Don’t deny it. You’ll be watching Netflix tomorrow to see the Jake vs Joshua fight. Of course you will.
Unless you’re at the best holiday party of your life, you can’t avoid the siren call of this previously unthinkable heavyweight matchup between the brash social media celebrity and boxing promoter Jake Paul, and the Olympic gold medalist and two-time heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua get in the ring for an eight-round professional boxing match at the Kaseya Center in Miami.
The Jake vs Joshua preliminary card begins at 4:45 p.m. ET / 1:45 p.m. PT on Netflix’s Tudum and MVP’s YouTube Channel.
The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, live only on Netflix. Expect the main event ringwalk at approximately 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT.
Joshua weighed in on Thursday at 243.4 pounds, well under the agreed-upon 245-pound limit. There is no rehydration restriction. Paul weighed in at 216.4 pounds. By comparison, Paul weighed 227 pounds for his fight with Mike Tyson in November 2024.
Final Words From The Fighters
Following the weigh-in, the fighters had final words for each other with Joshua vowing to crush the upstart and Paul channeling his pro wrestling rage storm.
“It’s all good. As long as the crowd enjoyed it, that’s the main thing,” said Joshua of the antics at the weigh-in with Paul clowning around.
“There’s mutual respect there because we’re two fighters getting in this ring. But ultimately, I have to be victorious, and that’s what I’m focused on. What it is now, the games are done. It’s time to lock in,” added Joshua. “You know my character, right? I’m not going to give you any antics here. But you know in the ring, you know what I come to do.”
Joshua said he simply outclasses Paul. “I’m just going to outclass him. I’m a serious fighter. That’s just the difference. I’m a serious, serious fighter. You’re going to get fucked up,” said Joshua as Paul approached him. “It is what it is. I just believe I’m going to smash you. I’m going to smoke you away.”
After making fun of Joshua’s “chicken legs,” Paul said he smelled fear on Joshua during the final faceoff. “I seen something in his eyes. I truly do. When I say America, you say fuck yeah! Let’s fucking go!”
Pressure All Falls On Joshua
Paul said he feels no pressure at all about Friday’s fight. “The pressure is on him. I’m fighting free. I’ve already won. This is a lose-lose situation for him. I’ve got him in the corner right where I want him.”
There isn’t a person connected to boxing, whether a current or retired athlete, trainer, or longtime observer, who doesn’t have a strong opinion on what’s about to go down Friday in Miami.
Is Jake vs Joshua Legit?
The size difference and the enormous gap in experience between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua, coupled with the devastating knockout Joshua delivered to another relative ring rookie named Francis Ngannou, draw warnings of dire consequences to Paul from a similar knockout blow. This includes former world heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder. Never one to pass up a good conspiracy theory, Wilder questioned whether this sanctioned fight is legitimate.
Paul insists the fight is on the level. “(Skeptic) Deontay Wilder, he’s been hit a lot by Tyson Fury, so he’s clearly not the smartest guy, but there’s nothing in the contract. AJ can attest to it. We’re going to war and that’s the end of the day that all my fights have been like.”
The performance by Paul against Mike Tyson a year ago caused speculation that if the exhibition wasn’t scripted, that at least Paul took it easy on the boxing icon and carried him through the final bell. Having witnessed the fight first hand, it seemed clear to me Paul let Tyson finish the fight out of respect, easing off the gas pedal in the final rounds.
How Dangerous For Jake Paul?
At the most extreme end, critics believe Paul will be seriously hurt, that anyone involved is guilty of aiding and abetting a homicide, and that the fight shouldn’t have been sanctioned in the first place.
A handful of people advise fans not to shortchange Paul. One of his sparring partners helping him prepare for the fight with Tank Davis before it fell apart, world champion Shakur Stevenson, said in several interviews with multiple outlets that Paul “is better than people would even understand.”
Shakur acknowledges Paul got a late start but is taking the sport seriously. “He’s locking in and doing training camps and got the right team around him, got the coaches around him. He’s better than what you’d think,” said Stevenson.
While Stevenson is still predicting a win for Joshua, he thinks Paul has enough skill to hear the final bell.
What do I think, and what do I think will happen on Friday night in Miami?
Plenty of heavyweights have fought with a significant height and weight difference, especially in the modern era of the super heavyweights like Joshua. No one stopped American Olympian Richard Torrez Jr. at 6-2 from fighting Bakhodir Jalolov at 6-7. Tyson Fury has outweighed his opponents as much as 66 pounds against Macedonian Sefer Seferi in 2018.
