Boxing Betting

Inoue vs Ancajas Prediction: Can the Champ Win His First Title Defense?



Inoue vs Ancajas Prediction: Can the Champ Win His First Title Defense?

Takuma Inoue vs Jerwin Ancajas is finally set to take place on February 24 in Tokyo. Will the champ Inoue be able to live up to expectations and retain his belt? Or can Ancajas capitalize on his experience and dethrone the Japanese boxer in his own backyard? Read on for our Inoue vs Ancajas prediction.

After winning the vacant WBA Bantamweight Title from Liborio Solis, Takuma Inoue undoubtedly painted a huge bullseye on his back. Now, the former champ, Jerwin Ancajas, is back on the hunt to claim the crown and become a double-weight world champion. In our Takuma Inoue vs Jerwin Ancajas prediction, we go over both fighters’ strengths and weaknesses and how they can overcome the odds to prevail in Tokyo.

Inoue vs Ancajas Prediction

Initially, this fight was set for November but was later postponed due to Inoue suffering a rib injury during training. On one side we have Takuma Inoue, who is the younger brother of the Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue. On the other, we have Jerwin Ancajas, a seasoned fighter from the Philippines who already made nine successful title defenses. Given that this is Takuma Inoue’s first official title defense, the pressure is high for the young star to meet the expectations set by his older brother.

Takuma Inoue Preview

Takuma Inoue currently holds a record of 18-1-0, with four knockout wins. His only loss came at the hands of Nordine Oubaali back in 2019 after the fight went to a split decision. Despite the defeat, Inoue quickly picked himself back up and hasn’t lost a single match since 2021. 

While many critics have pointed out that Inoue does not possess the incredible striking power of his older brother, he more than makes up for it with his fast hands, deadly combos, quick feet, and technical game plan. Inoue has proved time and time again that power is not the only decisive weapon in a fighter's arsenal. His technical prowess of always being in the right spot compensates for any lack of physical strength. 

One thing evident in Inoue’s recent fights against Oubaali and Solis is that the Japanese boxer can take a hit. The biggest reason he was able to win against Solis is because he showed incredible fortitude to bounce back after receiving a clean shot to the chin. The fight that won him the WBA Bantamweight Championship is a clear indicator of how much he has grown as a fighter over the past few years. 

Our Inoue vs Ancajas prediction is that if Inoue can pick up the momentum early on and dictate the flow of the match, he he's got this one in the bag. However, his fight against Ancajas won’t be a walk in the park. His opponent has many of the traits of Oubaali. That means this is the moment Takuma Inoue has been waiting for, to show the world that he can overcome his biggest failing. 

Jerwin Ancajas Preview

Despite being the veteran in the bout, Jerwin Ancajas has been labeled as the underdog on Saturday night. But don’t let that fool you: Ancajas has competed in 39 professional boxing matches across his career and currently holds a record of 34-3-2. What’s more staggering is the fact that he has a KO rate of more than 67%, with 23 of his total 34 wins came from knockouts. 

Jerwin Ancajas is a Southpaw powerhouse with excellent head movement who knows how to pick his shots. Although critics are favoring the Japanese wonderboy over the Philippines veteran as he suffered back-to-back losses thanks to Fernando Daniel Martinez, underestimating Ancajas’ experience in the ring will undoubtedly result in a defeat. Just look at the last time Ancajas took the ring as a flyweight – he was a genuine menace at this weight class. 

The best aspect of Ancajas’ fighting style is his ability to wear his opponent out by landing rock-hard body shots. This will definitely play to his strengths, as Inoue is coming off from a rib injury. Even if the injury wasn’t a factor, not many fighters can remain unscathed from Ancajas’ shower of punches. This also explains why Ancajas has such a high number of knockouts. 

To give credit where it is due in our Inoue vs Ancajas prediction, Ancajas has a strong chance of winning this fight. He is a clever boxer with some serious striking power. While it may not the most likely scenario, we believe that if Ancajas sticks to his strength and focuses down the body, we could see a TKO by round nine. 

Takuma Inoue vs Jerwin Ancajas Prediction: Ancajas to Win By TKO

Our official Inoue vs Ancajas prediction is that Ancajas will win the fight by TKO.

We understand that Inoue is the clear favorite in the fight, with the odds of him winning sitting at 1.44. But we cannot discount Ancajas’ power and precision as the odds of him winning are 2.75. The probability of stalemate is very unlikely with the odds a draw are 15.00. 

While Inoue has proved that he can take a hit, if Ancajas can successfully land powerful strikes against the body, it will only be a matter of time before the fight is called off by the referee. Hence, the odds of Ancajas winning by TKO/KO are at 6.00 and the odds of Inoue winning by TKO/KO is at 8.50, clearly favoring Ancajas here.

However, if Ancajas wants to win then he has to focus on ending the fight early. He simply cannot go the full 12 rounds taking shots from a fighter like Inoue. That is why the odds of Ancajas winning by a decision is at 4.50, whereas for Inoue, the odds of winning by a decision is at 1.61.

With that said, whoever does end up winning, we are in for a treat. For Inoue, a win here will mark the beginning of his title’s legacy. And for Ancajas, a win will mean redemption. 

Bren Gray is our resident Kiwi, and has been writing about sports since he could first string words together. He first fell in love with boxing when David Tua took on Lennox Lewis in 2000, and hasn't looked back since.