Noche UFC Prediction – Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 – Vamonos!

Dia de la pelea! Ladies and gentlemen, it is fight day! Live from Las Vegas, Nevada, UFC Noche is here, and comes on the perfect weekend – celebrating Mexico's Independence Day! And to celebrate said occasion, we have one hell of a fight to main event this Mexican Independence weekend – the UFC's women's flyweight champion, Alexa Grasso, defends her newly-won title in a rematch with Valentina Shevchenko. Read on below to find our official prediction for this manic main event!

Alexa Grasso: Mexican Marauder Flying the Flag

Alexa Grasso is absolutely on cloud nine right now.

Predictions were rife that the Guadalajara native was destined for superstardom, but nobody could have made the prediction that said stardom would have come in the manner it would have – absolutely dominating and decimating arguably the greatest female fighter to ever do so; Valentina Shevchenko.

Alexa Grasso upset the prediction of everyone when she pulled off this decimating neck crank to defeat Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285. (Image Credit: MMA Fighting)

And make no mistake about it – Grasso's win was anything but a fluke. I had Grasso winning the fight up until the suffocating neck crank finish that she applied to Shevchenko in round four of the first fight. Valentina's wrestling was very good, but Grasso out-worked and out-struck the former champion all the way – something that is pretty shocking to see against Valentina Shevchenko. Alexa Grasso will be coming into this fight with a LOT of confidence and self-belief – and very rightfully so.

Valentina Shevchenko – A Fighter in Decline?

Valentina Shevchenko is arguably the greatest female combat sports athlete to ever do it. That is not a controversial statement to make. However, she might well be on the downward trend of her fighting career as well.

You might be asking – why would I make such a controversial prediction? The answer is pretty simple, actually – Valentina hasn't looked like the old “Bullet” for quite a while now. I still maintain that she lost to Taila Santos at UFC 275 in 2022. The Alexa Grasso fight showed that the new generation of female MMA is very rapidly catching up to her. In both fights (against Santos and Grasso), Shevchenko looked as though she massively struggled with the power (both punching and grappling) of her newer foes.

It's tough to make a prediction for how Valentina will look in this fight, but I am extremely intrigued to see which version of “The Bullet” we see in this fight.

Alexa Grasso: Path to Victory – Confidence is Key

Like their first matchup, confidence is going to be vital to Alexa Grasso's success.

Many fighters have wilted in the face of Shevchenko's offense in the past, and have resorted to desperate grappling and flapping striking in order to try and cope. Taila Santos and Alexa Grasso have shown the blueprint for how to get past this. Both fighters displayed dominantly powerful wrestling and confident, strident striking – and both got the best (in my opinion) of Shevchenko. 

Alexa Grasso is going to win this fight by replicating the blueprint of the first fight. The only thing that Grasso is going to have to tighten up on is her takedown defence. The one area where Shevchenko had real success in the first fight was in taking down Grasso nearly at will – although she wasn't able to do much with it. Regardless, if Grasso can shut down those takedown attempts and replicate her form from the first fight, then she will have a very good chance of retaining her newly-won UFC flyweight championship.

Valentina Shevchenko: Path to Victory – Fly Out of The Blocks

For Valentina Shevchenko to win this fight, she kind of has to not do everything she did in the first fight.

I know that prediction sounds like a little bit of an oversimplification, but it is an accurate one. In the first fight, the “Bullet” was surprisingly blunt and ineffective. Her takedowns were good, yes, but they didn't lead to anything. She tried to stand and strike with Grasso and ate big shot after big shot. It was not a good game plan for Valentina.

The only way Valentina is going to win this fight is by massively re-sharpening her striking. She is not powerful enough to out-grapple Grasso, and I also think that Grasso's cardio was a big problem for Shevchenko too. Realistically, Shevchenko needs to get this done within the first two rounds. She's going to have to massively pressure Grasso and unload some of those trademark shots from her legendary arsenal of weaponry. If this fight goes beyond two rounds, then I think it becomes a much more difficult task for Shevchenko to win her UFC flyweight championship back.

Official Prediction: Grasso to Win Big on Independence Day

Truthfully, my prediction is fairly simple – I think Alexa Grasso will retain her newly won UFC flyweight title.

The reason that I am making this prediction is because I haven't seen any evidence that Valentina Shevchenko can adapt to the new generational threat that is currently in front of her. Truthfully, Shevchenko got lucky (in my opinion) against Taila Santos, and she did not heed the warning when she was tasked with facing Alexa Grasso. Grasso fought a similar fight plan to that of Santos, and Shevchenko just did not have an answer for it. The movement, the sniper-like timing from Shevchenko was just not there.

My prediction is that Alexa Grasso is going to have too much for Valentina Shevchenko, and that she will retain her UFC flyweight title. (Image Credit: UFC)

Ultimately, I think Grasso is just going to be too durable and have too much for Valentina. Much like the first fight, I think Grasso is going to be very confident taking the centre of the octagon and sapping the energy of Shevchenko. My prediction is that Grasso goes the distance and retains her UFC flyweight title with an excellent decision victory.