UFC 305 is just around the corner with one of the highlight fights of the year as the main event. Dricus Du Plessis will defend his Middleweight title for the first time against the man who dominated the division for years. And the best part? There is an incredible card ahead of this fight. Here are our early UFC 305 predictions.
UFC 305 Predictions: Co-Main and Main Events
Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prediction
A considerable percentage of the MMA community was against the making of this fight. Many people believe that Adesanya does not deserve a direct title shot. Originally, he made claims that he was going to take a rest from fighting and return around 2027.
Instead, it's been less than a year and he is back to fight for his old belt. As a former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion, he made 8 title defenses in total, second only to Anderson Silva on the all-time list. He decided to take a break after losing it to Sean Strickland in September 2023.
On the other end, Dricus Du Plessis won the belt from Strickland in January after a controversial split decision. It is fair to say that the majority of the fans believed that Strickland won that fight. Now, Du Plessis has to prove that he deserves this championship against one of the toughest men to ever fight in this weight class.
We suspect that after the fierce promotion of this fight with the claims that he is “the real African here”, Adesanya will finally go back to his former aggressive nerve and give us a more entertaining fight. This opportunity is likely to be his last if he loses.
The main factor for our Du Plessis vs Adesanya predictions is the technical advantage that the former champion has over Dricus. He should be able to outpace him in the stand-up but also stop most attempts for a takedown due to his solid defense (78%).
However, given Du Plessis' durability and cardio, we expect a long fight. The best options here are over 3.5 rounds and the Adesanya moneyline.
Kara-France vs Erceg Prediction
In a co-main event that could steal the show, we will see two of the top flyweight contenders after they both suffered controversial losses.
The technical striker with the memorable nickname “Don't Blink” is on a two-fight losing streak. He failed in his title shot against Moreno in 2022 and then he lost to Amir Albazi. The second defeat is hard to explain because, after five rounds, Kara-France had almost double the significant strikes landed.
Amir could have been given a couple of rounds for his ground control, but the whole fight? Well, there were always questions about the refereeing.
On the other end, we have Steve Erceg, who surprised the world earlier this year when he faced Alexandre Pantoja for the Flyweight title and put up a great fight.
Everything was decided in the fifth round, where the champion used his experience and grappling skills. It was wrestling that saved Pantoja when he simply could not continue to withstand hits in the standing position.
Steve has a huge size advantage over the entire roster. Against Pantoja, he looked simply indestructible. If it weren't for the champion's unique grappling skills, he would hardly have lived to see the decision.
Kai is a more technical guy. He represents the City Kickboxing gym, where he trains with Adesanya, Volkanovski and Hooker. This gym is primarily about stand-up work. As soon as the New Zealander finds himself on the ground, all he can do is survive.
Kara-France usually loses his big fights. Among his noteworthy victories, we can note the successes over Cody Garbrandt and Askar Askarov. Erceg simply has more tools to get the victory and we pick him for our UFC 305 predictions.
UFC 305 Main Card Predictions: Two Other Fights That Stand Out
Gamrot vs Hooker Prediction
Hooker, like his teammates Adesanya and Kai, is returning after a year-long layoff. And this will be a tough matchup after a break. The 34-year-old Australian has already amassed 12 defeats in his record but this doesn't take away from the fact that his fights are always spectacular.
You never know with Dan Hooker – he always moves forward, hits, gets hit, and the one who is stronger wins. His fights with Dustin Poirier and Jalin Turner remain among our all-time favorites. But this one will probably not end up on this list due to his opponents' style.
Mateusz will definitely not fight in the stand-up with his opponent. His style is exactly what most fans call boring but there is no denying that it brings results. He has already defeated some of the best in the division, including Arman Tsarukyan, Jalin Turner, and Rafael Fiziev.
One more win against a proper fighter like Hooker and we should see him fight for the belt. And we have to side with him for our UFC 305 predictions. We expect three uneventful rounds of ground control from Gamrot and an easy unanimous decision. Mateusz can only lose to himself in this fight and that is if he decides to take risks and fight standing.
Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Prediction
A one-dimensional fighter blessed with otherworldly power. This is the only way to describe Tai Tuivasa. A great character and a fan favorite, he returns to action after four consecutive losses in the last couple of years.
If we go back to the 2020-2022 period, he was taking the heads of everyone he faced, including Derrick Lewis. He has 13 knockouts in 14 career wins but also 7 defeats. He lost to all the best in the division – Gane, Pavlovich, Volkov, and Tybura.
If we put his knockout power aside, Tuivasa's obvious weakness is his defense. According to statistics, the fighter absorbs an average of 5.05 punches per minute – huge numbers for a heavyweight. Moreover, he is practically helpless in wrestling and he has hardly done anything to change that.
On the other end, we have a fighter with similar stats. Jairzinho Rozenstruik also has 13 knockouts in 14 wins and is going through a bad period. He lost three of his last five fights but also defeated Chris Daukaus and Shamil Gaziev.
The Surinamese fighter's punches are precise and technical, and thanks to his natural strength, he easily knocks down his opponents with short hooks. Rozenstruik is not afraid to enter exchanges, which makes the outcome of this fight even more uncertain.
His weaknesses are the same as Tuivasa's and they both love an early finish. To complete our early UFC 305 predictions, we have to pick under 1.5 rounds as our final bet. Under 2.5 would be the safer option here but the odds are not available yet and we expect them to be quite low. If you are ready for some risk, pick under 1.5.
To conclude this piece, these are just the top four fights on this card. The undercard is stacked with the best local talents and several hot prospects from around the world. This is an event you don't want to miss as the majority of the matchups suggest early stoppages. And of course, you can expect more Du Plessis vs Adesanya predictions on NYFights during the week.
Vlad is a former amateur MMA fighter. After a series of injuries, he found a different way to connect with the sport and its fanbase - through writing. He's been covering everything-UFC for over 5 years on various platforms and has been part of the team at NYFights since early 2022.