It’s not the size, it’s the experience differential. Naysayers don’t believe Paul has the defensive skills to avoid taking a massive right hand from Joshua. Like these.
Paul has been sparring active heavyweights bigger than him including Lawrence Okolie, Frank Sanchez, and Jared Anderson. He admits to hitting the deck, so he has at least somewhat tested his chin.
Sure, Paul insists he can knock Joshua out in the biggest upset in the history of sports (in all sports). Sure, Joshua said if he can kill Paul, he will because it’s his job.
But NO boxer wants to kill an opponent. Listen to one who’s had this happen, and they wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Max Baer, Ray Mancini, Barry McGuigan, Sergey Kovalev, Subriel Matias, Charles Conwell. All of them saw an opponent die after defeating them, and they carry a heavy burden.
In virtually every case, the damage came from an accumulation of punches over many rounds, not a single punch. Many fighters get right back up after a devastating knockout. Think Manny Pacquiao getting drilled by Juan Manuel Marquez. Instead, getting battered round after round is like being tied to the bumper of a truck and dragged down a rock-filled dirt road.
Boxing is dangerous every time. No one discounts this. But there have been plenty of fights between mismatched opponents, and no one expresses their outrage when it’s a rising star being fed an opponent who’s little more than a human heavy bag.
Jake Paul Meets His Critics Head On
Critics have blasted Paul for years for not facing a real boxer. Now he is. Paul has made himself relevant. He’s made himself into a star. I’ve gone from a hater to an admirer. You can’t deny his courage. His advocacy for women’s professional boxing is undeniable and a smart marketing play. He sells out arenas featuring MVP’s top female athletes. And he calls Dana White to account where far too many others are content to kiss the ring.
Whether Paul is ready to go out in a blaze of glory or prove a lot of people wrong, he’s here for the show, as he said at this week’s news conference
“Let’s put on a show for the fans. Let’s go to war. Men have done crazier things throughout human history. This is the modern-day gladiator sport. This is what we’re here to do, is fuck each other up, and I’m ready. I want his hardest punches. I want there to be no excuses when it’s all said and done.”
Our Prediction for Jake vs Joshua
I’m giving the last word to an unexpected name: welterweight champion Rolly Romero. Romero is adamant Paul is going to win. Take it away, Rolly.
“Jake Paul has something called ‘plot armor’ — the main character has to survive, and he’s the main character,” Romero said in an interview after this week’s news conference with Fight Hype. “Jake Paul is a smart guy who is brave. And there is no way Jake Paul would fight someone if he knew he was going to lose.
“Joshua is fighting a cruiserweight. He is not doing anything special for this fight. The last time Anthony Joshua fought in the United States, we know what happened — Andy Ruiz knocked him out cold [in June 2019]. This will be a real fight. If I was Jake Paul’s trainer, the focus should be to punch Anthony Joshua as many times as possible in the face. I have Jake Paul winning by plot armor.”
Oddsmakers show Anthony Joshua holding steady this week as a minus 1200 favorite, Paul a plus-700 underdog. Using an implied probability calculator, Joshua’s chance of a victory has slipped slightly to 85%, against 15% for Paul. But that’s not zero.
Should Paul go the distance even in a shutout win for Joshua, it would be a major moral victory for Paul and a bad look for Joshua as he heads for a long discussed fight with Tyson Fury.
PREDICTION: Paul will outperform his critics. Joshua by decision, with Paul going the distance and avoiding a knockdown in the loss.
Championship Bouts Featured on Undercard
Three women’s championship bouts offer legitimate matchups and skills on the undercard.
Alycia Baumgardner of Detroit (16-1, 7 KOs) vs Leila Beaudoin of Quebec (13-1, 2 KOs) to unify the IBF and WBO World Super Featherweight titles;
Cherneka “Sugar Neeks” Johnson of New Zealand (18-2, 8 KOs) vs Amanda Galle of Ontario, Canada (12-0-1, 1 KO) for Johnson’s undisputed IBF/WBO/WBC/WBA Bantamweight titles;
Caroline Dubois of London (11-0-1, 5 KOs), sister of Daniel Dubois making her debut with MVP against Camilla Panatta of Italy (8-2-1, 1 KOs) fighting out of Florida, for Dubois’ WBC World Lightweight title.
And then there’s former MMA stars Anderson Silva and Tyrone Woodley having a six round scrap for laughs.
Gayle Falkenthal is an award-winning boxing journalist and the only woman journalist who is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA). She is the Managing Editor for NY Fights based in San Diego, California.