After a chaotic finish to UFC 327 in Miami, the promotion now heads to New Jersey for another blockbuster as Khamzat Chimaev defends his middleweight crown against Sean Strickland in the main event of UFC 328 at the Prudential Center in Newark. In the co-main event, Joshua Van makes his first flyweight title defense against rising contender Tatsuro Taira.
With fight week approaching, early odds and predictions, especially across Irish betting sites, are already beginning to shape the narrative around this high-profile card. For those catching up, Chimaev extended his perfect record to 15-0 with a dominant win over Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319 to capture the 185-pound title. Meanwhile, Strickland secured his shot by halting the eight-fight surge of Anthony Hernandez at UFC Houston.
Ranked No. 3, he got the nod ahead of No. 2 contender Nassourdine Imavov, whom he defeated back in 2023. A former champion himself, Strickland famously dethroned Israel Adesanya before losing the belt to Du Plessis at UFC 297 and coming up short again in their February 2025 rematch. Now, with the heated rivals set to collide on May 10, anticipation is already building for what promises to be a high-stakes showdown.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: UFC 328 Main Event Analysis
The bad blood between Chimaev and Strickland has been brewing since their intense sparring sessions at Xtreme Couture. Moving onto the prediction wagon, the Chechen answered lingering doubts about his cardio in emphatic fashion during his title win over Dricus Du Plessis.
Across five rounds in Chicago last year, he delivered a suffocating performance, landing 12 takedowns, controlling over 21 minutes of fight time, and setting a new UFC record with 529 total strikes. It was a dominant display that redefined the ceiling of his grappling pressure.
Against Strickland, however, the challenge shifts. While Chimaev still holds a clear wrestling advantage, Strickland’s striking presents a different puzzle. Known for his disciplined Philly shell boxing, stiff jab, and relentless pace, Strickland thrives at range, using footwork and volume to control fights.
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He’s one of the cleanest pure boxers at middleweight, and his jab is likely to find success early as Chimaev looks to close the distance. But the fight hinges on what happens when Chimaev commits to the takedown. His chain wrestling is relentless, and once he secures a body lock or underhook, he rarely lets opponents escape cleanly. Moreover, the Chechen himself holds a 100% takedown defense.
Meanwhile, Strickland’s 72% takedown defense is respectable, but it may not hold up against the sheer force and persistence Chimaev brings, as seen in his dismantling of Du Plessis. There are vulnerabilities, though. Chimaev can be hittable when entering range, something Gilbert Burns exposed at UFC 273. His striking, while powerful, can be reckless as he often abandons fundamentals, drops his hands, and engages in chaotic exchanges.
Strickland’s composed, straight-punch style is tailor-made to capitalize on those openings if the fight stays standing. Apart from this, he lands nearly six significant strikes per minute, one of the highest rates in the 185lbs division. Still, the American isn’t known for one-shot knockout power. He typically outpoints opponents rather than finishing them, meaning even successful striking exchanges may not deter Chimaev from shooting.
The real question becomes whether Strickland can consistently defend takedowns and, more importantly, get back to his feet. Historically, Strickland has shown strong defensive grappling, fighting hands, breaking grips, and working back up without exposing his back. Moreover, he has never been submitted in his MMA career. If he can force scrambles and survive the early rounds, he has a path to drag Chimaev into deeper waters where his elite cardio becomes a factor.
Ultimately, this matchup boils down to control versus consistency. If Chimaev can impose his wrestling early in each round and rack up control time, he likely secures a decision. But if Strickland’s takedown defense holds and he’s able to dictate the pace with his jab, he could turn the tide late, either through accumulation or a late stoppage.
Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev via close decision.
Kshitiz Kumar Singh is a UFC Writer at NY Fights with over three years of experience in sports journalism and content creation. Known for his sharp storytelling and passion for combat sports, he has written in-depth features on stars like Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, and Ilia Topuria. Before joining NY Fights, Kshitiz worked as a UFC Editor at EssentiallySports while currently serving as a WWE Editor at FirstSportz. His admiration for legends like Georges St-Pierre continues to inspire his detailed and engaging MMA coverage. Whether he’s covering the Octagon or the squared circle, Kshitiz is committed to delivering accurate, high-quality content. Outside the world of sports, he’s a dedicated cinephile, often found practicing monologues from his favorite Al Pacino films, combining his love for cinema with storytelling.