Conor McGregor is finally stepping back into the Octagon on July 11 at UFC 329. It has been five long years since that brutal leg break against Dustin Poirier, and he is coming back as the betting underdog against Max Holloway. The 170-pound main event is headlining at T-Mobile Arena to wrap up International Fight Week.
A lot of fans are surprised that McGregor is the underdog, but it makes sense considering his massive layoff compared to how active Holloway has been. Even Jose Aldo, the guy Conor knocked out in 13 seconds back in 2015, shared his thoughts on the matchup, which sounds kind of terrifying for Holloway right now.
Jose Aldo’s Warning on Conor McGregor’s Chances Against Max Holloway
Aldo is a UFC Hall of Fame legend and one of the greatest featherweights ever. Known as “The King of Rio,” the Brazilian fighter finished his career with a 32-10 record. He won the undisputed featherweight championship twice and defended it seven times in a row, ruling the division for a decade. He officially retired in May 2025 after his final fight at UFC 315.
Speaking to UFC media, he didn’t dance around the matchup, saying, “McGregor may be the betting underdog, but honestly, I think he has a better chance of beating Max today than he had of beating Khabib back then. The favorite is Max Holloway.”
‼️🎙️Jose Aldo:
“McGregor may be the betting underdog, but honestly, I think he has a better chance of beating Max today than he had of beating Khabib back then. The favorite is Max Holloway.” pic.twitter.com/c8MN80DFfr
— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) July 4, 2026
Aldo’s logic makes a lot of sense. It’s not that Conor lacks skill, it’s just that Holloway has stayed incredibly active while “The Notorious” has been sitting on the sidelines for five years. Because of that massive layoff, nobody really knows what McGregor’s cardio or timing will look like when he steps back in.
But Aldo didn’t completely count him out either. He made sure to mention that the Irishman still has that crazy knockout power and elite striking, so a finish wouldn’t surprise him at all. Basically, the biggest question mark isn’t Max. It’s which version of Conor shows up.
Bringing up the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight is a big comparison here. Back in 2018, the Russian fighter dragged McGregor into deep water and finished him via neck crank in round four. Comparing this fight to that one shows just how tough a test Holloway is going to be at UFC 329, though the 37-year-old is entering the octagon with a “Terminator” mindset.
How the 2013 History and the Records Stack the Deck
McGregor (22-6) and Holloway (27-9) actually fought once before, all the way back in 2013 when they were both young featherweights, and McGregor won by decision. Thirteen years later, things look completely different. Holloway has stayed incredibly busy, while McGregor hasn’t stepped into the cage since breaking his leg in July 2021.
The 170-pound weight class makes things even more interesting. McGregor has fought at this weight before against Nate Diaz, but it is Holloway’s first time moving up to welterweight. Aldo thinks ring rust and activity matter way more than weight and experience on paper. So, no doubt, McGregor has a massive challenge ahead of him on July 11.
