Boxing Betting: Scoping Navarrete-Diaz, Edgar Berlanga Fight, More
As always in an effort to maintain full transparency I will recap the results from last week’s picks. Below was the final ticket.
Liam Williams to Win – $15 (would win $45)
Prograis-Redkach Under 5 ½ rounds – $25 (would win $21.74)
Harrison To Win By Decision Prop – $9 (to win $15.75)
I thought Liam Williams was on a path to get blown out early but he sure showed his toughness in that fight. And even had Andrade rocked a time or two. But in the end Andrade was too fast and skillful for Williams. We will see Williams again on the big stage and as for Andrade nothing but a big fight next will make any sense.
Harrison-Perrella was a solid professional fight. Hats off to Perrella as well who stepped up his game and fought the best fight of his career. Most felt Perrella knicked it out but it’s hard to argue with the draw result.
Now to the elephant in the room. How was the Prograis-Redkach result handled?
As most are aware the Prograis-Redkach fight ended midway thru the sixth round after Prograis landed what appeared to be a clean body shot that put Redkach out. However after much confusion the punch by Prograis was deemed to have landed low and the fight went to the cards initially as the “foul” was deemed to be accidental with Redkach being unable to continue.
No time was ever announced. Remember the over/under was 5 ½ rounds. The Georgia commission sent the official result in Monday changing it from a decision win for Prograis to a TKO win. But no official time was listed.
Therein lies the issue. With no official time a definitive correct determination as to whether the fight went over 5 ½ rounds or under 5 ½ rounds cannot be determined. My wager was voided. However I cannot speak for how all sportsbooks handled this matter but voiding the bet seems to make the most logical sense.
After all was said and done two bets lost and the other was voided. We began the week with a balance of $988.55 and are now down to $964.55.
As I said last week judge me on the long term and not on the short term. This is why I exercise strict bankroll management as the nature of gambling is going to lend itself to some good weeks and some not so good weeks. The hope is though that by doing my homework we can get just a small edge to grind out a long term profit.
Now let’s turn this streak around and look what we have in store for this week.
As a side note I usually take my odds from SugarHouse. However this week they have been a bit slow getting some odds posted. So some odds were taken from another popular sportsbook in William Hill and noted in parenthesis.
Emanuel Navarrete vs. Christopher Diaz, 04/24/2021
Emanuel Navarrete (32-1, 27 KO’s) will defend his WBO Featherweight title against Christopher Diaz (26-2, 16 KO’s) this Saturday from Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL. This fight will serve as the main event of an ESPN televised show.
As of this writing Navarrete is listed as a sizable -910 favorite whereas Diaz can be had for the underdog price tag of +550. The over/under is set at 9 ½ rounds with the over coming in at -120 and the under at -110 (per William Hill).
Navarrete is a punching machine. He is a whirlwind of activity and possesses very heavy hands. He often breaks the will of his opponents with his nonstop punching assault. In order for someone to beat Navarrete they will need to get his respect by landing powerful shots that will make him think twice about unleashing his own ferocious assault.
So the question is whether or not Diaz is that fighter? I don’t see it. I sat ringside for a Diaz fight in January of 2020 against Adeilson Dos Santos and though Diaz easily won I left very unimpressed. The fight resembled more of a gym sparring session. And the one thing I thought we may see, that is a statement knockout win from Diaz, did not come remotely close to happening. As a matter of fact I just didn’t see much behind Diaz’s punches at all.
Diaz is solid but unspectacular. I just don’t see him being able to get Navarrete’s respect. As with a lot of volume punchers Navarrete is traditionally a slow starter. But as the fight gets going so does Navarrete (below) and with nothing coming back to discourage him I see a one sided beating.
Diaz has never been knocked out. But he has also never faced anyone as relentless as Navarrete. And Diaz’s defense is not that great either. I see Navarrete landing so much that he forces Diaz to wilt under the assault. If that doesn’t happen either the corner or referee will intervene. Either way I see Navarrete ending this thing inside the distance.
