As always, in an effort to maintain full transparency, I will recap the results from last week’s picks. Below was the final ticket.
Ennis/Lipinets Over 7 ½ rounds – $22 (would win $18.33)
Thomas Dulorme Win – $5 (would win $27.50)
Maxim Vlasov Win $10 – (would win $28.50)
Samuel Vargas Win $5 – (would win $37.50)
Ebanie Bridges Win $5 – (would win $27.50)
Courtenay/Bridges Draw $5 (would win $60.00)
Yep, a goose egg. Not one hit. Unfortunately that happens in this business and that is why I harp on maintaining solid bankroll management.
Here are some brief thoughts on the results.
Courtenay-Bridges was a tremendous fight. Where I was correct in my analysis was the fight was much more even than the odds suggested. In those scenarios I will always side with the underdog. The decision just did not go our way. For the record I did have Courtenay edging it out but really saw it as flip of the coin.
Conor Benn is getting better and Samuel Vargas got old overnight. That certainly happens in this sport. Ultimately I underestimated Benn and also did not take into account enough the ring beatings Vargas has absorbed over the years.
Jaron Ennis is the real deal. Lipinets was tough as expected but Ennis continues to get better and better.
Dulorme gave Stanionis a good scrap but fell short. Again I think the odds were too wide in favor of Stanionis and in those situations where I see a path for the underdog I will always pounce.
And finally Smith-Vlasov was quite a fight. Many were surprised by Vlasov. I was not. However, Smith dug down late just when it seemed Vlasov seemed to be pulling away with the fight. Full credit to Smith and I for one can’t wait to see him fight Beterbiev later this year.
This was a loss of $52 for the week. I started the week with a balance of $1040.55 so less $52 leaves a balance in the account of $988.55.
Please judge this column long term and not on the basis of a bad week. I will always maintain full transparency on my results.
As usual odds are courtesy of SugarHouse Casino.
Demetrius Andrade vs. Liam Williams, 04/17/2021
Demetrius Andrade (29-0, 18 KO’s) will defend his WBO Middleweight Title against Liam Williams (23-2-1, 18 KO’s) on Saturday from Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, FL. The fight will be shown on DAZN in the United States.
As of this writing Andrade is listed as a -400 favorite whereas Williams can be had for +300. The over/under is set at 10 ½ rounds with the over coming in at -210 and the under sitting at +150.
Honestly I am having a tough time with this one. When the fight was made I was firmly on the side of Andrade. But similar to what I saw last week with Smith-Vlasov I am beginning to like the underdog more and more. Enough to pull the trigger? Well let’s sift thru this before making a final call.
I am going to start by stating what I think we all know. Andrade is a slick southpaw by trade. He has a big edge in athleticism and hand speed. Williams is an aggressive boxer puncher. He is probably the stronger of the two men and holds an edge in punching power.
I want to take a further deeper dive into the career of Andrade. Who on his resume is most similar to Williams? In my opinion it was Jack Culcay, who Andrade beat by twelve round split decision in 2017. It was in fact close and though I feel Andrade deserved to win Culcay certainly did not make things easy for Andrade.
I mention this fight because not only is Culcay somewhat similar to Williams but Culcay represents in my opinion the best opponent Andrade has faced in the last four years. That is until Saturday, when he squares off against Williams.
Andrade’s speed is probably going to create problems for Williams early in the fight. But as the fight progresses if Williams can keep the pressure on and land with the right hand things could get interesting. I think Williams is a better fighter than Culcay and hits harder than Culcay. Andrade had his issues with Culcay’s pressure as that fight progressed and is probably fortunate that Culcay was not a harder puncher.
There is something else I like about Williams in this fight. He is a dedicated body puncher and has scored knockouts to the body in the past. I do think Williams is going to attack Andrade’s body early and often. This could pay big dividends as the fight moves to the middle to late rounds.
Officially I hate the -400 on Andrade and would stay away from that entirely. I see enough though from Williams to warrant a play at +300.
Regis Prograis vs. Ivan Redkach, 04/17/2021
Regis Prograis (25-1, 21 KO’s) will take on Ivan Redkach (23-5-1, 18 KO’s) in a key 140 pound crossroads fight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. This fight will part of the Triller PPV event that is headlined by Jake Paul and Ben Askren.
As of this writing Prograis is listed as a substantial -3335 favorite whereas Redkach can be had at +1100. The over/under is set at 5 ½ rounds with each side coming in at -115.
