Haney vs Diaz Jr Prediction – WBC Lightweight Title Fight 12/05/2021
Fight for the WBC world lightweight title (up to 61.2 kg)
Judging by the pre-match situations and latest sportsbook odds, the young WBC lightweight champion Devin Haney is set to face the toughest test at this stage of his career, coming up against fellow American Joseph ‘Jo Jo' Diaz.
Haney vs Diaz: Betting Odds and Picks
Here are the best current odds* on the fight winner market:
Haney: -550 at Fanduel Sportsbook
Diaz: +430 at Fanduel Sportsbook
Draw: +2500 at BetMGM
* — odds offered by sportsbooks are constantly updated
Bear in mind you can wager on a whole range of outcomes related to the fight, if the win market doesn’t take your fancy. With such a clear favourite, it’s not really enticing to back Haney at odds of -550.
To get a little more bang for your buck, you could look at the Method of Victory options.
Right now, Haney is available at a best price of +280 to win by KO, TKO or DQ. Alternatively, if you think he wins on a decision, you can get odds of -160, again at Fanduel Sportsbook, who seem to offer the best betting value in town when it comes to this fight as a whole.
Will the fight go the distance? The books are split
The bookies certainly seem to think it’s more likely the fight is decided on a decision, but the odds vary drastically from one to another.
You can get as low at -400 on the fight going twelve rounds in some places, whereas others such as Fanduel Sportsbook will give you -245. So look out for odds movements when making your Haney vs Diaz Jr picks, and you might just catch some value.
Round betting: An outside shot at a big odds win
With that in mind, round betting odds are clearly high. Again you should line up your betting prediction with an odds comparison.
For instance, the lowest price individual rounds are Haney to win in the 6th, 7th or 8th. Each is priced up at +2900 with Fanduel, but only +2000 at BetMGM. That’s a massive difference, and probably worth creating a Fanduel Sportsbook account for that reason alone if you want to take a shot at a round betting pick.
When it comes to Group round betting, Haney to win in 7-9 is the most likely according to the bookies, with 4-6 close behind. Our opinion? It’s just too much of a long shot, considering the fight will more than likely go the distance. But if you like an outside wager at biggish odds, you could go for one of these group round picks.
The Big Fight Breakdown: Haney vs Diaz Jr, Records and Stats
Age: 23 Height: 173 cm R
Record: 26-0, 15 KO
Since fighters must be at least 18 years of age to be eligible for professional boxing in the US, 17-year-old Haney had to start his career south of the border in Mexico. It was there that he won his first title, when he became WBC Youth World Champion.
Since 2018, the fighter's level of opposition has increased consistently and significantly, though some of his detractors state that he hasn't had to travel a hard road to this place. He got the WBC international title, and later became the organization’s “interim” champion, having beaten Zaur Abdullaev by TKO in September 2019.
And then came a ridiculous confusion, down in no small part to the WBC. They came up with a “franchise” title, which they gave to reigning champion Vasiliy Lomachenko, and then they promoted Haney. Thus, champion “without a fight”. The fighter has 3 successful defenses and 2 victories over eminent opponents – Yuriorkis Gamboa and Jorge Linares. But don't forget that the best years of those well-deserved ex-champions were already long behind them.
Age: 29 Height: 168 cm
Record: 32-1-1, 15 KO
A 19-year-old Diaz defeated the future European champion Pavel Ishchenko at the 2012 Olympic Games, after which he lost to eventual medalist Lazaro Alvarez. In the same year, the young prospect went pro and began performing in the super bantamweight division.
From 2015 onwards, Jo Jo won several regional belts in the featherweight division and became a mandatory challenger for weight class leader Gary Russell Jr. The first pancake was lumpy – he lost to the WBC champion by unanimous decision.
In his next fight, Diaz fought for the title again – he defeated Jesus Rojas, but a little earlier he failed the weigh-in and no lost claim to the WBA Regular belt.
In January 2020, Diaz entered the title fight for the third time and took away the IBF junior lightweight belt from Tevin Farmer. Exactly a year later, the fighter lost his title due to weight issues, after which he drew a fight with the mandatory challenger Shavkat Rakhimov.
In July 2021, Diaz replaced the sick Ryan Garcia, moved up to lightweight division, beat the ex-champion Javier Fortuna and got the vacant WBC ”interim” champion title.
Haney vs Diaz fight prediction: The lowdown
Professional boxing ”changed” Diaz's style – he evolved from a ”pure-boxer” to a ”puncher”. The current version of this fighter is an aggressor who prefers middle distance and knows how to apply solid pressure.
Haney is an out-fighter, counter puncher. Very good at defense. Fast, smart, technical. But not powerful enough.
It is the absence of a good punch that gives the candidate serious chances. Indeed, in fights against aggressors, it is very important to make them respect your fire potential. That’s the key in this confrontation: how will Diaz, from the super bantamweight division, cope against a born-and-bred lightweight Haney, who has been in the same division since the age of 17?
The fight with Linares showed that the champion is still vulnerable – in the 10th round he took a hit, was shocked, obviously survived clinching. It was lucky that the veteran behaved passively, and didn’t seek to finish him off. For sure Diaz would have acted differently in the place of Linares. The question is, will he have such a chance?
An interesting point: Haney vs Diaz fight became possible only after Ryan Garcia got sick again. Ryan, it doesn't work that way! Treatment is needed!
Despite the fact that Haney is the clear favorite and rightfully so, we still suggest keeping a close eye on the odds offered by bookmakers and looking at the underdog as a potential outside betting pick should his odds reach +450 or greater.
At least we will do that because this guy is still a bull terrier. The risk is worth it.
FAQ: All the required details
The fight will take place on Saturday, December 4, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (USA). The show promoter is Eddie Hearn (Matchroom Boxing).
Where to see the action
The action will be broadcast live on DAZN
Start of the broadcast
The live broadcast of the show will begin on December 4th at 7:00PM EST
Haney vs Diaz fight outcome
The results of the main fight in Las Vegas, as well as the rest of the top fights of the night, will be displayed on our website as quickly as possible – stay tuned!