the battle of who has built their name on the backs of sub-standard or faded fighters, I'm going to give the slight edge to Garcia. He's fought (slightly) better comp, and the talent is evident. Davis doesn't lack for the latter, but he's been protected at a monumental level. This is a scrap with no obvious favorite because neither has built their resume upon a solid foundation, but I'm expecting an overly cautious fight that Garcia pulls out by a close, perhaps split decision. 

Stephen “Breadman” Edwards (Boxing Trainer): Davis by KO

In shootouts with big punchers, usually, the better boxer wins. Hagler vs. Mugabi, Hearns vs. Cuevas, McCallum vs. Jackson, Tyson vs. Ruddock, in all those cases, the better boxer won because he put himself into position to land huge shots more often and he also defended the opponent's big shots better. In a fight like this, the fighter who makes the least mistakes will usually win. If you objectively consider these things, Tank has the advantages.

Tank Davis is a minimalist. He's efficient and economical in his approach. He doesn't make big mistakes. He loses rounds, but it's a calculating type of thing. But that's where Ryan's chances may lie. If Tank gets down big on the cards, can he turn it around and up his activity? He usually lands a big shot, but it's different if you have to chip away and win one round at a time, like Ward had to do vs. Kovalev in their first fight.

I feel Ryan can win, but I don't think he will.

By this point, we should know more about Ryan as a pro. He should have taken the tune-up fight he was offered. He's been brought along for the big moment, but there have been some holes in his progression. As Cliff Rold said, “Garcia's matchmaking is reminiscent of Gerry Cooney's, who was geared for the big fight vs. Holmes but didn't really go through the progressions that he needed to win.” In an entertaining fight where both hit the canvas, Davis KOs him during an exchange-a violent exchange.

Ryan Garcia takes it in during a press conference to hype his April 22, 2023 bout versus Gervonta Davis

Breadman lays out a thorough and concise take on why he's liking Gervonta Davis over Ryan Garcia (Photo: Esther LIn, Showtime Boxing)

Ryan O’Hara (Writer, NYFIGHTS): Davis by KO

I'm not going to mince words here. Garcia did not look good at all at that open workout. Tank in 5. Read more from O'Hara, on why he's liking Gervonta to prevail

Michael Montero (Montero On Boxing): Davis by decision 

If the Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia fight were at the full 140-pound junior welterweight division limit with no rehydration clause, I'd favor Garcia by decision. But I think his team made too many concessions in the negotiations; he will be depleted in this fight. Give me Gervonta Davis by (possibly controversial) decision in a mostly technical fight with occasional bursts of action.

Boxing Scene story on the catchweight for the Gervonta Davis Ryan Garcia fight

Two days away from Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia. If Garcia loses, will the catchweight be cited as a major reason for that?

Matthew Aguilar, (Writer, NYFIGHTS):  Davis by KO

Ryan Garcia has talent. He's fast, he's powerful (especially with that left hook), and he's got a solid amateur pedigree.

His knockout of Luke Campbell in 2021 was an exciting and impressive comeback win over a former world title challenger.

But when Floyd Mayweather says Tank Davis is the future of boxing – I believe him. And that is quite the endorsement. Tank's opponent selection and his moving up and down in weight have been unusual, but what I've seen so far has been the truth. He is explosive but otherwise patient and calculating – assessing his opponent's weaknesses in real-time. Yes, he can punch. But it's his ability to adjust during that separates him from others. That's what separates good fighters from great ones. And Davis has shown that extra layer that Garcia has yet to show. It’s that simple.

Tank may be down on points (and possibly hurt a couple of times) when he flattens Garcia in round nine.

Scott Murray (Boxing Promoter in UK): Davis by KO

I think Tank will punch holes through Garcia mid to late rounds. Garcia comes out fast, and Tank starts slow – that's what Garcia's camp is counting on. Davis is too strong, though, and unlike the Luke Campbell fight, Tank won't let Garcia off the hook after he hurts him. Davis is to win by stoppage in round 7 or 8.

Raquel Vasquez (Writer for Davis by decision

The Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia fight ends in a decision. I had planned on nothing but pompoms and streamers for Ryan Garcia for his fight with Gervonta Davis until NYFights asked me to contribute to this panel. I had to stop and take all things into consideration fairly. Yes, both fighters have the resumes and skills. Garcia’s obvious advantage (height) has never stopped Davis before. I'm pretty sure every opponent for Davis has been taller than him besides (don’t hold me to that).

But Ryan has been focused on this fight for a long time. He manifested this fight before it was a reality, and there is power in that. Garcia's speed may sneak up on Tank, and Tank's uppercut might land on the King's pretty face. This fight will not get the KO that people want. I predict both fighters will get knockdowns and go the full 12 rounds, and one will win by decision.

(Learn more about Raquel Vasquez from this Colin Morrison feature)

Matthew Pomara (Writer, NYFIGHTS), Garcia by decision

This is the classic“matador versus the bull” fight narrative, with Tank Davis playing the bull and Ryan Garcia the matador. The fight between Davis and Garcia promises to be the most highly anticipated and exciting matchup of the first half of the year. Both are talented and skillful boxers with impressive records, and the fight is a true toss-up. While many experts are predicting that Tank Davis has the edge due to his power and experience in the ring, it will be Garcia’s speed that will carry him to victory. Garcia will have to stay on his toes and prove to be the elusive target avoiding Tank’s punishing power. 

Marquis Johns (Writer, NYFights): Davis by KO

The more I sit on this fight, the more I believe that Davis just does what he usually does. He closes the distance and then closes shows. Davis by stoppage.


My Take: “It's not what happens to you but how you react to it that matters.” This quote by Greek philosopher Epictetus encapsulates the essence of this fight for me. It will be many firsts for both fighters when they face each other. For both, it will be the first time facing an opponent that is faster, stronger, and more skilled than any opponent either one has ever faced. Therefore, the one that can react better to what the other is doing will prevail. “Duh,” you may say to yourself as you read that last sentence. That's what boxing is. However, given the sheer magnitude of the event, Garcia and Davis must be vigilant and react impeccably. The winner of this fight will become the new “face of boxing. One slip-up, mistake, and miscalculation by either fighter will cost them the fight. However, I won't leave you hanging and copout with predicting the fight's outcome by referring to an ancient quote. Tank wins this fight by doing what he does best: knocking people out.

Davis has grown as a fighter. He knows who he is inside the ring and is the more polished fighter between the two. Garcia still makes little mistakes, like exposing his chin when he punches, especially when throwing his favorite punch (the lead left hook). That is something Tank will be looking to exploit. Tank will fight with caution initially, bait and time Garcia's check-hook. Then he will slowly penetrate Garcia's guard and attack the body. And when Garcia is worn out from the body attack, Tank will shoot and win by KO in the championship rounds.