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UFC Betting Odds: Exciting Main Event Is Very Close
The wait is nearly over and the UFC betting odds are in! Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill will scrap for a rightful spot in the strawweight division's top ten. The numbers show a close fight.
UFC Vegas 73's strawweight main event is one of the most fun matchups that could've been made right now. Angela Hill is always down for a dog fight, and she's proved that time and time and time again(she fights a lot). Dern has the highest level of adroitness in the grappling department as anyone in the UFC, but that doesn't mean she's not going to come out swinging.
Strawweights take center stage!!@MackenzieDern vs @AngieOverkill headlining tomorrow at #UFCVegas73!
[ 4pmET / 1pmPT start | Full card LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/vcCTnonFsJ
— UFC (@ufc) May 19, 2023
Fireworks are almost promised and a statement should be made as this weekend's action hits it's paramount battle. Let's jump into the numbers backing the fight! The oddsmakers are all in agreeance that it's hard to pick a for sure winner, but Dern has the slight edge in this fight.
UFC Betting Odds: Moneyline
Nearly a coin-toss, Hill and Dern are both hard fighters to pick against. Hill may not have the prettiest record, but the women she's lost to are all top tier fighters. In fact, she's fought four of the girls in the strawweight top five. She's found herself on the wrong end of a lot of decisions, but she's still a winning fighter and that's why she'll be fighting Mackenzie Dern.
Dern is the favorite because her strength of schedule as of late has been, at least on paper, tougher. This, and the fact that she's a specialist in the grappling department makes her as much of a safe bet as you'll find in MMA.
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Mackenzie Dern -170 Angela Hill +145 |
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Mackenzie Dern -185 Angela Hill +150 |
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Mackenzie Dern -190 Angela Hill +150 |
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Dern is the favorite, but again, it's close. Hill has the skills and the mental to take the wind from Dern's sails. Despite being 1-2 in her last three, Mackenzie is a huge name in the division and a win over her is a big deal.
UFC Betting Odds: Method of Victory
The odds show that the most likely method of victory is the favorite, Dern, to utilize her grappling savvy and force a tap, a snap, or a nap. Hill's only been finished twice, and those two stoppages were via submission.
While it's worth mentioning that Hill's last submission loss was back in 2019, it's also worth reminding that Hill has not fought anyone with Dern's level of grappling capability. In fact, the last girl to submit Hill was later submitted by Dern.
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Dern via KO/TKO +1200 Dern via Submission +165 Dern via Decision +250 Hill via KO/TKO +900 Hill via Submission +3500 Hill via Decision +250 |
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Dern via KO/TKO +1200 Dern via Submission +150 Dern via Decision +225 Hill via KO/TKO +800 Hill via Submission +3000 Hill via Decision +200 |
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Dern via KO/TKO +1600 Dern via Submission +175 Dern via Decision +225 Hill via KO/TKO +850 Hill via Submission +2500 Hill via Decision +225 |
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Both common sense and betting odds show that it's farfetched for Hill to submit Dern. Sitting at around +3000, it seems very unlikely for that to happen, but that doesn't stop her from envisioning it. Plus, it's MMA, anything can happen! If you're looking to bet on the underdog, the safest bet would be by decision, that odd is chilling around the +250 neighborhood.
UFC Betting Odds: Round to Win
If there's a finish, when is it likely to happen? As the fight drags out, the likelihood of a finish decreases. While Hill is a volume fighter and as gritty as they get, she's not much of a finisher. Five of her fifteen wins are by KO/TKO, but Dern has never been stopped.
Again, anything can happen, but the odds are made by intuition and statistics. It does not seem likely that Hill will win by anything other than decision. With that being said, it's big money if Hill gets a stoppage! +4500 for a fifth round finish? What a gamble, but a lucrative one should the MMA gods grant it.
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Dern Round 1 +500 Dern Round 2 +700 Dern Round 3 +100 Dern Round 4 +1400 Dern Round 5 +2200 Hill Round 1 +2500 Hill Round 2 +3500 Hill Round 3 +4000 Hill Round 4 +4500 Hill Round 5 +5000 |
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Dern Round 1 + 400 Dern Round 2 + 750 Dern Round 3 + 1000 Dern Round 4 + 1400 Dern Round 5 + 2200 Hill Round 1 +2500 Hill Round 2 +2800 Hill Round 3 +3500 Hill Round 4 +4000 Hill Round 5 +4500 |
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Dern Round 1 +575 Dern Round 2 +800 Dern Round 3 +1050 Dern Round 4 +1600 Dern Round 5 +2400 Hill Round 1 +2500 Hill Round 2 +2800 Hill Round 3 +3500 Hill Round 4 +4000 Hill Round 5 +4500 |
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At around +500 for Dern to stop things in the first, and opening round submission is the safest bet should this fight not need the judges. Six of Mackenzie's seven submission wins came in the first round, the other submission was in the third round. Hence, the odds favoring a first round submission if the fight is to be stopped.
Both of the women in this main event are growing as fighters. Hill has won two of her last three and, though Dern lost her last fight, she put Yan Xiaonan through a tough battle. Since, Yan has disposed of a former champion within a round.
UFC Vegas 73: Where Does The Winner Go From Here?
Up, the winner goes up. Should Hill score the upset, she should absolutely have a spot in the top ten and there are plenty of fun fights there or her. Most of which are rematches. If it's Dern that gets the job done, the top five is calling and she'd be glad to answer. A name that jumps off of the page now is a rematch with Yan Xiaonan, seeing as how she's not getting a shot at the booked Weili Zhang.
However, Jessica Andrade is a fun fight for both Dern and Hill. I mean, Andrade is fun no matter who's put in front of her, but Dern and Hill would only embellish said fight.
