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Perez vs Mokaev Prediction: Mokaev’s Massive Opportunity

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Perez vs Mokaev Prediction: Mokaev’s Massive Opportunity

A potential flyweight title fight is on the line for one of the fighters included in this Perez vs Mokaev prediction. 

On Thursday morning, reigning UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja asserted that it “makes total sense” for him to fight Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil — if Mokaev can impress this weekend. 

For that reason alone, we believe this bout between top-tier flyweights is going to be the most intriguing — and entertaining — MMA fight that takes place this weekend. And our Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev prediction will make it clear why Pantoja's wish might be granted.

UFC Fight Night 238: Perez vs Mokaev Prediction

Alex Perez Preview

When it comes to Alex Perez — an American fighter with a 24-7 professional record, which includes five KO and seven submission victories — activity (or lack thereof) is his biggest concern.

Once a championship contender in the UFC's flyweight division, Perez has only fought one time since 2020 — which was a first round KO loss against the aforementioned Pantoja at UFC 277 in July 2022

While Perez has been scheduled for numerous bouts, it's always making it to the octagon that is a burden for Perez; proven by him having nine cancelled bouts since 2020.

Yet, when Perez does make it to fight night, there's no question that he's an impressive finisher with knockout power in both hands. 

Our Perez vs Mokaev prediction is that Perez will bring a well-rounded skillset into this fight — which he'll need every bit of, if he has any chance of defeating his undefeated opponent.

Muhammad Mokaev Preview

Ever since Muhammad Mokaev — an undefeated British/Russian fighter with a 10-0 professional record, which includes one KO and six submission victories — people have pegged him as a potential UFC champion.

And despite Mokaev still being merely 23 years old, it seems that he's now one big win against Perez away from getting that title opportunity.

There's no doubt that Mokaev has the wrestling and grappling advantage over Perez in this fight. While Mokaev has been in serious trouble on the ground before — like when he almost got his arm ripped off during UFC 286 — he's still an ultra elite grappler who should be able to get Perez to the ground (if he can avoid Perez's power). 

And if he does do that, it should be smooth sailing for Mokaev this weekend. 

Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev: Mokaev's Grappling Aptitude Wins Out

Our official Perez vs Mokaev prediction is that Muhammad Mokaev will win this fight by decision.

The clearest path to victory in this fight for Muhammad Mokaev is to out-wrestle Alex Perez. Ultimately, we believe that Mokaev will be content to dominate Perez on the ground, and his risk going for a submission. For that reason, we think Mokaev to win by decision (currently available at +150) is a great bet. 

Then again, Perez has lost by submission five times — so Mokaev to win by submission (also +150) is worth looking into, as well. 

Regardless of how he does it, we firmly believe Muhammad Mokaev will have his title opportunity cemented by the end of this weekend.

Grant Young is a sports writer from San Francisco. He has had two professional Muay Thai fights: he got knocked out in one, and got a knockout in the other. When it comes to his favorite fighters, it's Israel Adesanya, and then it's everyone else.