The Ultimate Half-Ass Gambling Guide To Canelo vs. Bivol

This weekend, boxing's biggest face in the sport, Canelo Alvarez, is back in action as he moves up to light heavyweight to challenge WBA titlist Dimitry Bivol live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, Saturday night on DAZN PPV. We've predicted here at NY Fights and broke down who we think will win. That piece didn't look at the gambling aspect of this weekend's action. This one will do its best to head you in the right direction to bring back some coin (for entertainment purposes only) in the event you are in the short-term investment market.

How Does Bivol Cash In As The Underdog?

As this goes this publish, the champion Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) coming into this fight is an underdog across the board courtesy of BetMGM. Why is this? Because he comes into this contest following a string of rather pedestrian title defenses against household names Umar Salamov, Craig Richards, and Lenin Castillo.

Dan Canobbio over at Compubox had the great stat that Bivol, in his last 51 rounds, he's thrown under 20 power shots in 44 of them.

Dmitry Bivol has some pretty historic jab numbers. Like otherworldly. But what I find extremely troubling for him vs. Canelo is that he's thrown under 20 power shots in 44 of his last 51 rounds. That's just not enough.

— Dan Canobbio (@DanCanobbio) May 3, 2022

That alone is why the play that doesn't seem realistic and the odds reflect it is Bivol winning against Alvarez by stoppage. The last knockout win Bivol in the ring was against Sullivan Barrera back in 2018. I've seen the prop at some sportsbooks available in triple digits, and while we all love a good punt on a longshot, you can get that same value in the draw result instead. Go that route if you want to take an ideal flyer.

By the way, Main Events. Never Forget.

So how does Bivol win and pull off the biggest upset in boxing? By finding a way to use his jab to keep Canelo at bay. It's the number one starting point that we will find out early in the fight if that is the game plan or something else. Bivol's jab isn't the same jab that gave Canelo a minor issue against Kovalev, but that and his size have the same possibility to be just as effective against Canelo.

Canelo Winning Is A Fore-Gone Conclusion?

May 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Saul Alvarez speaks at the final press conference ahead of the Matchroom Boxing card on Saturday, May 7, 2022 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom.

As many would expect, Alvarez (59-1-2, 39 KOs) comes into this bout a considerable favorite. The plotlines that kicked up this week make this feel like a “look-ahead” contest. It's well known that after Bivol, Alvarez is slated to face for the third time Gennadiy Golovkin. With that being the grand prize in the aftermath is why you get the running story of how many weight classes he will move up. Last time around, it was a catchweight at 190 lbs. against WBC cruiserweight champion Ilunga Makabu. This fight week, it's talk of Oleksander Usyk at a 200 lb. catchweight is being thrown around.

So pretty much the usual Canelo fight week buildup, involving these fantasy bookings and the everyday promotional boxing shade in what he refused to take this fight instead.

While yesterday's price is not today's price for Canelo, what I think is the best prop in this fight is him winning unanimously. Canelo will remind us why he is the pound-for-pound king in this sport in the second half of this fight. It's just one of those fights where the saying goes, “To be the man, you have to beat the man.” Well, we all know Canelo is the man. I'm expecting that to continue after Saturday to the joy or loathing of everyone else.

What about the rest of the card?

To the shock of no one involved in boxing, the Canelo undercard isn't anything significant. Montana Love, Marc Castro, and Zhang Zhilei are in action against favorable opposition. The feeling that anything can happen on the undercard doesn't seem likely for the underdogs this weekend.

There has been no buzz about any supporting action on this card, and rightfully so. The undercard action isn't appealing on paper, and the one fight everyone was looking forward to was scrapped this week in Filip Hrgovic. I took it to social, asking for feelers about it, and Twitter user Colossus of Croat confirmed this consensus.

Since Hrgovic is off my interest is completely gone.

— Colossus of Croat (@TheCroColossus) May 5, 2022

Unless you are rooting the favorites to lose, those picks all look like longshots. Cinco De Mayo weekend always feels good when big-time boxing is involved, and the tagline for the card is Legacy is Earned; looks pretty fitting here. Let's see whose legacy will do just that.

You can follow Marquis Johns on Twitter @weaksauceradio .