Boxing Betting

Early Lopez vs Ortiz Prediction: Can the Champ Handle Being Favorite?



Early Lopez vs Ortiz Prediction: Can the Champ Handle Being Favorite?

Thursday nights are the new Saturday nights in Las Vegas this week, as Teofimo Lopez takes on Jamaine Ortiz in a midweek title fight on Thursday. With the WBO Super Lightweight Title on the line in Nevada, we break down our early Lopez vs Ortiz prediction ahead of this winner takes all clash.

Background to Lopez vs Ortiz

As we head into Thursday night, it’s important to understand the context of this title fight.

For Teofimo Lopez, the American is looking to execute an impressive win here, with the hope of potentially teeing up a super lightweight unification bout against Devin Haney later this year. It’s a bit of a pipedream at this stage, but it will be what keeps the 26-year-old motivated. Win big, and he’s got a shot at it; lose, or stutter to victory, and that door will likely shut.

For Jamaine Ortiz, the 27-year-old is still looking to bounce back from his first career loss against Vasyl Lomachenko in 2022. While it’s been more than a year since that loss, Ortiz’s last five fights read 3-1-1, and he’ll be after a comprehensive win over Lopez in this bout to prove that these hiccups are just that, rather than a greater indication of his boxing ability.

What Are the Bookies Saying Ahead of Lopez vs Ortiz?

Heading into this clash, here’s how the bookies' odds are reading for Lopez vs Ortiz:

  • Teofimo Lopez to win @ -700
  • Jamaine Ortiz to win @ +450
  • Draw @ +1800

According to bookmakers, Teofimo Lopez is a heavy favorite to retain his WBO title on Thursday night. The most likely outcome is that the champ wins by decision, with this result paying -125 odds. Next is Lopez to win by knockout at +188, while Ortiz’s best shot is on the judges’ cards at +700 odds.

Our Early Lopez vs Ortiz Predictions

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to decipher these odds and predict who is going to win Lopez vs Ortiz on Thursday. We say Lopez will come away victorious. Simply put, he’s got an edge over Ortiz in all departments–slightly more powerful, slightly more athletic, slightly more skillful. It should be a nice, tight fight, but those looking for an outright bet should back Lopez.

More specifically, here are some of the Lopez vs Ortiz bets that we recommend taking this week:

Lopez to Win By Knockout @ +188

We say there’s a more than likely chance that Lopez wins this one by knockout. It’s how 68 percent of his professional fights have ended across his career, and there’s a decent likelihood that percentage creeps a little higher later this week. 

The American has a furious, no-holds-barred boxing style where he overwhelms his opponents with volley after volley of punches. While he may not score a one-hitter for the highlights reel, there’s every chance that this one will end in a stoppage eventually.

Those saying that Ortiz is good enough to go the distance with Lopez, sure. He could well. But with odds of +188 for a knockout vs -125 for a decision, we say it’s worth the wager.

Fight Not to Go the Distance @ +120

Flowing off the above, a slightly more conservative bet is to simply back this one to end early.

While it’s more than likely that this will be at the hands of Lopez, it allows for the backdoor chance of Ortiz sneaking a knockout in somehow. Boxing is boxing, and all it takes is one burst from the 27-year-old. He may not be renowned for his big hits, but the man has eight professional knockouts to his name so there’s always a chance.

Lopez to Win Round 9-12 @ +500

Those after some really high returns on a Lopez vs Ortiz bet may want to consider betting on some alternate round groupings. 

We say that Ortiz will hold his own initially, and if a knockout does come, it’s most likely to be a late surge by Lopez. With a knockout in round 9-12 returning +500, this feels like not only an incredibly lucrative bet, but also an incredibly logical one as well.

But don’t just take it from us. Speaking to media ahead of the title fight, Lopez made a bold prediction about how his clash against Ortiz would unfold:

“There will definitely be a knockout,” said the 26-year-old.

You heard it here first.

Bren Gray is our resident Kiwi, and has been writing about sports since he could first string words together. He first fell in love with boxing when David Tua took on Lennox Lewis in 2000, and hasn't looked back since.