Caio Borralho welcomes Abus Magomedov to his home country of Brazil at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, as the former Contender Series fighter looks to take his record to 5-0 in the UFC. As we break down our Borralho vs Magomedov prediction, Borralho will no doubt have the crowd behind him when he takes on this dangerous Dagestan-born fighter in Sao Paulo.
Unlike his opponent, Magomedov will be looking to get back to winning ways after failing to pick up a victory in his second fight inside the Octagon, earlier this year. The two middleweights certainly pose an interesting threat to each other and the underdog’s record suggests this one won’t go the distance, one way or the other.
UFC Sao Paulo: Borralho vs Magomedov Prediction
Caio Borralho Preview
There is a reason why Borralho comes into this fight as the -265 favorite, and it’s not just because a boisterous crowd will be backing the man fighting in his city of residence.
The fighter known as ‘The Natural’ has an impressive record since he won twice on Dana White’s Contender Series, first defeating Aaron Jeffery by unanimous decision and then earning a UFC contract by stopping Jesse Murray with a first-round TKO.
Despite beating Murray with his fists, the 30-year-old is best known for control-heavy wrestling, winning three of his four UFC fights to date by unanimous decision.
His most recent win came against Michał Oleksiejczuk earlier this year and was his first early finish, earning a submission win via rear-naked choke in the second round. It certainly suggested he was ready for a step up in class next time out. The ‘Fighting Nerd’ averages just 2.59 strikes per minute in the Octagon and comes into this one with a reach disadvantage, so don’t expect him to want to stay on his feet too long.
In terms of what this means for our Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov prediction, chances are the Brazilian will look to take his opponent down and control the fight from the mat, searching for an early submission if the chance presents itself.
Abus Magomedov Preview
Magomedov may come into this fight as the betting underdog at +215 but there is no doubt that he’s still a live chance in this one.
The 33-year-old, fighting out of Germany, only has a two-fight record in the UFC to go on but he’s had more MMA fights than his opponent overall. After a mere 19 seconds in the promotion, which is how long his debut win over Dustin Stoltzfus lasted in a Performance of the Night victory, he went up against Sean Strickland back in July.
It was no huge surprise that Strickland came out on top that night, ending the fight late in the second round with a TKO, but it’s no slight on Magomedov that he lost to the man who would go on to win the UFC Middleweight Championship just two months later.
Whilst he’s not really had the chance to show off his submission skills inside the Octagon just yet, the Dagestan-born fighter has six wins on the mat throughout his MMA career and certainly poses a threat. However, it’s his pedigree on his feet where Borralho may have to be careful, with Magomedov landing 5.6 significant strikes per minute, granted he’s only been in the octagon for nine minutes in total.
A huge factor in our Borralho vs Magomedov prediction is the fact that the German doesn’t tend to go the distance. A whopping 24 of his 31 professional fights have ended early, including all five of his previous outings.
Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov: Back the second round submission
Our prediction is that Borralho will come out on top against Magomedov, especially if he can ride out any early attempts to end the fight with his fists by the underdog.
Magomedov’s record is exactly why an early finish for either fighter is available at -165. The German will likely try to come out of the blocks firing as he has done in his previous two UFC fights. That certainly worked in the win over Stolzfus but it was as much about catching someone off guard as it was his own brilliance.
After starting in promising fashion against Strickland a few months ago, Magomedov gassed out pretty early, which is exactly the kind of opening Borralho needs. If the Brazilian doesn’t catch him with a big left hand then you’d expect that his takedowns will be enough to get Magomedov down.
Our Borralho vs Magomedov prediction is that ‘The Natural’ will then be able to control the fight and look for a submission, which is why we think it’s likely to come in the second round.
Of course with his striking ability, and own history of submission wins, the UFC odds this weekend of +275 on Magomedov to get the win inside three rounds could be tempting value. Certainly, it’s a better bet than thinking this one will go the distance, considering the form he’s shown throughout his MMA career, that has extended into his short UFC run to date.
It’s sure to be a fun night in Brazil and the home fans will be hoping that this one brings the expected victory as they ramp up towards the main event. Borralho will be looking to secure victory as early as possible, and we predict he’ll do exactly that.