With Islam Makhachev set for the 30th fight of his professional MMA career at UFC 330, the reigning welterweight champion has an incredible record outside the cage as well. Across all 29 of his previous bouts, from the regional scene to UFC title fights, Makhachev has never entered a fight as the betting underdog. That says plenty about the faith sportsbooks have always had in the Dagestani. Here’s a look at Makhachev’s betting odds throughout his career.
The Pre-UFC Chapter of Islam Makhachev’s Career
Before touching down in the UFC, Islam Makhachev quietly built an 11-fight undefeated streak across regional promotions, including M-1 Global, ProFC, and Tsumada FC. Even as an unproven prospect, oddsmakers recognized his Sambo world-champion pedigree. (Note: No major betting lines or data found, but the Dagestani was still a massive favorite.)
- Magomed Bekbolatov (Tsumada FC 4, Aug 2010) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
- Tengiz Khuchua (M-1 Selection 2011, Feb 2011) – Win via KO/TKO (Punches), R1.
- Martiros Grigoryan (ProFC 28, May 2011) – Win via KO/TKO (Punches), R1.
- Vladimir Egoyan (ProFC 29, Jul 2011) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
- Magomed Ibragimov (Tsumada FC 5, Jul 2011) – Win via Submission (Triangle Choke), R2.
- Miguel Grigoryan (Siberian FC 1, Dec 2011) – Win via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), R1.
- Anatoly Kormilkin (Lion’s Fights 2, Sep 2012) – Win via Submission (Armbar), R1.
- Mansour Barnaoui (M-1 Challenge 38, Apr 2013) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
- Rander Junio (M-1 Challenge 41, Aug 2013) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
- Yuri Ivlev (M-1 Challenge 49, Jun 2014) – Win via Submission (Armbar), R1.
- Ivica Truscek (M-1 Challenge 51, Sep 2014) – Win via Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke), R3.
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UFC Debut and Only Career Loss
After spending nearly four years on the regional circuit, Islam Makhachev made his long-awaited UFC debut in May 2015. His second Octagon appearance, however, remains the only blemish on his record, as Adriano Martins knocked him out at UFC 192. Even then, sportsbooks backed Makhachev, with the Dagestani entering the bout as the betting favorite.
- Leo Kuntz (UFC 187, May 2015) – Win via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), R2.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-475) - Adriano Martins (UFC 192, Oct 2015) – Loss via KO/TKO (Punch), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-125)
Islam Makhachev’s Road to the UFC Lightweight Title
Following his loss to Adriano Martins, Islam Makhachev bounced back in dominant fashion, putting together a 10-fight winning streak while Khabib Nurmagomedov ruled the lightweight division. Along the way, he methodically dismantled rising contenders, elite strikers, and accomplished grapplers, eventually earning his long-awaited shot at UFC gold.
- Chris Wade (UFC Fight Night 94, Sep 2016) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-130) - Nik Lentz (UFC 208, Feb 2017) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-290) - Gleison Tibau (UFC 220, Jan 2018) – Win via KO/TKO (Punch), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-300) - Kajan Johnson (UFC on FOX 30, Jul 2018) – Win via Submission (Armbar), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-570) - Arman Tsarukyan (UFC Fight Night 149, Apr 2019) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-350) - Davi Ramos (UFC 242, Sep 2019) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-380) - Drew Dober (UFC 259, Mar 2021) – Win via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke), R3.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-400) - Thiago Moisés (UFC on ESPN 26, Jul 2021) – Win via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), R4.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-700) - Dan Hooker (UFC 267, Oct 2021) – Win via Submission (Kimura), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-440) - Bobby Green (UFC Fight Night 202, Feb 2022) – Win via KO/TKO (Punches), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-760)
UFC Championship Era & Defenses
Even when facing the most dangerous champions in UFC history, oddsmakers kept Islam Makhachev as the favorite. Whether it was for the vacant 155lbs gold against Charles Oliveira or for the welterweight gold in another division against Jack Della Maddalena.
- Charles Oliveira (UFC 280, Oct 2022) – Win via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke), R2.
Context: Oliveira was riding an 11-fight win streak, yet Makhachev remained a favorite.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-166) - Alexander Volkanovski (UFC 284, Feb 2023) – Win via Decision (Unanimous).
Context: Facing the P4P #1 featherweight champion on home soil in Australia.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-335) - Alexander Volkanovski 2 (UFC 294, Oct 2023) – Win via KO/TKO (Head Kick and Punches), R1.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-230) - Dustin Poirier (UFC 302, Jun 2024) – Win via Submission (D’Arce Choke), R5.
Closing Odds: Makhachev (-400) - Renato Moicano (UFC 311, Jan 2025) – Win via Submission (D’Arce Choke), R1. Closing Odds: Makhachev (-835)
- Jack Della Maddalena (UFC 322, Nov 2025) – Win via Decision (Unanimous). Closing Odds: Makhachev (-298)
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Heading into his welterweight title defense against Ian Garry at UFC 330 on August 15, Makhachev is once again a heavy betting favorite. Most sportsbooks have the champion priced between -345 and -390, while Garry sits as the underdog at +240 to +280.
It will be interesting to see whether the Irishman can pull off the upset and hand Makhachev just the second loss of his professional MMA career, or if the reigning 170-pound champion extends his remarkable run to 17 straight inside the Octagon as the sport’s most trusted betting favorite.
Betting Data: Courtesy of Best Fight Odds, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM & BetOnline.
Kshitiz Kumar Singh is a UFC Writer at NY Fights with over three years of experience in sports journalism and content creation. Known for his sharp storytelling and passion for combat sports, he has written in-depth features on stars like Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, and Ilia Topuria. Before joining NY Fights, Kshitiz worked as a UFC Editor at EssentiallySports while currently serving as a WWE Editor at FirstSportz. His admiration for legends like Georges St-Pierre continues to inspire his detailed and engaging MMA coverage. Whether he’s covering the Octagon or the squared circle, Kshitiz is committed to delivering accurate, high-quality content. Outside the world of sports, he’s a dedicated cinephile, often found practicing monologues from his favorite Al Pacino films, combining his love for cinema with storytelling.
