Experts: Beterbiev vs Bivol Predictions

Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev are just hours away from their long-awaited showdown on Saturday for the unified, undisputed light heavyweight championship in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

There is nowhere left to hide for the boxing community. Beterbiev vs Bivol predictions are a tough call in a true 50-50 fight with razor-thin odds. But the call must be made. Where do the analysts, the observers, or fighters themselves stand?

NOTE: The only place to see the main event in the U.S. is through a special one-fight presentation streaming live and exclusively on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT.

UPDATE: As of this morning, the undercard is now a PPV for $19.99, a last-minute switch. It airs exclusively on DAZN Boxing. Earlier reports were accurate. DAZN is taking enormous heat on this. Only you can decide whether the fee is worth it. I will be watching and posting updates on X/Twitter.

Team Beterbiev

Artur Beterbiev celebrates defeating Anthony Yarde and defending his WBC, IBF, and WBO light-heavyweight titles at the OVO Arena Wembley, London. Photo by Icon Sport

Artur Beterbiev of Montreal, Quebec (20-0, 20 KOs) is currently boxing’s only world champion with a 100 percent knockout rate. He won the first of his three titles in 2017 and has made eight title defenses. He is a native Russian of Chechen descent, now a Canadian citizen fighting out of Montreal. He weighed in at 174.9 pounds. He is 39 years old.

Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson knows something about power punching. He says he’s a big fan and believes Beterbiev will win by knockout.

Another former heavyweight champion is picking Beterbiev. Anthony Joshua thinks Bivol will get out to an early lead, but sees Beterbiev turning the screws in the second half of the fight.

“Bivol will be tiring in the championship rounds, and Beterviev will get a late stoppage. Beterbiev TKO10. As long as Beterbiev has got something left in the tank and didn’t grow old overnight. If he’s not showing age, I believe Beterbiev will get him.”

Artur Beterbiev stopped Callum Smith, but it was the jab that did the major damage. Photo: Mikey Williams, Top Rank Boxing

Fighter turned trainer Andy Lee: “I’m leaning toward Artur because the education behind the power is too great. Maybe a late stoppage.”

Floyd Mayweather Jr. sees it as a 50-50 fight like most. He acknowledged Beterbiev’s age, and over time as the fight was delayed, says he wavered in his pick, but “I will hesitantly stick with my original instinct.” Why? “Because Beterbiev is a master of manipulation in the ring. Part of a boxer’s mandate is to get the judges to watch him instead of his opponent, and few do that better than Beterbiev. This is where Beterbiev’s strength lies: the ability to command attention, even when the fight is close.”

British light heavyweight Lyndon Arthur fought Dmitry Bivol in December, losing by decision. He picks Beterbiev to beat his former opponent due to the boxing skills he developed as an amateur. “He’s very good at boxing. Because he knocks everyone out, everyone thinks he’s a come-forward fighter, but he was on the Russian team for a long time in the amateurs. He had a long amateur career. He’s seen a lot of styles.”

Team Bivol

Dmitry Bivol of Indio, California (23-0, 12 KOs) has made 12 defenses of his WBA belt after winning it from Trent Broadhurst in 2017, including a convincing decision over Canelo Alvarez in May 2022. Bivol, born in Krygistan of mixed Moldovan and Korean heritage, now based in Indio, California, weighed in at 174.12 pounds. He is 33 years old.

In our informal survey, more experts are picking Bivol to win.

It’s no surprise Ukrainian pound-for-pound greats Vasiliy Lomachenko and Oleksandr Usyk both see Bivol winning.

Dmitry Bivol dominated Canelo Alvarez, although the scorecards were close. Photo: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom

Lomachenko acknowledges that Beterbiev is dangerous, calling him “a wrecking machine.” But he sees the edge coming from Bivol’s previous win over Canelo Alvarez. He calls the victory over one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world a major confidence boost for Bivol. Beterbiev by majority decision.

Usyk says Bivol’s boxing ability will prevail in a unanimous decision due to his movement and technical skills. Usyk also praised Bivol’s performance against Canelo, including his counterpunching, defensive skills, and combination punching. “He will use the same attributes against Beterbiev, neutralizing his power.” Usyk faced Beterbiev in amateur competition. Beterbiev knocked him down, but ultimately, Usyk won on points.

Terence Crawford calls the fight “power against brains,” saying it will be incredibly close. “Both fighters will demonstrate their strengths. Bivol will ultimately win by a close unanimous decision,” said Crawford.

Crawford’s foe Errol Spence Jr. agrees Bivol will win by unanimous decision “in a great fight.” Spence Jr. told Fight Hub, “Bivol has the right style and temperament to beat Beterbiev.”

You might expect former world heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder to pick Beterbiev, but he’s going with Bivol, based on his victory over Canelo Alvarez as a sign of things to come. “Bivol is the kind of guy who rises to the level of his opposition, and it has served him well.” Wilder sees a decision win for Bivol.

Add British heavyweight Derek Chisora to the chorus of big men for Bivol. “He can’t manage the power, he will box and move away. Win by split decision.” Davis Benavidez Jr. and Oscar De La Hoya are also going with Bivol.

