UFC 296 Predictions: Full Card, Prelims Betting Picks
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Vladislav Tchakarov
With such a wild card in front of our eyes, it can be hard to pick just three or four selections. Most matches are bet-worthy but we did our best to find the most promising markets. Check out our UFC 296 predictions below.
UFC 296 Predictions: Surprisingly Good Odds For Several Main Card Bouts
Edwards vs Covington Prediction
Leon Edwards is a former BAMMA champion and current UFC Welterweight champion. Rocky won the title in August 2022 against Kamaru Usman of Nigeria. Eight months later, in a rematch, he defeated him again and defended the belt. The Briton has not lost in 12 fights in a row.
The 32-year-old Edwards has 21 wins (7 by knockout, 11 by decision, 3 by submission) and three losses. The Englishman has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Colby Covington is ranked third in the division rankings. Chaos has won two victories in the last three matches. The American defeated his compatriots Tyron Woodley (technical knockout) and Jorge Masvidal (unanimous decision). However, he lost to Kamaru Usman (unanimous) in his two title matches over the last four years.
The 35-year-old Covington has 17 wins (4 by knockout, 9 by decision, 4 by submission) and three losses. The fighter from California was involved in wrestling before mixed martial arts. The American also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is a former world champion in grappling.
Bookmakers consider Edwards the favorite for the upcoming fight and we generally agree with them for our UFC 296 predictions. Yes, Covington has the advantage stylistically as Leon Edwards is not as experienced in wrestling. However, Covington has not appeared in the Octagon for a long time. It will be quite difficult for him to defeat the Englishman, who is in excellent physical shape. Unless Covington finds ways to take Edwards down and control him for long periods, we believe that the Englishman will defend his belt.
Alexandre Pantoja is the current Flyweight champion of the UFC. The Brazilian has not lost in four fights. The last time he was defeated was in the summer of 2020 by Russian Askar Askarov (unanimous decision of the judges). The Cannibal won his championship belt in his last fight in July 2023, when he defeated Mexican Brandon Moreno (split decision).
The 33-year-old Pantoja has 26 wins (8 by knockout, 8 by decision, 10 by submission) and 5 losses.
Brandon Royval is ranked second in the division rankings. The American won his last three fights. Raw Dawg defeated Brazilians Rogerio Bontorin (split) and Matheus Nicolau Pereira (knockout), as well as American Matt Schnell (submission). The fighter is a former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) champion.
The 31-year-old Royval has 15 victories (5 by knockout, 2 by decision, 8 by submission) and six defeats. The American has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Bookmakers consider Pantoja to be the clear favorite for the upcoming fight but this is a difficult pick and we have a different idea for our UFC 296 predictions. Both fighters profess the same fighting styles and are approximately equal in strength. Also, their anthropometric data is almost the same. Royval is a strong fighter and, under certain circumstances, can also achieve victory. Yes, Pantoja already beat Royval once two years ago but both fighters have grown and improved since then.
• Match will not reach the distance
Rakhmonov vs Thompson Prediction
Shavkat Rakhmonov occupies the fifth place in the welterweight rankings. He is a former M-1 champion. The Kazakh fighter, in addition to MMA, was engaged in combat sambo, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, pankration, and boxing. The “Nomad” did not suffer a single defeat at the professional level, and all victories were achieved ahead of schedule.
The 29-year-old Rakhmonov has 17 victories (eight by knockout and nine by submission). In his last fight in March 2023, Shavkat defeated American Geoff Neal (submission).
Stephen Thompson is sixth in the division rankings. Wonderboy has only one win in his last three fights. In July 2021, he lost to Gilbert Burns (unanimous decision), and then to his compatriot Belal Muhammad (unanimous). And in December 2022, he defeated another Kevin Holland (technical knockout).
The 40-year-old Thompson has 17 wins (eight by knockout, eight by decision, one by submission) and six losses. Stephen, in addition to MMA, was involved in kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Bookmakers consider Rakhmonov to be the undisputed favorite and we agree with them for our UFC 296 predictions. Thompson has not entered the octagon for a long time and is clearly not in optimal competitive shape. The fighter from Kazakhstan is 11 years younger and in far better shape.
Alonzo Menifield is ranked 14th in the light-heavyweight rankings. He fought in Bellator and Legacy Fighting Alliance before signing a contract with the UFC in the winter of 2019 but did not achieve serious success. The fighter from California has not lost in four fights. In the latter, in October 2022, he defeated Australian Jimmy Crute (knockout).
