UFC 326 is set for March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, headlined by a long-awaited rematch between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. The bout will be contested for the coveted BMF title, adding extra intrigue to an already compelling matchup and offering bettors a prime opportunity to find value plays that could act as funds to bridge the gap between risk and reward on fight night. Holloway, a former undisputed featherweight champion, enjoyed a dominant run at 145 pounds with three successful title defenses between 2017 and 2020. Oliveira, meanwhile, captured lightweight gold and authored one of the division’s most memorable title reigns.
With notable wins over elite names like Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler, both men bring elite resumes into what promises to be a memorable main event. The co-main event features pivotal middleweight action as Reinier de Ridder takes on Caio Borralho in a bout with major title implications. Interestingly, both contenders are coming off setbacks that snapped their winning streaks, making this matchup a crucial opportunity to rebound and move closer to a shot at the belt. Amid all the excitement, here’s a look at the early odds for the UFC 326 headliners, along with some predictions heading into fight night.
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira: UFC 326 Main Event Betting Odds and Prediction
According to DraftKings, Max Holloway has opened as a -200 favorite against Charles Oliveira, who sits at +154. Over at FanDuel, ‘Blessed’ is also favored at -170, with ‘Do Bronx’ listed as a +140 underdog, reflecting early market confidence in Holloway’s pace and durability.
The UFC 326 main event brings together two of the sport’s most beloved action fighters, each known for thriving in chaos both on the feet and on the ground. Oliveira’s resume, highlighted by a record-setting 21 finishes, speaks to his opportunistic brilliance, but this rematch ultimately comes down to a stark equation: volume vs. vulnerability.
Holloway’s striking output has reached historic territory. He holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history (3,655) and averages an incredible 7.24 significant strikes per minute, nearly double Oliveira’s 3.48. His relentless pace acts like a compounding tax on opponents’ cardio and durability, while maintaining a steady 47% accuracy despite the sheer volume.
He also owns multiple striking records, including the single-fight mark of 445 significant strikes landed against Calvin Kattar. On the other side, Oliveira’s recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 exposed a recurring defensive tendency that leans into exchanges with his chin available, a risk against a precision-volume striker like Holloway.
The Brazilian likely needs a chaotic scramble to create openings, but Holloway’s 84% takedown defense makes prolonged grappling exchanges difficult to establish. As the fight wears on, the defensive gap of Holloway’s 59% striking defense versus Oliveira’s 51% could become increasingly significant.
On the grappling front, Oliveira averages 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy, suggesting he may struggle to consistently bring the fight to the mat against Holloway’s improved wrestling base.
While Oliveira’s submission arsenal is among the most dangerous in MMA history, many of his best opportunities emerge during wild scrambles or when opponents are hurt, scenarios that Holloway’s durability and composure often mitigate.
So the verdict for this bout is that Oliveira’s aggression is both his greatest weapon and his biggest liability. Pressuring forward with a low guard against a high-output technician who dismantled opponents with pace and precision is a risky proposition. Expect Holloway to chip away with body-to-head combinations, steadily breaking down Oliveira’s defenses before capitalizing in an exchange.
Prediction: Max Holloway via TKO (Round 3).
Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho: UFC 326 Co-Main Event Betting Odds and Prediction
Also at UFC 326, the middleweight co-main event pits Reinier de Ridder against Caio Borralho, with both contenders looking to rebound after their winning streaks ended in recent outings.
De Ridder suffered his first UFC setback against Brendan Allen in their Vancouver headliner last October, where his corner stopped the bout after 4 rounds after a grueling battle. Before that, the Dutchman had built strong momentum with notable wins over former champion Robert Whittaker, Kevin Holland, and Bo Nickal, competing five times in a single year during his run.
Borralho also tasted defeat recently when he dropped a competitive decision to Nassourdine Imavov at UFC Paris, ending a long unbeaten stretch. Before that, he showcased his ceiling with an impressive win over Jared Cannonier, compiling a strong UFC record of 7-1.
From a betting perspective, FanDuel lists Borralho as a -235 favorite with de Ridder at +180, while DraftKings has the Brazilian around -225 against +185 for the Dutchman, signaling market confidence in Borralho’s well-rounded skill set.
Stylistically, the matchup leans toward Borralho. De Ridder’s success hinges on securing dominant grappling positions and hunting submissions, but Borralho’s 76% takedown defense and Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree make him difficult to control.
If forced into extended striking exchanges, Borralho’s measured pace, landing roughly 3.9 significant strikes per minute, and composure should allow him to accumulate damage. Cardio and durability could be decisive factors.
Borralho has shown the ability to adjust and push a steady pace, while de Ridder enters with lingering questions after fading late in his last outing. Moreover, with lingering health and recovery issues weeks after UFC Vancouver, RDR’s durability is definitely in question. Over three rounds, Borralho’s discipline and defensive awareness give him a clearer path to control the fight.
Prediction: Caio Borralho by decision.
Kshitiz Kumar Singh is a UFC Writer at NY Fights with over three years of experience in sports journalism and content creation. Known for his sharp storytelling and passion for combat sports, he has written in-depth features on stars like Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, and Ilia Topuria. Before joining NY Fights, Kshitiz worked as a UFC Editor at EssentiallySports while currently serving as a WWE Editor at FirstSportz. His admiration for legends like Georges St-Pierre continues to inspire his detailed and engaging MMA coverage. Whether he’s covering the Octagon or the squared circle, Kshitiz is committed to delivering accurate, high-quality content. Outside the world of sports, he’s a dedicated cinephile, often found practicing monologues from his favorite Al Pacino films, combining his love for cinema with storytelling.