Canelo vs Ryder Predictions: 1 Of 44 Predict Upset

Canelo vs Ryder is just hours away.

We asked NYFIGHTS folks, extended fam, sages, and celebs to furnish predictions for the coronational event in Mexico.

They came through, big time, but, I ask: when do they not?

Award-winning writer Ryan O'Hara leads off with his take on what (maybe who, too) will go down in Guadalajara on Friday, May 6.

Matchroom Sport chairman Eddie Hearn greets Canelo Alvarez arriving for his official weigh-in on Friday, May 5, 2023, at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico. Photo: Melina Pizano/Matchroom.

RYAN O'HARA, writer/reporter: It's not the kind of fight that will elevate Saul “Canelo” Alvarez back to the top of the pound-for-pound list, but it is a showcase before nearly 50,000 people.

Alvarez (58-2-2, 39 KOs) will defend his undisputed super middleweight world titles against mandatory challenger John Ryder in a Mexico homecoming on Cinco de Mayo weekend.

The action unfolds at Akron Stadium in Guadalajara starting at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT.  NYFights recommends you order on PPV.com

The 32-year-old Alvarez, who has won world titles in four weight classes, last fought on September 17.

He easily outpointed Gennadiy Golovkin to retain the undisputed title in their September trilogy bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Ryder (32-5, 18 KOs), a southpaw from England, earned his shot to face Alvarez with a fifth-round injury stoppage over Zach Parker in their November 26 vacant interim WBO 168-pound title fight, boxes at the top level for the second time.

His first shot at a world title came in November 2019 against then-undefeated world champion Callum Smith, who won a controversial unanimous decision to retain his WBA title.

A year later, Alvarez dominated Smith over 12 rounds to unify two super middleweight titles.

However, Ryder has won four bouts in a row since the Smith fight, including a questionable split decision win over former middleweight titleholder Daniel Jacobs in February 2022 in England.

Canelo vs Ryder: Fight Breakdown

John Ryder and his trainer, Tony Sims, training earlier this week in Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, ahead of his fight versus Saul Alvarez on May 6 at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico. Photo: Melina Pizano/Matchroom.

Canelo Alvarez will be Canelo Alvarez, and John Ryder will be John Ryder. That's not a knock on Ryder because he's not a bad fighter, but he doesn't possess the ability to beat Alvarez.

He only has one mode: go forward. Ryder is also 5'9″ to Alvarez's 5'8″, by far the shortest opponent the Mexican has fought in a while.

From my perspective, this plays right into Alvarez's hands. Ryder also doesn't have the greatest defense. He gets hit a lo,t and Alvarez is still one of the best counterpunchers in the sport.

He didn't look at his best last year against Bivol or Golovkin, but let's be honest, he had to move up to 175 pounds to face the Russian for the WBA light heavyweight title, and Bivol was a stylistic nightmare.

I don't care to hear about the excuses; he still clearly beat Golovkin with an injury.

As Ryder displayed against Smith, he can land punches in spots, but this is Canelo. I believe Alvarez gets the KO in the eighth round.

In Defense of the Fight

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez works out with trainer Eddy Reynoso in front of the media at San Diego's House of Boxing ahead of his bout against John Ryder on May 6, 2023, in Jalisco, Guadalajara, Mexico. Photo: Meg Oliphant/Matchroom.

This is for the Canelo haters, but there's nothing wrong with this fight. For one, it's mandatory. And two, a homecoming has long been overdue. This will mark Alvarez's first fight in Mexico in 4,180 days.

The last time Alvarez fought in Mexico was when he defended the WBC junior middleweight title for the third time in a fifth-round knockout of Kermit Cintron on November 26, 201,1 in Mexico City.

His last fight in Guadalajaraoccurrede when he was still a rising contender, a sixth-round knockout of Luciano Cuello at VFG Arena on July 7, 2010.

Furthermore, the third Golovkin clash was the fourth fight in 11 months for Alvarez.

That high level of activity eventually took a toll on his body, and he exacerbated a nagging left wrist injury in the Golovkin fight and underwent surgery shortly after thatr.

Prediction: Alvarez by eighth-round knockout

Canelo Alvarez speaks with Gayle Falkenthal of NYFights.com before his open workout at San Diego's House of Boxing to promote his bout with John Ryder on May 6. Photo: Meg Oliphant/Matchroom.

