Pavlovich vs Blaydes Odds: This One’s Going to Be Close

Looking for the numbers? We've got you covered. Here are the Pavlovich vs Blaydes odds! 

Find out what the pundits and betters are thinking for tomorrow night's main event. A heavyweight five-rounder with title implications looming large, we've got Curtis Blaydes vs Sergei Pavlovich.

Curtis ‘Razor' Blaydes has been in the peripherals of that heavyweight strap for some time. Having fought Francis Ngannou twice, Derrick Lewis, Junior dos Santos, and many other huge names, Blaydes has an awe-inspiring résumé at heavyweight. As he looks to prove himself to be the next title contender, he's got yet another tough task ahead of him.

That tough task is one Sergei Pavlovich. One half of this weekend's titular bout, Pavlovich is as scary as scary gets.  17 wins, 14 knockouts, and only one loss — Sergei may not have the name value to his wins that Curtis does, but five first round stoppages in a row will almost always warrant one's name to be close to the title.

So, who is expected to win? How should they win? Let's get into that.

Pavlovich vs Blaydes Odds: Moneyline

The three bookies that I've referenced here all have Curtis Blaydes as an ever-so-slight favorite in the Pavlovich vs Blaydes odds. Though one may think that it's his strength of schedule that has Blaydes a slight favorite, I think it's more than that.

Pavlovich's sole loss was in his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem. Yeah, a debut against Overeem, the UFC expected a lot out of this guy. And, in total, Pavlovich has delivered – just not in his debut. Overeem was able to take him down, control him, and score the first round TKO win. Does that game plan sound familiar?

Certainly, Blaydes will look to do what he does, which is get on top and drop some heavy leather and slicing elbows. Easier said than done, however. Sergei has grown so much since this 2018 loss. The power in his hands, the rounds starting on the feet, the growth as a fighter — these are all reasons why Sergei is only a slight dog in this bout.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes Odds: Method of Victory

The UFC Vegas 71 odds seems to be favoring a knockout come main event time. Per these numbers, the method of victory that's most likely is a Blaydes knockout or TKO. And, well, yeah, betting on a guy who's won 71% of his victories by KO/TKO isn't all that outlandish.

An interesting statistic for this fight is that when combining Blaydes' three losses, and Pavlovich's single loss, there are 4 losses by way of KO/TKO. And yeah, it's the heavyweight division and these guys are fighting the hardest hitters in the sport, but beyond that, both fighters have that “go out on my shield” aura to them.

Neither of these fighters have a submission win or loss between them, so that explains why the odds for a submission stoppage are so unlikely. In regard to the fight going all five rounds… also unlikely, but nowhere near as unlikely as the Pavlovich flying triangle victory that I, a fiscally irresponsible person, still may put money on.

What Round Will Pavlovich vs Blaydes End?

As the fight drags out, the less likely we're looking at a finish. Of course, these are heavyweights; the best knockouts are usually seen in the earlier goings of a fight for this division. That's the typical heavyweight paradigm, at least. But, these fighters are at the top of the top of their division and their games.

Both Pavlovich and Blaydes have a five-round decision win under their belt, and they'll probably bring the requisite cardio to the octagon tomorrow. But, if you're looking for a safe bet, it's looking like an early end to our main event is what will keep one from losing money.

These numbers are still slightly favoring Blaydes to get the job done in the first round. But, as I'm sure you know, this is MMA and anything is possible. Who likes a safe bet anyway, right(once again, I'm fiscally irresponsible)? The odds for Blaydes to get it done in one are at around the +200 area. For a Sergei first round stoppage, ballpark, we're looking at +300.

Title Shot Next?

I've been saying it all week: 2023 has been a confusing year for the heavyweight division. The start of the year saw Francis Ngannou, who was then the champion, leave the UFC due to conflict of interest. You know, the typical things fighters have been fighting for. Both the UFC and Ngannou stuck to their guns, and I'm still not quite sure who won the battle. The UFC is moving forward, but there could be some huge things up next for Francis.

So, with that, and the return of Jon Jones as he jumped up to heavyweight to snap his three-year hiatus, we've got a division in an odd spot. Jones was able to make beating Ciryl Gane look easier than following traffic laws(sorry, Jon), and he's now all but booked against Stipe Miocic. Jones mentioned in a tweet that this could very well be his retirement fight.

Regardless of if/how Jones vs Stipe goes, the winner of Pavlovich and Blaydes should be fighting for gold in their next scrap.