The 36-year-old American has 14 victories (ten by knockout, one by decision, three by submission) and three defeats. It is noteworthy that Menifield played American football professionally before joining MMA.
Dustin Jacoby is ranked 15th in the division rankings. The American is a former champion of the Cage Fury Fighting Championships. The fighter from Colorado signed a contract with the UFC in the fall of 2020. He has one win in his last three fights. In August 2023, he defeated Kennedy Nzechukwu (technical knockout).
The 35-year-old Jacoby has 19 wins (12 by knockout, six by decision, one by submission) and seven losses. Dustin also has experience competing in kickboxing tournaments.
Jacoby comes into the upcoming fight as a clear favorite. According to bookmakers, Menfield should have virtually no chance of success. We have to disagree for our UFC 296 predictions. Alonzo is not a timid fighter. And under certain circumstances, he can achieve victory. Between them, the fighters have 26 early victories.
• Match will not reach the distance
Ulanbekov vs Durden
Tagir Ulanbekov occupies the 12th place in the flyweight rankings. The Russian is a former AMC Fight Nights Global and Gorilla Fighting Championship champion. The fighter from Dagestan won six victories in seven fights in the UFC.
The 32-year-old Russian has 15 wins (two by knockout, six by decision, seven by submission) and two defeats.
Cody Durden is ranked 15th in the division rankings. The American is a former champion of the little-known Tennessee promotion Valor Fighting Challenge. The fighter from Georgia won four fights in a row. In the latter in August 2023, he defeated Jake Hadley (unanimous decision).
The 32-year-old Durden has 16 wins (six by knockout, five by decision, five by submission) and four losses.
Bookmakers consider Ulanbekov to be the clear favorite in the fight. However, we disagree for our UFC 296 predictions. Both opponents are approximately equal in strength. Yes, the Russian will have a slight advantage, but one small mistake can lead to disastrous consequences. Durden is an experienced fighter and will definitely not miss his chances.
• Match will not reach the distance
UFC 296 Full Card Predictions: The Best of the Rest
There is no way we can stop at just five predictions when we have such a competitive card. Consider the two UFC 296 predictions below as bonus picks.
Ferguson vs Pimblett Prediction
Tony Ferguson is a former interim UFC lightweight champion. He has been in the UFC since 2011. In addition to MMA, he practices freestyle wrestling, boxing, jiu-jitsu, and Muay Thai. The 39-year-old fighter from California has 25 wins (12 by knockout, 5 by decision, 8 by submission) and nine losses.
El Cucuy has lost six matches in a row. In the latter, in July 2023, he lost to his compatriot Bobby Green (technical knockout).
Paddy Pimblett is a former Cage Warriors welterweight champion. The Baddy hasn't lost in six fights. In the latter, in December 2022, he defeated Jared Gordon (unanimous decision).
The 28-year-old Pimblett has 20 wins (6 by knockout, five by decision, 9 by submission) and three losses. The Liverpool native has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Pimblett is the clear favorite and we agree for our UFC 296 predictions. To be honest, it’s not entirely clear why Ferguson continues to fight. He has clearly not been in ideal shape for a long time and lost six matches in a row. The Englishman must achieve victory over the veteran.
• Pimblett to win via KO/TKO or Submission
Tony vs Paddy CANNOT come sooner 🔥@TonyFergusonXT meets The Baddy on our #UFC296 main card!
Martin Buday signed a contract with the UFC in the spring of 2022. He had four fights and won all of them. In the latter, he defeated American Josh Parisian (submission). Before moving to the UFC, the Slovakian won the championship belt in Oktagon MMA.
The 32-year-old Buday has 13 wins (six by knockout, four by decision, three by submission) and one defeat. The fighter ranks 15th in the heavyweight rankings.
Shamil Gaziev will make his debut in the UFC. Before moving to the promotion, the Russian, who competes under the flag of Bahrain, fought in Brave CF and AMC: Fight Nights Global, but did not achieve great success. In his last fight, as part of Dana White's Contender Series, he defeated American Greg Velasco (submission).
The 33-year-old Gaziev has 11 wins (7 by knockout, 1 by decision, 3 by submission) and not a single defeat at the professional level.
Bookmakers consider Buday the clear favorite for the upcoming fight but we find it hard to agree for our UFC 296 predictions. Both opponents are approximately equal in strength and anthropometric data. Any of them can achieve victory. The fighters have 19 early victories between them.
Vlad is a former amateur MMA fighter. After a series of injuries, he found a different way to connect with the sport and its fanbase - through writing. He's been covering everything-UFC for over 5 years on various platforms and has been part of the team at NYFights since early 2022.
