Boxing Betting: How You Should Play The Mayweather Fight

SATURDAY UPDATE!

Many folks are wondering, what are the rules for the Floyd Mayweather v Logan Paul exhibition.

Well, here is what we know right now. Showtime’s website has this bout listed as “an eight round special exhibition.”  

As for the weights, Logan Paul is a big man and weighed in a little north of 199 pounds for his lone professional fight. Reports are that he is contracted to weigh in at no more than 190 pounds. As for Mayweather reports are his weight limit is 160 pounds.

Now this is where things get tricky. The are no judges at this moment. Maybe something will change (like we saw for Tyson-Jones) but the fight will not be officially scored. However it can end in knockout. 

Finally, there will be no headgear and it appears they will use eight ounce gloves (though this has already changed a few times this week).

Many books did refund advanced wagers when the no judging was announced and pulled the fight. Others are still taking bets but this is very fluid. We could have more changes  and will update accordingly.

What is Your Prediction?

If you are betting this fight please tread carefully. This is an exhibition and a fight geared more to the entertainment industry. Personally I won’t have a cent wagered on this bout.

I am writing this with a lot of guessing at this moment. Right now only a few books are offering bets on who wins (that’s it). But we could see changes coming still, so I will write something in case we do hear of a judging panel (and of course that would mean more types of wagers would theoretically be available). 

I know there is a lot of interest in this fight out there and as such those who buy it may have want to have some side action. I get it but please again tread carefully.

Let’s take a trip down narrative street for a second. What if I am right and Mayweather carries Paul? This fight goes the distance and we assume there is some kind of scoring decision. Remember what happened in Tyson-Jones? Yup, I think we could see a draw. 

Keep in mind also what a draw would mean? Of course a rematch and maybe one that counts. Please don’t shoot the messenger. If a draw happens could we not see the salesman in Mayweather come out and want to avenge that sort of blemish on his record (though it wouldn’t be official)? Oh, that would sell for sure.

I do think this “fight” goes rounds. Maybe Mayweather turns it on late like he did against McGregor and gets a late stoppage. So I could see some logic to playing the over (not listed yet) and Mayweather by KO/TKO/DQ if a line is posted (will update).

Gun to my head I would play the draw line, over rounds and Mayweather inside the distance. Again most of these lines are not offered at the moment but come become available pending further news.

For the record if no further announcements are made I will advise staying away from betting. Don’t fall for the trap of betting on Paul, I just don’t see him having any realistic chance of winning this “fight.”

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Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Logan Paul, 06/06/2021

Floyd Mayweather Jr. (50-0, 27 KO’s) will take on Jake Paul (0-1) in a scheduled eight round special exhibition on Sunday June 6th from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL.

The bout will be shown on Showtime PPV in the United States.

As of this writing Mayweather is listed as a sizable -1200 favorite whereas Paul can be had for the underdog price tag of +775.

Quick Analysis

Well I must admit that I never thought I’d be doing a boxing betting analysis on an exhibition fight. But here we are and I am sure given the current landscape of the sport that these types of exhibitions will continue at least in the near future.

This is an entirely different type of fight to breakdown from a betting perspective. As such I will do this analysis from a question and answer type of format.

What Are The Rules?

Well here is what we know right now.

Showtime’s website has this bout listed as “an eight round special exhibition.”

As for the weights Logan Paul is a big man and weighed in a little north of 199 pounds for his lone professional fight. Reports are that he is contracted to weigh in at no more than 190 pounds.

As for Mayweather reports are his weight limit is 160 pounds. That’s what we know so far. Hopefully we get more clarity as the week progresses (i.e. how will the bout be scored, size of the gloves, etc).

As information trickles out I will update this section.

Wait So You Are Saying Logan Paul Could Have a 30 Pound Weight Advantage. Will This Give Him An Edge?

Before I answer this let’s keep one thing in mind and that is while it is arguable whether Mayweather is the true TBE in the ring he is undoubtedly the best businessman in the history of this sport.

If Mayweather were so concerned about the weight he wouldn’t have signed up for this fight. Paul’s weight advantage can’t entirely be dismissed but it doesn’t move the needle for me much when analyzing this fight.

Can Logan Paul Fight?

Okay so let’s get into it. Paul has one professional fight and that took place in November of 2019 against KSI (Olajide William Olatunji). Like Paul, KSI was also making his professional debut and quite honestly they were pretty evenly matched.

Rewatching that fight (yes I did and yes it was painful) the best I can say about Paul is that he appeared to be trying to execute some things in the ring. He tried to throw a left jab. He tried to set up something behind that jab. Paul even tried to hold his hands up in spots. But the execution was, well, not crisp (and I am being kind).

The jab was very slow and often missed the target. Paul was often very wild his punches. He appeared to be very rigid standing straight up with no head movement. Often times he pulled straight back with his hands down. And speaking of his hands being down they were often at his hips for much of the fight.