Dmitriy Bivol promises he is focused and ready. Photo: Leigh Dawney, Queensberry Promotions

Hall of Fame champion Tim Bradley Jr. calls it for Bivol in his commentating role with ESPN.

“My original pick, before Beterbiev needed surgery, was a Bivol win. He has better footwork, defense, an incredible jab, and sharp counters.

“If he can keep the fight in the center of the ring, without being too stationary for Beterbiev’s midrange to inside attacks, he should win. However, it’s easier said than done. But I will go with Bivol,” said Bradley Jr.

Cruiserweight champion Jai Opetaia of Australia is on the undercard. He’s seen both up close. “I keep going back and forth, I’m always leaning towards Bivol,” Opetaia told The Stomping Ground.

“Beterbiev is a great fighter, I’m just leaning towards Bivol because I respect the footwork. I’m more of a boxing style than a walk-forward boxer. The person who is going to win is the one who is going to make minimum mistakes.”

Two world-class trainers are going with Bivol. Calvin Ford, trainer of Gervonta Davis, says  “Oh that’s going to be a good one, I can’t wait. We’re going with Bivol because he’s sound, he’s solid. I think he can pull it off, but it’s going to be an exciting fight.”

Lyndon Arthur gave a good effort but was no match for Dmitry Bivol. Photo: Mark Robinson, Matchroom Boxing.

Teddy Atlas believes Bivol gets the stoppage. Atlas discussed the fight on his podcast. The Fight With Teddy Atlas.

About Beterbiev, Atlas said, “He’s slowing down. He’s cutting up easier. He’s 39 years old with 300 amateur fights. A lot of tough fights in the pros. He’s aging. Nobody beats Father Time.

“I never will rule out Beterbiev. He’s got power, he’s got character and pride, but, yeah, I got Bivol a solid favorite. I think there’s a good chance he stops him late in the fight, either by cuts or by just an endless barrage of punches.”

Former light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. is among the few who’s faced both men in the ring, losing to Bivol by decision and Beterbiev by knockout. Speaking with Lee Groves on the “In This Corner” podcast, Smith Jr. is going with Bivol.

“Bivol is very loose, he’s got great footwork, he’s in and out, very good timing. He’s an all-around good boxer, very slick guy. He’s always thinking a few moves ahead.

“I got pretty frustrated at times. He knows how to use your body against you. Every time I came in, if I was bent down a little bit or anything, he put his body weight on me he got my legs tired. He did little tricks throughout the fight that made an impact on it.”

The Draw Whisperer

Jolene Mizzone was the only person who predicted the first fight between Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury would end in a draw. Photo: Esther Lin, Showtime Boxing

Jolene Mizzone, President and Matchmaker, Fighters First Management, has an uncanny knack for pinpointing big-stakes fights ending in a draw. She was the only person who picked the Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano draw and correctly called the Fury vs Wilder 1 draw. While she originally called the fight for Bivol for RING Magazine, when NY Fights asked her for her thoughts, she’d changed her mind.

“The first few rounds Bivol is going to box Beterbiev. Within the first four rounds, Beterbiev will knock Bivol down. Bivol will get up and box him beautifully the next four rounds.

“Beterbiev may have Bivol down again in the fight, but Bivol will come back and box him, this in my opinion could result in a draw!” declared Mizzone. It’s hard to go against her track record.

Beterbiev vs Bivol Predictions: Dmitry Bivol by Decision

Dmitry Bivol will leave Riyadh with all four light heavyweight belts. Photo: Mark Robinson, Matchroom Boxing

Full disclaimer: at one time, I worked with promoter Main Events and had the opportunity to work with Dmitry Bivol. Watching him train and work the ring, his skills are undeniable. Fans love enormous power and thrilling knockouts. But Bivol understands there’s no reason to put yourself at risk or work harder than necessary to win a fight. He has the stamina to go 12 rounds with ease. Yes, he can deliver a knockout punch, but only when necessary.

Bivol has the highest jab connect rate in all of boxing. He throws an average of just over 35 jabs per round, connecting on just under nine per round. The result: his opponents have landed just 13% of their total power punches against him through 23 professional bouts. It’s the lower percentage in boxing. This results in efficiency inside the ring. It’s also why Bivol is still fresh at age 33.

To hit and hurt Bivol, you’ve got to find him. His defensive skills come primarily from his fleet footwork and ability to step in, land punches, and step out of range.

There is no denying Beterbiev’s crushing strength and power. But he may be forced to do more boxing than usual. How will his recently repaired knee hold out just five months after surgery? Will he be able to avoid cuts and accumulated damage from Bivol’s snapping jab – the same one that marked up Canelo Alvarez’s face? Due to his relative inactivity, how will his stamina hold up?

The intangible element is Bivol’s superb victory over Canelo Alvarez. Confidence is everything when the stakes are as high as in this fight.

Bivol has never appeared more focused. After the weigh-in, DAZN broadcaster Todd Grisham remarked to Bivol that he looked “chill.” Bivol replied, “I’m always chill.” He said he would eat well, sleep well, and be ready on Saturday. He and long-time trainer Gennadiy Mashianov have attended to every detail.

It’s not a difficult choice. Dmitry Bivol will win by decision and become the first unified light heavyweight champion in the four-belt era.