Betting Picks Week of 03/20
In an effort to be fully transparent I want to start off with a recap of the results from my previous article.
Juan Francisco Estrada to Win – $25 (would win $15)
Jessica McCaskill to Win – $10 (would win $13.80)
Jamontay Clark to Win – $10 (estimated win $8.70)
Benavidez-Ellis over (or to go the distance) – $5 if wager is available
Estrada of course got the win by split decision so that ticket cashed though we certainly had to sweat out that decision (and of course many were in disagreement of that decision).
McCaskill also got the win so that was a nice small underdog hit.
In regards to Benavidez-Ellis the over/under of 7.5 rounds at -110 was not posted until later in the week.
I had to debate whether to take that over or fight goes the distance at +300. Being conservative by nature I stuck with the over 7.5 rounds and that was a small ticket that cashed.
Finally we had one loss for the week when Terrell Gausha iced Jamontay Clark in the second round of their 154 pound crossroads fight.
There was a total investment of $50 on the $1000 bankroll. On that we returned $73.55 for a profit of $23.55 notching the bankroll up to $1,023.55 to start this week.
As I wrote last week bankroll management is extremely critical when wagering on sports and I will continue to stick with running out no more than 5% of the total bankroll per week.
As for last week there was nothing that jumped off the page to me. In those instances I find it best to sit on the sidelines and enjoy the action. But in the next two weeks I do see some things I like and think we may be able to make a little money.
In my previous article I wrote that I would pull odds from SugarHouse Casino in Pennsylvania. This is the book I use most frequently. However they are a little late in getting boxing odds posted this week. So instead as a guide I will use William Hill. And will post any updates I see fit on Twitter.
Dillian Whyte vs. Alexander Povetkin II, 03/27/2021
Dillian Whyte (27-2, 18 KO’s) will face off against Alexander Povetkin (36-2-1, 25 KO’s) in a scheduled twelve round heavyweight bout on Saturday, March 27 from Gibraltar. This is a rematch of their bout from last August in which Povetkin (below) got off the deck to knock out Whyte in the fifth round. Like their first fight the rematch will be broadcast on DAZN.
As of this writing, Whyte is a sizable -345 favorite whereas Povetkin can be had for the underdog price tag of +260. The over/under is sitting at 7 ½ rounds with the over coming in at -125 and the under at -110.
Whyte was a decent sized favorite in the first fight and seemed to be in control of the fight when he was caught with a left uppercut that put him out cold. Will it be repeat or revenge? We have seen this script before in heavyweight boxing with a big favorite getting knocked out and then coming back into the immediate rematch. Boxing Betting wants to focus on a couple examples.
Seth Mitchell was shockingly knocked out by Jonathan Banks in November of 2012.
In the rematch seven months later Mitchell carefully out boxed Banks to win a unanimous decision in a dreadful fight. Anthony Joshua was stunningly stopped by Andy Ruiz in their heavyweight title fight in June of 2019. In the rematch that December Joshua cautiously out boxed Ruiz to win an easy unanimous decision to regain his titles.
It wasn’t exactly the most exciting fight either.
See where I am going with this? In the first fight Whyte did have success with the left jab. When he wanted to he controlled Povetkin with this punch. But Whyte found Povetkin easy to hit, as others have, and well opened up more and more. And then got caught. Guess what I think he does in the rematch? Whyte will use that left jab more and look to dictate range from the outside. He can easily out box Povetkin if he wants and that’s what I think he will do.
Whyte to win is the play for me. He will be a parlay piece on my ticket (more on that later). I also like the over 7 ½ rounds and that will also be a play. Finally if you are feeling a little greasy I do like Whyte by decision at +333.
Ted Cheeseman vs. James Metcalf, 03/27/2021
As part of the DAZN televised undercard of Whyte-Povetkin II, Ted Cheeseman (16-2-1, 9 KO’s) will take on James Metcalf (21-0, 13 KO’s) in a scheduled twelve round 154 pound fight.
As of this writing, the odds makers have installed Metcalf as the favorite coming in at -161 whereas Cheeseman can be had for an underdog price of +130.
When I see fights made I instantly start thinking in my mind where odds will be set. With this fight I had a solid idea of who I liked and before looking at odds watched some recent fights of both men. I fortified my conclusion and then looked at the odds. And I was very surprised to see Metcalf installed as the favorite.
A few things to note on this fight. First Cheeseman has fought the considerably better opposition. It’s not even close. Cheeseman has the better hand speed. He also keeps a much higher pace than Metcalf. Overall I would say Cheeseman is the much better athlete. And finally I really like how Cheeseman moves his head, especially in recent fights, and have yet to see a tape where Metcalf has even showed the slightest head movement. Metcalf is much easier to hit.