Before getting to my analysis of this fight I need to put out this disclosure. I will be focusing my attention on the DAZN card and another show that I will get to later. It’s difficult enough watching two live events but three is downright impossible. I have to make my cuts somewhere and that falls with this PPV show. But just because I won’t be watching live doesn’t mean I can’t have a wager on a fight.
I am not going out on a limb here by stating that I think that Prograis will dominate Redkach. But to further that point I want to go back about five years to when Redkach faced another fast handed southpaw in Tevin Farmer. Redkach was thoroughly outclassed by Farmer and well as much respect I have do have for Farmer also do think Prograis is a far superior fighter.
As a rule I won’t lay the -3335 on Prograis (below) though either. That’s just way too big a price tag for a prize fight.
So let’s look at the over/under of 5 ½ rounds. Redkach has been stopped twice in his career. Once by Dejan Zlaticanin and the other time by the hard hitting John Molina Jr. But Redkach also did recently go the full twelve round distance in the welterweight division with Danny Garcia.
We know the chin has been checked a few times for Redkach. And he is not very adept at moving his head. Prograis is a big puncher, is aggressive and has a big hand speed advantage. The ingredients all scream a knockout ending for me.
But will it be before 5 ½ rounds? I think so. No technical analysis needed here. Prograis knows the importance of marketing himself. He is generally very active for example on social media. This is a huge platform. And as such a huge opportunity.
Prograis can make a name for himself outside of hardcore boxing fans with a statement performance. And don’t think that he is not well aware of this fact. Personally I see Prograis coming out firing and looking for as early a knockout as possible. I love the under in this spot and this is easily my favorite wager of the week.
Tony Harrison vs. Bryant Perrella, 04/17/2021
Tony Harrison (28-3, 21 KO’s) will take on Bryant Perrella (17-3, 14 KO’s) in a scheduled twelve round 154 pound contest from the Shrine Exposition Center in Los Angeles, CA. The bout will headline a Fox Sports 1 card in the United States.
As of this writing Harrison is listed as a -560 favorite whereas Perrella can be had for +400.
Remember the old USA Tuesday Night Fight Series? This is the type of bout we use to see regularly on that series. A crossroads fight between two veterans who desperately need a win to stay relevant in the sport.
Both fighters are coming off knockout losses. As a matter of fact each have been knocked out on more than one occasion. So the chins are a question mark on each man.
Each also have scored their share of knockouts. So this fight is certainly ending in a knockout? It could but that’s not how I see things.
Bigger issue than the chin for each fighter is their stamina. Each have shown a bad tendency to fade in the second half of a fight. And I just don’t mean by lowering their output. Fade to the point of physical exhaustion that leads to them being knocked out.
Harrison use to come out firing and expend a high level of energy. In recent fights though he has fought at a much more measured pace.
Perrella has always been a fast starter. But for some reason he quickly fades if the fight gets to the middle rounds. I don’t think it’s a conditioning issue. I think it’s mental. I also think he will be very focused on conserving his energy in this fight so he doesn’t fade once again down the stretch. This could lead to a significant overall drop in his output.
Harrison is more athletic and possesses a slight edge in hand speed. Perrella is no slouch himself athletically and is more heavily handed of the two. With Harrison’s chin issues there is risk that he gets caught early by Perrella.
But I don’t think that is the most likely outcome. Instead I see Harrison fighting like he did recently against Ishe Smith and Jermell Charlo. And that is at a very measured methodical pace picking his spots working behind the left jab.
If my analysis is correct this will turn into one high stakes chess match. Both Harrison and Perrella will be cautious throughout the night, not wanting to risk those past stamina issues coming back to the forefront. In such a scenario I like Harrison to use his speed to pick apart Perrella from the outside. Remember Harrison has dealt with his stamina issues much better than Perrella in recent years and knows how to win this type of fight.
There is no way though I am laying -560 on Harrison. Instead I will wait to see if some props are offered and my favorite will be Harrison by decision. If you see that at plus money I’d grab as much as your bankroll would allow.
As a reminder please maintain strict bankroll management. I am rolling out no more than 5% of my bankroll ($49 this week).
Liam Williams to Win – $15 (would win $45)
Prograis-Redkach Under 5 ½ rounds – $25 (would win $21.74)
Harrison To Win By Decision Prop (if offered) – $9 (win TBD)
Good luck to everyone.