He paid only intermittently for these mistakes against KSI but against a seasoned boxer these mistakes would certainly be exploited. If that version of Paul shows up against Mayweather it won’t be good unless…

You Said Mayweather is a Great Businessman. Won’t Knocking Paul Out Quick Hurt His Brand If Fans Are Unhappy With What They Paid For? 

I have never analyzed a fight from this angle before but this has to be mentioned. Will Mayweather carry Paul so fans come away feeling at least somewhat satisfied with what they paid for? Let me go back to Mayweather’s last fight in August of 2017 against Conor McGregor.

Many thought that if Mayweather wanted to he could dispose of McGregor early. Here are the total punches thrown by Mayweather in the first five rounds. 6, 10, 12, 31, 26. After the fifth round Mayweather picked up the pace and of course got McGregor out of there in the 10th round. Mayweather said after the fight that he believed McGregor would tire in the second half of the fight. This would be the official reason for Mayweather’s low volume early in the fight. But what if Mayweather were concerned that if he landed something early that McGregor would crumble. And thus cause fans that plunked over a hefty PPV price for this fight to be extremely upset.

Yes, I am suggesting that Mayweather carried McGregor and there is no doubt in my mind that is what happened. Watch the first five rounds of that fight yourself and see if you see what I did.

There is a whole new market in these exhibitions. Mayweather sees dollar signs. If Paul is blasted out early this will hurt the appeal of such fights for Mayweather down the road. But if Paul goes a few rounds, puts on a show and then what happens happens, well, then this could open the door for even bigger “exhibitions” down the road.

Remember Mayweather is the best businessman ever in this sport.

You Seem To Totally Dismissing Paul. Couldn’t He Have Gotten Better In The Gym In The Year And A Half Since His Last Fight?

I have seen some talk that Paul should be much better this time around. He has a fight under his belt and more time to learn in the gym. But seriously does anyone really think Paul has been training for a year and a half honing his skills in the gym? He is a YouTube star. That is where he made his money. That is what got him this fight with Mayweather.

Maybe Paul improved on a couple things but watch that fight with KSI. There is a lot of work that needs to be done with Paul and if he hoped to get just a little better would have needed to spend some serious time in the gym. I am sorry but I just don’t see that as having happened or Paul looking one bit different that he did against KSI in 2019.

What is Your Prediction?

First, if you are betting this fight please tread carefully.

This is an exhibition and a fight geared more to the entertainment industry. Personally, I won’t have a cent wagered on this bout. But I do know there is a lot of interest in this fight out there and as such those who buy it may have want to have some side action. I get it but please again tread carefully.

Let’s take a trip down narrative street for a second.

What if I am right and Mayweather carries Paul?

This fight goes the distance and we assume there is some kind of scoring decision. Remember what happened in Tyson-Jones? Yup, I think we could see a draw.

Right now I see one sportsbook posted odds on this at +1000 so that would be a good start. Keep in mind also what a draw would mean? Of course a rematch and maybe one that counts.

Please don’t shoot the messenger.

If a draw happens could we not see the salesman in Mayweather come out and want to avenge that sort of blemish on his record (though it wouldn’t be official)? Oh, that would sell for sure. I do think this “fight” goes rounds. Maybe Mayweather turns it on late like he did against McGregor and gets a late stoppage. So I could see some logic to playing the over (not listed yet) and Mayweather by KO/TKO/DQ if a line is posted (will update).

Gun to my head I would play the draw line, over rounds and Mayweather inside the distance.

Other Fights

Jarrett Hurd (-1429) vs. Luis Aria (+700) – This fight will get some attention as it is one of the main undercard bouts on the Mayweather-Paul card. Arias was once a fairly highly touted prospect but is 0-2-1 in his last three fights.

Inactivity has really hurt his career and he looked bad in his last outing against Luke Keeler in August of 2019.

Arias was dropped twice in that fight against the light hitting Keeler on route to losing a unanimous decision.

Though Arias has yet to be stopped I think it happens here.

I wouldn’t touch the money line on Hurd but do like the under 8 ½ rounds at -120.

Daniel Dubois (-2500) vs. Bogdan Dinu (+900) – This heavyweight fight takes place on Saturday. Dubois is coming off the stoppage loss from a badly swollen left eye in his last fight Joe Joyce. How will he respond coming off such a physically tolling fight where he had to bow out due to an eye injury?

Nobody knows and as such I wouldn’t touch the -2500. I could see Dubois coming out looking to make a statement but I sense there could be some tentativeness coming off that Joyce loss.

I know Dinu has been stopped twice and could very well get stopped here but if Dubois is as tentative as I think he could be the play would be over 3 ½ rounds at -137. And if you are feeling frisky maybe a little on Dubois by decision at +450.