All signs to me not only point to a Cheeseman win but a potential dominant performance. I am hammering the +130 and if offered may even bet the win by ko/tko prop on Cheeseman.
Chris Kongo vs. Michael McKinson, 03/27/2021
Another intriguing televised fight on the Gibraltar card will be a battle of undefeated rising welterweights between Chris Kongo (12-0, 7 KO’s) and Michael McKinson (19-0, 2 KO’s).
As of this writing Kongo is listed as the -250 favorite whereas McKinson can be had for the underdog price of +190.
Kongo is a former decorated UK amateur who has been moved very slowly since turning pro in 2016. However he is coming off a career best performance last August when he stopped 13-1 Luther Clay and is looking to keep the momentum going against McKinson.
McKinson, for his part, has faced the much better opposition as a pro. He is a slick southpaw who is not only a good counter puncher but can lead and is very adept at using his feet to set up angles to land his combinations. He has good hand speed but as the record indicates not much punching power. That said I wouldn’t call him feather fisted either at least from the video I have seen.
Kongo is very well schooled himself from his amateur pedigree. I do believe McKinson is a pretty sizable step up for him. However I am sure Kongo has seen slick southpaws in his amateur days and can quickly adept to McKinson’s style.
Kongo has quick hands and heavy handed power. He also has good footwork and is very good at placing his shots on his opponents. I think McKinson may have some success here early but Kongo will gradually break him down as the fight progresses. My official pick is Kongo by late stoppage and I think he makes for a great parlay piece with Whyte.
Tim Tszyu vs. Dennis Hogan, 03/31/2021
Tim Tszyu (17-0, 13 KO’s), son of Hall of Famer Kostya Tszyu, will take on veteran Dennis Hogan (28-3-1, 7 KO’s) in a key 154 pound crossroads fight on Wednesday March 31st in Australia.
As of this writing, Tszyu is listed as a -833 favorite whereas Hogan can be had for an underdog price tag of +450.
First of all before getting into the analysis I must admit I have really come around on Tszyu (below). Years ago when he was first coming up I didn’t really think he’d even become a future contender. But I like what I seen recently and think he has potential superstardom in his future.
Hogan is a tough gritty fighter. We saw that in his performances against Jaime Munguia and Jermall Charlo. Heck many thought he beat Munguia. But Hogan is very easy to hit and doesn’t have much behind his own punches. This is a recipe for disaster against Tszyu.
I think Tszyu is going to walk right thru anything Hogan delivers early and land big thudding shots throughout the night. Hogan is very tough and willing but just won’t be able to get Tszyu’s respect to keep him off of him. It’s Tszyu for me but I don’t like the price and it’s even too high to add to any parlays. I don’t see anything on the over/under yet on this fight but would guess we are looking at either 7 ½ or 8 ½ rounds. If I had to make a play it’d be the over on this fight as I think Hogan is durable and tough enough to last some rounds but it would be a very small play at that.
Jamel Herring vs. Carl Frampton, 04/03/2021
Jamel Herring (22-2, 10 KO’s) will defend his WBO 130 pound title against former two division champion Carl Frampton on April 3rd in Dubai. The bout will stream live on ESPN+.
As of this writing Frampton is listed as a small favorite coming in at -137 whereas Herring can be had for +110.
Boxing Betting Quick Analysis
Sometimes when I break down fights I like to look at certain technical aspects of the fight. And there are other times when I throw technical analysis out the window. This is one of those times.
To my eyes, Frampton has been on a steady decline since losing to Leo Santa Cruz in their January 2017 rematch. And that decline seems to be accelerating as of late. On the flip side, Herring has been getting better and better each time out. He is still peaking as a fighter to my eyes and still has room, even at 35, to get better.
Whenever I see such an obvious disparity I jump all over the fighter that is still peaking. The pick is Herring and if you want to juice it up a little take Herring by decision (assuming that gets offered).
Boxing Betting Final Card
Remember bankroll management is key in sports betting. I am not unloading more than 5% of my bankroll on any select events. In my example (and that I am also playing) we started with $1000 and are now up to $1023.55.
Ted Cheeseman to win – $20 (would win $26)
Dillian Whyte to win parlayed with Chris Kongo to Win – $10 (would win $8.06)
Whyte/Povetkin over 7 ½ rounds – $5 (would win $4)
Dillian Whyte to win by decision – $5 (would win $16.65)
Jamel Herring to win – $10 (would win $11)
Good luck to everyone.