GAYLE FALKENTHAL, West Coast Bureau Chief: While Canelo Alvarez wants to put on a good show for his countrymen against John Ryder, the more important goal is to put his repaired wrist to the test.

This will be his first fight since surgery to repair a nagging injury last October.

If Ryder proves sturdy enough, Alvarez will be content to inflict damage. He won't risk another layoff by being rash.

Don't be surprised by a decision victory. Bet the over.

DAVID PHILLIPS aka The Cap'n, author/film critic, dogs guy: In his backyard and at the right weight for him, I suspect we will see a high quality performance from Alvarez

Should the fight go the distance, Ryder pretty much has no shot due to the home cooking, but I don't think it will come to that.

I've got Canelo by TKO in the eighth.

Canelo Alvarez and John Ryder faceoff after weighing in for their May 6 fight in Guadalajara, Mexico. Photo: Melina Pizano/Matchroom.

MATTHEW AGUILAR, award-winning journalist: At this stage of his career, it may be difficult for Canelo to get up for a fight like this. As a result, Ryder will enjoy some success early on.

He'll be competitive on the cards when Canelo gets interested again and buries Ryder under an avalanche of right hands and thumping bodywork. Alvarez by 9th round TKO.

Colin Morrison observes the track record of fellow British boxers in Mexico.

COLIN MORRISON, NYF UK Editor: I think Ryder is made to order for Canelo. The Mexican will want to put on a show given that he is boxing in his home country for the first time in eleven years.

Ryder is durable, so it may go some rounds before a fresh off of hand/wrist surgery Alvarez forces the stoppage. Alvarezvia late TKO.

MARQUIS JOHNS, multi-talented reporter: I think with Canelo getting the hometown welcome against Ryder, it's hard to see how any upset seems likely. I think we get a vintage showing from Canelo here and a wide points win for him here.

JACOB RODRIGUEZ, NYF New York State editor: John Ryder's bullish boxing style will not get it done against Alvarez. That said, I don't think Canelo dispatches the British native as quickly as everyone thinks he will.

This will be Alvarez's first fight after undergoing wrist surgery last fall after his win against Gennady Golovkin. So, Canelo may be apprehensive about fully engaging Ryder in the early stanzas of the fight.

However, once 50,000 Mexican fans start rabidly cheering for their beloved champion, Canelo will start to pepper Ryder with devastating overhand rights and shots to the body.

The Brit will fight his heart out, but it will be to no avail, and Ryder will inevitably succumb to Canelo's vastly superior skills in the ninth round.

HECTOR FRANCO, award winning writer: How Canelo performs against Ryder will be telling about the stage he is at in his career.

He has been a professional since 2005, and at 32, we may be witnessing a drop off for him after a run from 2018 to 2021 of good to great performances.

Canelo should come away with the victory against Ryder, but how he wins will be more critical to the direction he heads in next

HOLT MCCALLANY, actor/boxing guy: Happy to see a tough fighter like John Ryder get a decent purse, even if it's only a fraction of what his opponent will earn.

But that's where the good news ends for Ryder.

The disparity in skill and power between him and the superstar Canelo Alvarez will begin to show itself by the middle rounds.

I pick Canelo by TKO in round seven.

LUCAS KETELLE, beast: Canelo in round four.

Lucas, and Count Von Count, all about 4

STE TURTON, UK media: I’d say CA maybe struggles a little with the compactness of Ryder’s style and the tensions of being back home. He’ll be a class above in there but John’s durable and game as they come. Canelo UD imo

Canelo will take a few rounds to get warmed up and feel confident with that hand that was injured but after that, it'll be bombs away. I can see a stoppage or KO around the eighth round.

JAMES LUPTON, UK reporter: John Ryder is one of boxing's good guys, a gentleman to everyone who has encountered him.

Here in the UK, people are pleased he's fighting Canelo because ‘he deserves a decent pay day,' but no one is giving him a chance.

John Ryder speaks with NYFights.com at the news conference announcing the Canelo vs Ryder fight at San Diego's Petco Park. Photo: Gayle Falkenthal, NYFights

If Ryder claims victory, he puts his name up there with Turpin and Honeyghan.

