UFC Vegas 77 Prediction: Azaitar vs Prado – Don’t Blink!

UFC Fight Night is here! this weekend, Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva take centre stage in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, we are here to offer our prediction for the third fight on the main card this weekend (and a real sleeper fight as well); Ottman Azaitar and Francisco Prado – two unranked lightweights with a lot of talent and a lot to prove. Read on below to find our prediction for this fight!

Ottman Azaitar: Aiming to Bounce Back

Ottman Azaitar is heading into this fight in circumstances that he is not used to – losing.

In his most recent matchup at UFC 281, “The Bulldozer” got ran over by Matt “The Steamrolla” Frevola in a violent knockout in the first round. Don’t let this fool you, though. Matt Frevola is a very good fighter, one to which there is certainly no shame at all in losing.

Ottman Azaitar is a very exciting fighter. In all three of his fights in the UFC, he has not seen the second round in any of them. In fact, both of his wins in the UFC have been first round knockouts, which is extremely impressive. Azaitar is one of those fighters that is very tough to make a prediction on, because you never know what way his fights are going to go. Despite his loss to Frevola, Ottman Azaitar should be entering this fight with a lot of confidence, because he has proven that he has what it takes to get the job done.

Ottman Azaitar will be hoping to get back to winning ways on Saturday night with a win over Francisco Prado. (Image Credit: MMA Fighting)

Francisco Prado: Maiden Win on the Horizon?

Francisco Prado might be without a win so far in his UFC career, but, like with Ottman Azaitar, do not let the record fool you.

Francisco Prado was given a tough ask when making his UFC debut, being match up with the much more experienced Jamie Mullarkey at UFC 284. Despite giving a very good account of himself, Prado suffered the first loss of his professional career, a unanimous decision. Despite that, Francisco Prado displayed a lot of the qualities that have made him such a highly touted prospect.

If you examine his record, you will find that Francisco Prado is not only a very dangerous lightweight, but also one with an extremely diverse and varied arsenal. Of his eleven wins prior to joining the UFC, five of those came via knockout, and six same via submission, and some of those submissions alone are very impressive. He has Von Flue choke on his resumé, as well as a variety of triangle, armbar and rear naked choke submissions. In short – Francisco Prado is a very impressive prospect; he is also a fighter that is very difficult to make predictions for.

Ottman Azaitar: Path to Victory – Use Those Heavy Hands

As mentioned above, both of Ottman Azaitar’s UFC wins have come via explosive KOs. And I don’t really see another path to victory for Azaitar beyond that.

If Ottman can keep this fight standing, then he always has a very good chance of being the better striker of the two in the octagon. His judgement of distance and range is generally always very good, also. If he can implement his tempo and his rhythm early on in this fight, then his movement and footwork should give him and excellent base upon which to build a victory in this fight. As also already mentioned, Ottman also possesses formidable knockout power, so if he is able to detonate one of those shots, then he could well put Prado in a world of trouble if he smells blood.

Francisco Prado: Path to Victory – Embrace the Variety

Francisco Prado’s biggest strength (and biggest path to victory) in this fight is how well-rounded he is, as well as the variety of fighting arsenal he possesses. No matter where this fight goes, Francisco Prado should be very comfortable.

For Francisco Prado, variety is his biggest strength. I give him a very good chance if he can get this fight to the ground. (Image Credit: UFC)

As I’ve already outlined above, Prado has a nearly 50-50 split between his type of finishes in his professional career. He can knock opponents out, and he can also submit his opponents too. Furthermore, as I’ve also outlined, the variety of submission finishes that Francisco Prado has should give him a lot of confidence. If the fight hits the deck, Prado can fight off his back just as well as he can fight offensively. This surely gives Prado a very positive feeling going into this fight.

In short, Francisco Prado should embrace the variety of his weaponry as his best path to victory in this fight.

Official Prediction: Very Tough to Call

This fight is (and for good reason) very, very tough to call.

On the one hand, if this fight stays on the feet, I see Ottman Azaitar having the advantage. His experience, as well as the crispness of his striking should give him the upper hand against Prado. Furthermore, I think Ottmar Azaitar’s knockout power is a huge asset to him, and could be a deciding factor in this fight.

However, I also think that the balance dramatically swings in Francisco Prado’s favour if the fight hits the ground. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess is a huge factor here, and could win him the fight if he can get it to the ground. Don’t get me wrong – Ottman Azaitar is no slouch on the ground, but career resumés tell me that Francisco Prado is a predator on the mat, and I strongly favour him if the fight does go that way.

I think the majority of this fight will stay on the feet, and because of that, I think Ottman Azaitar will win this fight. (Image Credit: ESPN)

My prediction, ultimately, is that I see most of this fight staying on the feet, and therefore, I think Ottman Azaitar will win this fight. I don’t know if he’ll be able to put away an extremely tough fighter in Francisco Prado, but I think enough of the fight will stay on the feet for him to take advantage of it.

Official prediction: Ottman Azaitar to win via unanimous decision.

Thanks for reading our prediction – who do you think wins on Saturday night? Be sure to tune in to UFC Fight Night: Vegas 77 on Saturday, July 15th!