Ladies and gentlemen, the UFC is back! This weekend, the UFC comes to us live from Boston, Massachusetts. On Saturday night, UFC 292 is live from the legendary TD Garden, right in the heart of Boston. Featuring an epic bantamweight title main event between Aljamain “Funkmaster” Sterling and “Suga” Sean O'Malley, this event also features a welterweight grudge match on the main card between Neil Magny and Ian Garry. Here, we are offering our prediction and breakdown for what is sure to be one hell of a welterweight fight! Read on to find our prediction and breakdown below!
Neil Magny: “Haitian Sensation” Needs Big Win
Neil Magny has not been having a great time as of late. In fact, few would have made the prediction of how topsy-turvy these last few years would have been.
Even though he is coming into this fight off the back of a win, the manner of said win was an unconvincing split decision win over Philip Rowe in June of this year. Prior to that, his form over the last few years has been very up-and-down. Wins over Robbie Lawler, Geoff Neal, Max Griffin and Daniel Rodriguez have been sandwiched in between losses to Michael Chiesa, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Gilbert Burns.
To be fair to Neil Magny, his losses have come against some of the big names in this welterweight division, so that doesn't actually concern me all that much. What does concern me is the unconvincing manner of his wins. For such a well-rounded, multi-faceted fighter, I do feel that Neil Magny is capable of pushing the envelope and finishing many more fights. In this fight against Ian Garry, he needs a big statement, simple as that.
Ian Garry: Is “The Future” Now?
Unlike his opposing number, Ian Garry has very much been having a great time as of late.
Many people have been making the prediction that Garry is the next great Irish export. “The Future” has certainly been showing glimpses of why he has that nickname, with some impressive finishes being added to his resumé recently. A third round knockout victory over Kenan Song at UFC 285 was followed by an outrageous head kick (followed by punches) TKO over Daniel Rodriguez in May of this year.
Curiously, Ian Garry was actually scheduled to be fighting Geoff Neal, but has constantly been calling for this fight against Neil Magny. To his immense credit, Magny accepted this fight on one weeks' notice, so Ian Garry has very much gotten his wish. This is sure to be one epic matchup, and the common prediction is that Ian Garry will continue his charge up the ranks.
Neil Magny: Path to Victory – Grappling is King
Truthfully, Neil Magny cannot strike with Ian Garry – the levels are just too much. However, I do think Magny has a significant grappling advantage that he can exploit.
Even though the majority of his professional record (17 of 28) have come via decision, it has been the “Haitian Sensation”‘s grappling prowess that has powered him through many of those wins. He also has a very nasty D'Arce Choke in his arsenal (as displayed in his win over Daniel Rodriguez).
Realistically, the best path to victory that Neil Magny has in this fight is to push Ian Garry up against the cage and quickly get to work grappling. Many people have speculated that Ian Garry's downfall could be having to face elite wrestling, so Neil Magny could actually spring a huge upset here. Bear in mind the optimum words “huge upset”, though.
Ian Garry: Sniper-Like Striking Supremacy
Realistically, Ian Garry's most obvious (and easiest) path to victory in this fight is to keep this fight standing and to pick Neil Magny apart, and I am offering the prediction that this is the gameplan that Magny will come out of the blocks with.
By far the most impressive aspect of Ian Garry's MMA skillset so far has been his striking. It is genuinely world class, and most of the fighters he has fought to date have struggled really badly in trying to cope with it and figure it out. Despite having a significant reach disadvantage, Garry does have a significant advantage when it comes to speed and footwork, and this is where Magny might struggle quite a bit.
I mentioned above that Magny has to get Garry up against the fence in order to really put his grappling advantage to work, and therefore have any real chance in this fight. The problem with this is the fact that Garry's footwork and speed will make him a really difficult fighter to corner and trap against the fence. Plus, if Magny times it wrong, then he runs the very dangerous risk of getting countered and knocked out. There's a very good reason that Ian Garry is a -400 betting favourite in this fight.
Official Prediction: “The Future” to Remain the Present
Perhaps in not the biggest shock to anybody, I am making the prediction that Ian Garry wins this fight.
In truth, I just think there are too many factors working against Neil Magny. Magny is a great fighter (I mean, he's the No. 11 ranked welterweight for a reason), but Ian Garry, stylistically, is just the kryptonite to Neil Magny's fighting style. Dynamic movement and elite striking are always going to trouble a very good wrestler, and this is exactly how I am predicting that this fight will unfold. I am making the prediction that Ian Garry will take the first round to work out Magny's patterns, and then explode out in the second round and TKO him.
Of course, Magny could always catch Garry with something, use his excellent clinch game and get him to the ground, thus upsetting predictions everywhere. If that was to happen, then I think Garry would be in big, big trouble. But I just don't see that happening. I think Ian Garry is just too fast and too smooth, and I am making the prediction that he'll catch Magny with a trademark right hand in the second round.
Official Prediction: Ian Garry to win via TKO in the second round.