Curiel vs Nontshinga Prediction: Can Curiel Procure a Win?



Curiel vs Nontshinga Prediction: Can Curiel Procure a Win?

In what may be boxing's most highly anticipated rematch this year, the IBF World Light Flyweight Title is back on the line between two small fighters who pack a big punch. 

The first time Adrian Curiel and Sivenathi Nontshinga stepped in the ring together, we witnessed one of the best rounds of the entire year. Although it would be tough to match that insane spectacle this weekend, we believe this fight might make even more headlines than the first bout between them two did. 

But will lightning strike twice for Curiel? Or will Nontshinga reclaim his belt? Read on for our Curiel vs Nontshinga prediction to find out. 

Our Curiel vs Nontshinga Prediction: Gato Defends To The Distance

In a rematch of what many considered to be the 2023 upset of the year, Curiel and Nontshinga are now fighting in Mexico, on Curiel's home turf. While speed is the name of the game for both of these light flyweight fighters, one boxer has already proven that he can put the other's lights out with one perfectly timed strike. 

And while we don't believe that Curiel will manage to do the same against Nontshinga this time around, we do think the aftermath of that first fight will play a major factor into this second fight's outcome. 

Here's why we predict Curiel will defeat Nontshinga by decision:

The First Fight Just Happened

It has been less than four months since the first fight between Curiel and Nontshinga. Not only is Nontshinga likely not fully recovered from the physical trauma his head endured, but has he managed to reckon with the mental hurdle that losing his belt came with? 

Not to mention that this defeat was the first loss of Nontshinga's professional career. That has got to be hard for him handle. Perhaps ‘Special One' really in special, as it pertains to overcoming adversity so fast — but we'll believe it when we see it. 

Curiel Has the Home Field Advantage

While the first bout between Curiel and Nontshinga occurred in Monte Carlo — which is neutral territory for the two fighters — this rematch is taking place in Mexico, where Curiel hails from.

What's more, Mexico is a notoriously difficult place for opponents to perform well at. And that doesn't include the potentially biased judges. 

Curiel Proves His Superior Power

There's one thing we know for certain, leading into this Curiel vs Nontshinga fight: Curiel has the advantage when it comes to power. Curiel should be able to use that power to keep Nontshinga fighting on his back foot; which could be enough to secure him the victory.

Best Betting Odds and Strategy for Curiel vs Nontshinga

Based on our Curiel vs Nontshinga prediction, we think these are the best bets for their upcoming rematch: 

  • Curiel Win: Based on the aforementioned factors, we think this fight is tailor-made for Curiel to come out with a win.
  • Curiel to Win by Decision: No two fights are the same. Because Curiel stunned Nontshinga with his power during the last bout, Nontshinga will be much more cautious in his game plan — and Curiel will respond with a more measured approach.
  • Fight to go Over 10.5 Rounds: Neither fighter has many knockouts on their record. And since, historically, light flyweight fights tend to do the distance, we feel that this is a safe bet to make. 

Latest Curiel vs Nontshinga Odds

  • Curiel to Win @ -175
  • Curiel to Win by Decision @ +170
  • Fight to go Over 10.5 Rounds @ -205

Full Curiel vs Nontshinga Preview

Adrien Curiel — Man on a Mission

Adrien ‘Gato' Curiel (23-4-1) wasn't expected to emerge victorious in his IBF World Light Flyweight Title back in November. Yet, that's exactly what he managed to do.

And now ‘Gato' appears to have all the confidence in the world.

The world is fascinated to see whether the last fight's outcome was a fluke — or if Curiel is destined to hold his newfound belt for years to come. 

Sivenathi Nontshinga — Seeking Revenge

Sivenathi ‘Special One' Nontshinga (12-1) was on a path to superstardom before suffering a defeat to Curiel late last year. 

Yet, all of Nontshinga's other fights show why he was such an appealing prospect. 

While Nontshinga will never be able to erase that loss from his record, he has an opportunity to set the record straight against his bitter rival, and get his belt back this weekend. 

And we can't wait to see whether he will!

Grant Young is a sports writer from San Francisco. He has had two professional Muay Thai fights: he got knocked out in one, and got a knockout in the other. When it comes to his favorite fighters, it's Israel Adesanya, and then it's everyone else.