Much has been made about the judges who will be fair, says Sulaiman. Who said they'll be needed? Even if this fight took place in London, England, Canelo Alvarez would be a big favourite to win the bout.

Canelo grinds down the tough Londoner to a late stoppage, maybe saving it for the final round,d where he stopped fellow Brits, Callum Smith and Ryan Rhodes.

RAUL MARQUEZ, ex-prizefighter, current analyst: Big homecoming for Canelo against tough durable Ryder.

Ryder will put up an action fight but Canelo a different level. Canelo KO6, off body shot.

SERGIO MORA, media: Calling it, Michael. Can't pick. Can say it'll be more competitive than people expect and it will go late into fight.

Ryder won't be easy. #NoEzRyder

Sergio Mora AKA “The Latin Snake” favors Canelo Alvarez by a wide margin. Photo: Courtesy Twitter/Sergio Mora

KELSEY McCARSON, media, tough Texan: It's hard to knock a fighter like Canelo, who has dared to be great over and over and over again, but here I am doing it now.

Alvarez is a good level or two above Ryder, and he should be able to get the 34-year-old out of there before the fight goes the distance.

But rather than asking the question about who wins the fight, we should probably be asking why the fight is happening in the first place. Alvarez is 32 years old.

He's arguably the biggest boxing superstar in the world. Sure, there might technically be some reasons why Alvarez should be in a fight like this at this stage of his career.

But none of them are good.

Alvarez via TKO in the ninth.

SAMPSON LEWKOWICZ, promoter/talent scout: Canelo by TKO 7 Rounds.

MIKE LEANARDI, executive: Canelo via stoppage around 8/9.

THESPORTSNISTA, media: Canelo's stay busy fight at 168 with John Ryder is definitely a hometown fan-friendly fight for Cinnamon in Guadalajara, Mexico.

Canelo, the counter puncher is set up to fully exploit “The Gorilla”, an aggressive southpaw who loves to fight on the inside.

The durable, slow starter looked his best in a phone booth fight in a loss against Callum Smith in 2019.

That fight most prominently showed Ryder's pattern of going up top and then lunging to the body.

It's customary to say anyone can get lucky with a punch at any time. This ain't that time though.

Canelo via TKO/KO middle rounds.

SPICY, on-site in Mexico, correspondent for NYFIGHTS: I think Ryder will give Canelo a good fight but eventually Canelo will end it by the 8th round.

SEAN GIBBONS, Pacquiao advisor: I like Canelo TKO 11.

WBO super featherweight champion Jamel Herring (L) and Bob Arum (R) in September 2021 Photo: Kyle Hess/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images

JAMEL HERRING, ex-champ: Canelo stoppage round nine. Ryder is respectable and tough, but I believe he was chosen as a “showcase” fight for a reason.

Especially in Mexico.

MATT POMARA, writer: Boxing’s biggest star will shine again on Saturday.

Alvarez is still boxing’s best front man despite back-to-back subpar performances; a loss to Dimitry Bivol and an unimpressive win over a fading Gennady Golovkin.

Alvarez will battle tough but limited Brit fighter John Ryder, Ryder the clear B-side here. He has a limited resume; with the sole exception of Danny Jacobs, most of the notable names on his ledger have beaten him.

Fighting in Mexico in front of what is estimated to be 50,000+ of his countrymen will provide an emotional boost for Canelo.

He is clearly the better fighter here and between those two facts this should be a relatively easy victory.

Look for Alvarez to come out fast and overwhelm John Ryder in the early rounds and then cruise to victory.  Canelo by unanimous decision.

MICHAEL MONTERO, Montero on Boxing: Canelo is a massive favorite, as he should be, in this homecoming fight against John Ryder.

However, I do believe many American fans are shortchanging the toughness and grit of the southpaw from London.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on the over. I think this will go rounds.

In fact, I'm going to go with a slight upset and take Canelo by decision, 118-110.

ISHE SMITH, ex pugilist: Canelo by 8th round stoppage. Easy work.

DMITRIY SALITA, promoter: Good match, I see Canelo winning in a spectacular fashion in his home coming fight.

JAY CHAUDHRY, marketing expert/producer: Canelo by smooth and slick UD.

BoxRecGrey AKA Grey Johnson, character, record keeper: Canelo TKO10.

RANDY MYERS, pundit, Z backer: Alvarez in seven.

