Almeida vs Romanov Prediction: Who’s the Better Wrestler?

Jailton Almeida has to prove his worth again after losing for the first time at UFC 299. At the same time, losing this high-risk, low-reward fight would be devastating for his career. Here is our Almeida vs Romanov prediction.

Almeida vs Romanov Prediction: Matchmakers Clearly Fancy Almeida

Jailton Almeida Preview

Jailton Almeida is a rising star in the heavyweight division. The Brazilian fighter is now 7th in the rankings and enters this contest with a professional record of 20-3.

Until recently, the Brazilian was unbeaten in the promotion and was on a streak of six wins in a row. However, in the last fight, he was unable to break Curtis Blaydes, losing to him by technical knockout in the second round. This defeat was a huge setback for his ambitions to reach a title fight.

Jailton's wrestling is elite. Few heavyweights can do what he does on the ground. However, he is a bit too one-dimensional for this level of fighting. His hitting looks mediocre and his chin is not that good at absorbing punches either.

There is no doubt that he has potential and has already beaten incredible fighters like Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Derrick Lewis. But he needs to improve his striking if he wants to succeed in this weight class. Moreover, Almeida is relatively small – he is about 30 pounds lighter than the majority of the fighters at heavyweight.

On paper, he has the advantage ahead of this fight and we have multiple reasons to side with him for our Almeida vs Romanov prediction. However, we have to look at his opponent before we can make a final decision.

Alexandr Romanov Preview

Romanov is a 33-year-old Moldavian who is also making his way up in the rankings of the heavyweight division and currently sits in 13th place.

Alexandr had an impressive career start in the promotion, winning five times in a row. But as soon as the level of his opposition grew, it became apparent that he had more to grow before he could beat the best. He beat mediocre opponents like Chase Sherman and veterans like Blagoy Ivanov but failed completely against Volkov and Tybura.

Stylistically, Romanov is similar to Almeida, he is also a distinguished wrestler. His record is 17-2 and 9 of those wins came via submission.

Romanov is at a disadvantage here for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he last fought in July 2023. He has been away from the Octagon for a year. Then he also accepted this fight on short notice after the UFC decided to scrap the original bout between Almeida and Volkov.

Our Jailton Almeida vs Alexandr Romanov Prediction: Almeida Can't Lose This Fight

Bookmakers favor the Brazilian ahead of this fight and we can generally agree on our Almeida vs Romanov prediction. Matchmakers chose a convenient opponent for Almeida and it does feel like they are giving him an easy opportunity to rehabilitate himself after his defeat to Blaydes.

As mediocre as Almeida is in the standing position, he is much better than Romanov. At the same time, Almeida is more skilled on the ground, regardless of his size disadvantage. In this fight, it will all come down to who transfers his opponent to the canvas first.

We believe that Almeida should be able to win it, no matter if it is a submission or a decision. And since the moneyline odds are practically pointless, we have to opt for the high-risk submission market.