NY Fights Predictions: Canelo vs Berlanga Tonight

Argue with me. Canelo Álvarez remains the face of boxing worldwide.

So it's still an event when Álvarez and WBA mandatory contender Edgar Berlanga of Brooklyn meet face-to-face tonight for a Mexican Independence Day Weekend fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Can't you just feel the excitement?

Canelo Álvarez says he still loves boxing and has no plans to stop. Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

Sarcarm aside, it's not known how much longer Álvarez of Guadalajara, Mexico (61-2-2, 39 KOs), currently the WBC, WBA, and WBO Super Middleweight World champion, will choose to continue boxing. For now, he seems as relaxed and enjoying himself more than ever. But he will not be the face of boxing all that much longer. He is still well worth seeing.

Credit to Edgar Berlanga for dreaming big, and an upset isn't impossible. Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

Berlanga of Brooklyn (22-0, 17 KOs) is a fighter of Puerto Rican heritage with just enough of a following and resume to get the nod. He's done his part to talk up the Mexican vs Puerto Rico rivalry and do a little trashing of the champion.

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Both men have predicted knockout wins. It would be the first for Álvarez since he knocked out Caleb Plant in 2021.

“I’ve prepared for the knockout. I love the feeling of a knockout, and I’m gonna do my best to get it done,” declared Álvarez. I just can’t wait for Saturday night. This is going to be a great matchup for the people.”

Berlanga said he would make the most of the opportunity of a lifetime.

“I’m a knockout artist. Every fighter wants the knockout. We know that he’s a legend, and we can’t just go swing for the fences. We have to do it the right way. Sixth-round knockout, that’s what we’re going for. But we’re ready for all 12 rounds if we have to.”

The fight is just hours away, so it's prediction time for NY Fights for the main event and key undercard matchups.

NY Fights Predictions: Álvarez in 8

Canelo Álvarez says he still loves boxing and has no plans to stop. Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

Álvarez is a prohibitive favorite. Any prediction for this fight focuses on the how, and not the who.

Yes, Edgar Berlanga has power. His remaining skillset is still too immature to challenge the ring command, speed, footwork, defense, and precision of Álvarez. Should Álvarez make a mistake and Berlanga hits him flush, the Mexican star has among the best chins in boxing. If Gennadiy Golovkin couldn’t wobble Canelo, Berlanga won’t.

Álvarez admitted he could have stopped Jaime Munguia in May but allowed him to finish on his feet as a show of respect for his countryman. He will not grant this courtesy to Berlanga. Álvarez will school Berlanga, much as he did Caleb Plant. Álvarez will be too elusive, using Berlanga’s body for target practice. As damage accumulates, Berlanga will eventually yield. TKO win for Álvarez in round 8.

Lara vs Garcia Predictions: Lara By Knockout

Erislandy Lara will defend his middleweight title against Danny Garcia. Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

In the co-main, WBA World Middleweight champion Erislandy Lara of Cuba (30-3-3, 18 KOs) faces former two-division champion Danny “Swift” Garcia of Philadelphia (37-3, 21 KOs). The fight is being contested at a catchweight of 157 pounds, and both men made this limit.

Garcia's best days were in the 140-pound division. He hasn't fought in two years but says it wasn't by design. He chose to move up to middleweight to challenge himself and make his bid for the Boxing Hall of Fame. He didn't ask the members of the Boxing Writers of America whether this is what it would take to get our vote. Garcia blew out Jose Benavidez Jr. in his last fight at super welterweight two years ago.

If Garcia thinks he's going up against the old version of Lara, a classic Cuba tactician, he and father/trainer Angel Garcia haven't watched Lara's recent fights. At age 41, Lara has turned himself into a power puncher. He has a three-fight knockout streak and has won four of his last five bouts by stoppage. You could argue it's because Lara's legs are showing wear and tear, and he's had to change his approach.

But we say it over and over: Activity matters. Ring rust is real. Garcia hasn't been at his best at higher weights and you can't be sharp two years out of the ring. Lara will catch him just as he caught Michael Zerafa by surprise in the second round of his last fight. Knockout win for Lara in the second half of the fight. 

Plant vs McCumby Predictions: Plant By TKO

Caleb Plant and Trevor McCumby will settle their differences in the ring. Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

Caleb Plant of Las Vegas via Nashville (22-2, 13 KOs) has gained fans despite his losses to David Benavidez Jr. and Canelo Álvarez. He gives it all in the ring, and he's got bad attitude and a mean streak for days. His opponent Trevor McCumby of Glendale, Arizona (28-0, 21 KOs) seems cut from the same cloth. The two don't like each other one bit and haven't been shy about saying so in the lead-up to this fight.

Expect an all-out banger between Plant and McCumby, and expect Plant to make McCumby pay for his lack of respect. McCumby's numbers may look impressive, but dig into his record and there are no significant names there. Three of his last four opponents had double-digit losses.  McCumby has also been knocked down in three of his fights.

Plant's experience against the top talents will position him to take it to McCumby, just like he took it to Anthony Dirrell. Here's hoping the referee assigned to the fight will show McCumby some mercy and stop it if Plant is beating the tar out of him, and that's what we predict. TKO 7 for Plant.

Romero vs Jaimes Predictions: Jaimes by Decision

Rolly Romero needs to stop his downhill slide fast. Can he do it against Manuel Jaimes? Photo: Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

Rolly Romero of Las Vegas (15-2, 13 KOs) brings the fun to his fights, if fun is defined as Romero's wild outfits and wacky remarks leading up to a fight. His opponent Manuel Jaimes of Stockton, California (16-1-1, 11 KOs) hasn't tried to keep up with Rolly. He has laughed a lot of it off and matter-of-factly says he's ready to introduce himself on a big stage.

Jaimes has fairly typical California and Tijuana fights on his record, and many of the no-names in these venues are shoe-leather tough guys who are hardhat and lunch pail fighters grinding out a living. Romero has lost the last two of three fights officially, and the third was the ridiculous stoppage of Ismael Barroso who was dominating Romero on the scorecards.

We will see what Romero has left. I think he's ripe for the picking by a young, hungry fighter no one has expectations for. Jaimes by decision, and he might get help from a knockdown or two to convince the judges.

Fulton vs Castro Predictions: Fulton by TKO

Stephen Fulton aims to get back on track against Carlos Castro. Photo Ryan Hafey, Premier Boxing Champions

It's good to see Stephen”Cool Boy” Fulton of Philadelphia (21-1, 8 KOs) back in the ring after taking a hard loss to Naoya Inoue. There is no shame in this, and Fulton joins a long list of talents with an Inoue loss in common. He faces Carlos Castro of Phoenix (30-2, 14 KOs), a serviceable opponent who poses no danger to Fulton.

It is a rehab assignment deep on the card, appearing on the “free” streaming portion of the undercard. Castro was stopped by Brandon Figueroa two years ago, and before that lost a split decision to Luis Nery. Fulton should be plenty motivated to try and stop Castro. TKO stoppage for Fulton, ninth round or later.

READ MORE: Canelo and Berlanga Talk It Up In Las Vegas