RAQUEL VASQUEZ, bail bonds person, writer: We all anticipate what fight Cinco de Mayo will bring. This year it's Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs John Ryder.

I'll be very frank and tell you exactly what I do if I'm unfamiliar with a top boxer's opponent. The first thing I do is look them up on BoxRec.

It tells me all the important information at a quick glance.

As I was doing my homework on John Ryder, I thought I must have watched the BJS fight. I decided to revisit the Brits' battle on YouTube.

Based on Ryder's losses to Saunders and Callum Smith, if I dream that Alvarez loses, I'll wake up and apologize. There's just no chance for Ryder.

It makes me think of the banter between Chris Mannix and Sergio Mora discussing whether Alvarez will ever be number one on the P4P list again.

Mora had spot-on points about the wear and tear on Canelo's body, whereas Mannix generously gave Canelo years more in his boxing career and predicts he will be number one again.

(EDITOR MW NOTE: To be frank, that reads as canny Mannix buttering that bread to feel to overlings.)

The beauty of boxing is undeniably the ceremony of it all. We love the buildup and the promotional videos.

We love the interviews and insight into the training camps. The anthems and walkouts, even the shorts and gloves the boxers wear are exciting!

This being Canelo's first time fighting in his hometown of Guadalajara in many years will be a celebration.

I'm predicting a great night of Mexican power punches. Here's hoping Ryder survives.

Julian “J-Rock” Williams calls the fight for Canelo but doesn't think it will be an easy victory. Photo: Lucas Noonan, Premier Boxing Champions

JULIAN “J-Rock” WILLIAMS, prizefighter: Canelo in Mexico 🤔 wide decision win on the cards but it's gonna be a real fight inside that ring. Ryder is no walk in the park.

MATT ANDRZJEWSKI, media: Ryder is a tough gritty southpaw as measured in his output (meaning he doesn't create a lot of openings).

His style can be a bit of a quandary to figure out as we saw in his fight with Daniel Jacobs.

Alvarez is going to win but I think it takes him time to get going. My expectation is for a late stoppage, probably past round ten.

If betting I really like the over 8.5 rounds if available.

VLADIMIR LIK, pundit: It will be Alvarez by late stoppage…but 3 red flags for Canelo backers:

A) The last time we saw Alvarez was last September when he won a unanimous decision vs GGG.

Canelo seemed to have gotten off to a quick start but then either began to fade or allowed Golovkin to get back into the fight.

Canelo only won by 115-113 on two of the three scorecards.

Will that carry over into the Ryder fight?

The last time Canelo Alvarez fought in Mexico was in 2011 against Kermit Cintron.

B) Alvarez is coming off hand surgery and until actually lands his left hand we won't know he it will respond.

Alvarez can be a force of nature but if his hand doesn't cooperate it can plague him in a grueling fight against a durable veteran.

C) Two flags in one— we have see a long line of champions struggle in homecoming fights and Canelo has talked about his desire to rematch Bivol in September.

Is he looking past Ryder? Sure hope not!!

Ryder is a formidable opponent but his best recent performance was in a loss to Callum Smith in 2019.

Since then he defeated Daniel Jacobs in a close fight and defeated Zach Parker when the latter had to retire from the bout with….a broken hand.

Alvarez has shown that he's the class of the 168 division and until we see a super middleweight defeat him, we have to admire his greatness and expect a huge victory in front of his hometown fans.

Alvarez will box Ryder until he ultimately stops Ryder and calls out both Bivol and Benavidez.

ANSON WAINWRIGHT, writer/reporter: Alvarez TKO 6. Shades of Chavez vs. Holligan 30 years ago in Mexico City.

The Mexican is by far the more proven at world level and truly elite, the Brit is very solid but over his head.

I think Alvarez will be supremely motivated to please the throngs of his countrymen who will turn up at the Akron Arena and pick apart the spirited Ryder en route to a mid-round stoppage.

ERNIE GREEN, journalist:  Alvarez TKO3. Short and sweet. Ryder was picked for his homecoming fight for a reason.

ChatGPT, human jobs thief: AI predicts John Ryder will succumb to a body shot from Canelo Alvarez in the final stages of the fight. AI also said Ryan Garcia would beat Gervonta Davis, by decision, so ya know.