Moicano vs Dober Prediction: Submission Specialist vs Knockout Artist

UFC continues its huge 2024 with the latest Fight Night card coming out of Las Vegas and the UFC Apex on Saturday night. 

The judges might get the chance to sit back, relax and watch the action unfold in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 235 as two men not known for letting the scorecards dictate their results face each other. It’s a lightweight banger as Renato Moicano and Drew Dober look to defend their places in the top 15 of the rankings.

We’ve got all the news and information ahead of the fight in our Moicano vs Dober prediction, right here.

UFC Fight Night 235: Moicano vs Dober Prediction 

Between the two men involved in the co-main event in Vegas, they have won 12 times since they last had their hands raised thanks to what the scorecards said. That’s not to say they’re similar in the way they end fights.

Whilst Moicano is more likely to get a victory by way of submission, Dober is a knockout specialist inside the Octagon. How much will this have an impact on our Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober prediction? 

Either way, it already feels like this one is unlikely to go the distance, and we’ll explain why.

Renato Moicano Preview

It would be fair to say that Moicano’s best route to victory is by getting his opponent to the canvas and finding a way to make him tap. In his most recent three wins, that’s been by rear-naked choke for Moicano.

The Brazilian has 17 wins in his MMA career to date and 10 of those have been by making his opponent submit, with the other seven going to the judges’ scorecards. 

He goes into this one favorite and once again the bookmakers will likely be backing him to finish the job by submission. But will we agree in our Moicano vs Dober prediction? 

With zero wins by way of TKO/KO you’d think that the 34-year-old wouldn’t be such a big striker. However, in the media day in the build-up to UFC Fight Night 235, Moicano claimed he was a better striker than Dober and a more well-rounded fighter.

Perhaps the biggest problem for the number 13 ranked lightweight in UFC will be his lack of activity for the past 15 months, last being in action Brad Riddell in November 2022.

He has five losses on his MMA record, with three of them by stoppage and one each via submission and the judges’ decision. His most recent loss was to Rafael dos Anjos, who got the nod on the scorecards in March 2022. 

Drew Dober Preview

There maybe few fighters who deserve the moniker in UFC of ‘knockout artist’ as much as Dober, and he’ll be looking to continue that streak on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Our Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober prediction has to take into account the fact that the 15th ranked lightweight has finished 20 of his 27 MMA victories inside the distance, with 14 of them coming by knockout. 

The 35-year-old’s punches only seem to be getting more effective with age as well. His most recent seven wins have come by stoppage using his hands to strike, stretching back to his defeat of Jon Tuck by decision in August 2018.

He does have four losses in that time, two by submission and one each by TKO and decision, with seven wins coming in that stretch too.

Whilst it’s hardly a regular occurrence, Dober has lost four fights via way of submission in total, with defeats to Efrain Escudero and Olivier Aubin-Mercier by versions of a chokehold, the latter by rear-naked choke.

That certainly suggests that he may have a weakness to his opponents’ biggest strength but both those losses were some time ago, so it may not matter. 

Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober Prediction: It Won’t Go The Distance 

It’s pretty obvious that neither of these two wants to go the full 15 minutes of this one, not because they can’t but just simply because it doesn’t usually happen.

What makes the Moicano vs Dober prediction even more interesting is the fact that both men’s slight weakness, according to their records, seems to play into their opponent’s strength. That really adds an extra layer to the prediction. 

Whilst Moicano comes in on the Moneyline at -185, making him the favorite, we fancy Dober to get the victory at +154, in part due to Moicano’s inactivity, down to a knee injury.

The fact that Dober is +900 to get that win by decision tells you everything you need to know, although submission is even less fancied for the American. However, we’ll stick to what’s most obvious and back Dober to win by TKO/KO at +225.

Moicano has twice been stopped in the first round by punches but it’s the loss to Jose Aldo that we think is more likely to be repeated, when he lost in the second period of five minutes. Drew Dober to win by TKO/KO in Round 2 at +750.