UFC & MMA Betting

UFC Fight Night 238 Predictions: Full Card, Prelims Betting Picks



After several weeks on the road, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for a Fight Night, headlined by Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev. Here are our UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

UFC Fight Night 238 Predictions: Our Top Picks

Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Prediction

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is currently 12th in the division rankings. The 35-year-old fighter from Suriname has 13 wins (12 by knockout) and five losses. He transitioned to mixed martial arts from kickboxing.

In his last couple of fights, he defeated American Chris Daukaus (knockout) but then lost his only bout in 2023 against Jailton Almeida (Submission). Overall, he has been alternating between wins and losses since the start of his UFC career and has a record of 7-5 in the promotion.

Shamil Gaziev is really speedrunning through the UFC, isn't he? The fighter from Dagestan, Russia will hold his second fight in the promotion after making his debut in December 2023. Before moving to the UFC, the Russian, who competes under the flag of Bahrain, fought in Brave CF and AMC.

In his last couple of fights, first as part of Dana White's Contender Series, before signing the contract, he defeated American Greg Velasco (submission) and then obliterated Martin Buday in his debut. One fight in and he is already headlining a Fight Night.

The 33-year-old Gaziev has 12 wins (8 by knockout, one by decision, two by submission) and not a single defeat at the professional level.

We love Rozenstruik but he has proven that he is not good enough to be among the Top 10 in the heavyweight division. He defeated legendary veterans but failed as soon as he faced tougher opposition. Gaziev is still a new name on the roster and we cannot guarantee how good he truly is but we believe that he has monstrous power. Therefore, we pick Gaziev for our UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

• Gaziev to Win

Perez vs Mokaev Prediction

Muhammad Mokaev is currently ranked 8th in the division rankings while Alex Perez remains in 7th place. Perez has had the worst possible luck in the last three years. He lost his last couple of bouts and has been away from the Octagon for two years because of injuries. In 2020, he fought for the Flyweight title against Deiveson Figueiredo and lost by submission in the first round. Since then, he has only fought once. In the past, he had notable victories over talented fighters like Espinosa and Formiga.

The native of Dagestan, who fights under the English flag, has been competing in mixed martial arts at a professional level since 2020 and has not yet achieved serious results. Before signing a contract with the UFC, he competed for Brave CF and the Scottish Celtic Gladiator.

The 23-year-old fighter has 11 wins (two by knockout, three by decision, six by submission) and not a single defeat. In his last couple of fights in March and October 2023, he defeated Jafel Filho (submission) and Tim Elliott (Submission).

Unfortunately for Perez, Muhammad Mokaev is an absolute unit for this weight class and we believe that he has every possible advantage. Perez hardly has knockout power and his ground game is not that brilliant nowadays. Mokaev will probably win this bout and we pick him for our UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

• Mokaev to Win

UFC Fight Night 238 Prelims Predictions: Too Many Debutants

As soon as we move from the main card, the level of the fighters drops significantly. Half of this event will feature debutants and we picked one of those curious bouts as our sole prelim pick.

Oliveira vs Sopaj Prediction

Sopai and Oliveira will meet in the Bantamweight division. Sopai agreed to replace the injured Yanis Ghemmouri less than a week before the fight. The 23-year-old has never lost early in his career. Sopai extended his winning streak to three on December 30 when he submitted Geovane Vargas with strikes in the first round of their Allstars Fight Night bout.

On the other hand, Oliveira cemented his place in the UFC in September when he knocked out Victor Madrigal just over three minutes into the first round of their Dana White's Contender Series bout. A former UAE Warriors champion, “Lok Dog” trains with Team Sombra in Porto Alegre, Brazil, and will make his debut with a record of 19-3-0.

Both fighters look promising and will have their chances in this matchup. However, we believe that Oliveira will be better prepared for this bout, given that he had a full camp and Sopai entered the roster with a week to train. Moreover, Oliveira seems like a more technical fighter. He is not a massive favorite and we find value in the odds. We pick Oliveira for our UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

• Oliveira to Win

UFC Fight Night 238 Full Card Predictions: The Best of the Rest

Going back to the main card, we simply had to say a few words about this next bout, as it presented us with a solid opportunity for an easy win.

Nurmagomedov vs Almakhan Prediction

The Nurmagomedov name lives on through Umar and he returns to the Octagon for the first time since January 2023. The Russian fighter remains undefeated with 16 wins (2 by KO, 7 by Submission, 7 by Decision) and is on a 4-win streak in the UFC. He was supposed to fight Cory Sandhagen in August but withdrew due to an injury.

The curious part here is the opponent he was given for his return – Khazakhstan's Bekzat Almakhan, a debutant. Competing for Triumph Fights in Kazakhstan, Almakhan battled through regional competition in Europe and Asia. The 26-year-old fighter has earned 13 of his 14 career wins by knockout, TKO, or submission, and seven of them in the first round.

Almakhan is truly a talented fighter and we guarantee that he has a bright future ahead of him. However, he is no Umar Nurmagomedov and we do not see how he would end the streak of the Russian. We have to pick Khabib's cousin for our UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

• Nurmagomedov to Win

Vlad is a former amateur MMA fighter. After a series of injuries, he found a different way to connect with the sport and its fanbase - through writing. He's been covering everything-UFC for over 5 years on various platforms and has been part of the team at NYFights since early 2022.