My lean here is toward the under 9 ½ rounds. Granted as noted earlier Navarrete is a slow starter but once that engine gets going is gets going. I just see Diaz taking too many punches in the middle rounds for him to make it past the 9 ½ round mark.
Edgar Berlanga vs. Demond Nicholson, 04/24/2021
On the Navarrete-Diaz televised undercard, 168 pound knockout artist Edgar Berlanga (16-0, 16 KO’s) takes on Demond Nicholson (23-3-1, 20 KO’s). The fight is scheduled for eight rounds.
Berlanga is a massive favorite in this contest coming in at -5000 whereas Nicholson can be had for +1400.
Before I get started with my breakdown I would encourage everyone to read an interview Abe Gonzalez did with Demond Nicholson in January. It is a fantastic read and shows how Nicholson how persevered thru some difficult times to get on this stage on Saturday.
After reading Abe’s interview it’s hard not to root for Nicholson. I want to see him do well here and hope he is the first fighter to take Berlanga out of the first round. But I have to put my bias aside and just go by how I realistically see this playing out on Saturday.
Simply put I do not see Nicholson being able to compete with Berlanga. Nicholson is solid but Berlanga is on an entirely different level.
But can Nicholson make it out of the first round and extend Berlanga? Nicholson’s issue in this fight is his style. He is an aggressive boxer puncher who plods forward. This will put him right in the wheelhouse of Berlanga. And Nicholson has been stopped twice before in his career. So I do see Nicholson getting knocked out at some point.
However it cannot be overlooked that Berlanga is taking a decent size up in class in facing Nicholson. When young fighters step up, knockouts don’t always come as quickly or as easily. Nicholson has some skills and there is no questioning his toughness.
I think Nicholson makes it out of the first but not much further. Where I see value in this fight is in the prop bets. Right now Berlanga to win in round 3 is +700 and Berlanga to win in round 4 is +1600 (odds per William Hill). I will have a small play on each of those props.
Felix Cash vs. Denzel Bentley, 04/24/2021
In a battle of unbeaten middleweights Felix Cash (13-0, 9 KOs) will take on Denzel Bentley (14-0-1, 12 KOs) at York Hall in the United Kingdom on Saturday. They will be fighting for the British Middleweight title.
As of this writing Cash is currently listed as the -227 favorite whereas Bentley can be had for +175 (per William Hill).
I am going to do this one a little different. I watch a lot of boxing and keep some notes (scouting reports) on fighters. Here are my shortened versions of the scouting reports for Cash and Bentley.
Strengths – Possesses very powerful thudding left jab. Aggressive and can use that jab to set up his right hand. Does have a very good right hand and it possesses legitimate knockout power. Above average hand speed. Will work the body of opponent’s with both hands. Keeps a very tight guard.
Weaknesses – No head movement. Has a bad habit of leaning forward and can be susceptible to the uppercut. Follows opponents, does not cut off ring. Abandons jab to try to simply walk down opposition. Can get drawn into slugfests even if having way out boxing competition.
Strengths – Athletic boxer puncher. Good sharp counterpunching instincts. Quick hands. Possesses very powerful right hand that can hurt anyone if he lands it flush.
Weaknesses – Holds left hand low and will also frequently drop his right. Could be to set up counter punches but gets clipped at times when doing so (especially susceptible to right hands). Bad habit of pulling straight back with hand downs. Often reaches when he punches.
I am torn on this one but have a lean toward Cash. I just think he is a little more well-rounded and his strengths can expose the weaknesses of Bentley. But Bentley carries real power in the right hand and with Cash’s lack of head movement that right of Bentley’s could certainly do some damage to Cash. But the pick is Cash for me.
Navarrete-Diaz Under 9 ½ rounds – $16.50 (would win $15)
Berlanga Win Rd 3 – $7 (would win $49)
Berlanga Win Rd 4 – $5 (would win $80)
Felix Cash Win – $15 (would win $6.61)
Felix Cash Win/Navarrete-Diaz Under parlay – $5 (would win $8.75)
Here’s to a better week. Good luck to all.