We will hardly get a more evenly matched card for a PPV event. All contenders here have equal chances to win the titles. This makes it way more difficult to make UFC 295 predictions but also means that there will be better odds for the usual markets. Here are our UFC picks.
UFC 295 Predictions: Two Unbelievable Title Bouts
Prochazka vs Pereira Prediction
After losing the middleweight belt, Pereira immediately switched to the light-heavyweight division, which is a far more suitable weight class for him. His debut was against Blachowicz, who had one of his worst performances ever. Pereira won via decision although he also showed nothing in this match.
What do we expect from him here? We all know that Prochazka will have an explosive start and try to end this match in one round. Pereira will definitely be more defensive and try to exhaust the former champion.
He has always had problems with cardio and he even said it himself – he hates long matches. Unfortunately, Prochazka is a high-pressure fighter and far more skilled than Pereira. He will be forced to defend here.
Jiri Prochazka has 25 KO wins in his career. He won the UFC LHW title in his third match in the UFC but later picked up a terrible shoulder injury and voluntarily vacated his title. While he normally prefers to KO his opponents, we actually suspect that Jiri will try to take Pereira down. After all, Alex has zero ground game. Prochazka also has the advantage in height and physical strength.
Especially if Pereira lands a few of his destructive kicks, we think that Prochazka will be forced to take him down and score some points through control and ground and pound.
Alex Pereira is a dangerous man but he always has problems when he faces high-pressure fighters. For example, we all know that Adesanya is analyzing and looking for the perfect chance. Prochazka is the complete opposite – he will apply pressure without any long pauses.
Overall, betting on a winner here is nearly impossible. Bookmakers give Pereira a slight advantage but we do not agree with them for our UFC 295 predictions. We believe that Prochazka is a far more skilled fighter and unless Pereira KOs him, he will win.
• Prochazka to Win
Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction
Sergei Pavlovich is the holder of the longest streak of 1st round KOs in UFC history. He is absolutely unbelievable and won 15/18 wins via knockout.
You definitely shouldn’t expect any changes to the game plan. Sergei will put pressure on his opponent from the very first second and will do everything to lock Tom at the net and prevent him from moving.
It should not be surprising that the bookmakers this time are not so radical and did not lower the odds for Sergei’s victory to the possible minimum. If there is a person who can withstand his strength and even KO him in return, it is Tom Aspinall.
The main point that causes concern for Sergei is the complete absence of any kind of defense. He is so used to winning within seconds that he often doesn’t care about defending, because he is completely focused on his knockout. But Aspinall is just as dangerous as he is.
Since he entered the roster, Aspinall proved that a heavyweight does not have to go all-in to win. He is incredibly smart, fast and skilled. His style is quite the opposite of what Pavlovich will show in this fight. He will try to keep his distance and pull the Russian apart with jabs, trying to score points.
If he can somehow take the fight into the championship rounds, his advantage will be massive. Due to his speed and cardio, he will undoubtedly win the late rounds on points. Sergei will have to chase him to get a knockout.
We have nothing but respect for Pavlovich and his knockout power but Tom Aspinall is no Derrick Lewis or Tai Tuivasa. Betting on a winner here is an absolute gamble and we wouldn't recommend it. There is no favorite here and we agree with the bookmakers for our UFC 295 predictions. Instead, bet on the Over 1.5 and hope that Aspinall's game plan works. Check out all the best odds for the co-main event here.
• Over 1.5 Rounds
UFC 295 Prelims Predictions: Our Top Pick
Gordon vs Madsen Prediction
Jared is a 35-year-old fighter from the United States. Jared is an all-around fighter who prefers to work in a stand-up position. Thanks to his good boxing base, the American does a huge amount of work on his feet. On average, he throws over 7.00 shots per minute with an accuracy of 50%. He has pretty fast hands and moves well in the octagon.
Gordon uses his wrestling and BJJ skills primarily for defense. He blocks 70+% of takedown attempts and is good at pinning opponents from behind. Against fighters with average grappling, he shows good positional wrestling and control.
The main drawback of the fighter is his cardio due to the fact that he tires himself with weight cutting. 4 of his 6 losses were knockouts. Another reason is that he does not pay enough attention to defensive actions in the stance and misses an average of 4.41 strikes per minute.
Mark is a 39-year-old fighter from Denmark. He came to the UFC in September 2019 and in his debut fought with Danilo Belluardo, whom he defeated by technical knockout in the 1st round. After that, Madsen had 4 more fights and won 3 of them.
Mark is a skilled fighter. He achieved his greatest success in sports outside the UFC. He is an Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling and a 5-time World Championship medalist in this discipline. Therefore, it is natural that he relies heavily on controlling his opponent on the ground.
While Mark showed improvement in his striking skills against Pichel, we believe his skills are not enough to compete with the bulk of top strikers in the lightweight division. He has also not fought in over a year since his defeat to Grant Dawson.
We think that the long downtime will have an effect on Madsen's performance. Moreover, Jared Gordon will be extremely motivated after losing to Paddy and getting a NC against Bobby Green. Bookmakers consider Green a solid favorite here and we agree with them for our UFC 295 predictions.
• Gordon to Win
UFC 295 Full Card Predictions: The Best of the Rest
There is one more bout from the prelims of the UFC 295 fight card that will be extremely competitive and we believe that it is worth betting on.
Sadykhov vs Borshchev Prediction
Nazim Sadykhov earned his UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series show. He has an incredible martial arts background – he practiced karate, sambo, judo, and kickboxing before moving to MMA. His record is 9-1.
Sadykhov is extremely fast – at any second, he can launch an unexpected back fist or spinning kick to the head. The fighter always works at close range and throws out jabs and front kicks. When the opponent is pressed against the net, Nazim loves to use a very specific combo – a side kick to the liver and a punch to the head.
Sadykhov may not have enough technical abilities to “outshoot” Borshchev, but he will compensate for this with his speed. Nazim's explosive high kick or swift jabs will hurt Viacheslav.
Borshchev also received a contract after an appearance in Dana White's Contender Series. He is a former world kickboxing champion and has a record of 7-3 in MMA.
Viacheslav jabs frequently and accurately, not allowing his opponents any freedom. He breaks the opponent's block with sharp side kicks, looking for the moment to deliver a combo to the head.
Viacheslav throws so many low kicks that the opponent cannot defend against them all, which accumulates damage and points for the scorecards.
Borshchev lost to Marc Diakiese, unable to save himself from takedowns. For the same reason, he lost to Mike Davis, but he defended himself much more confidently and did not allow himself to be kept on the ground. If Viacheslav forces a stand-up fight, he will have great chances to outscore Sadykhov.
Nazim will probably transfer Viacheslav, but it will be difficult to finish him on the ground. Perhaps it would be more profitable for Sadykhov to control his opponent on the ground and throw elbows from above, rather than try to take his back. If it happens in round one, we definitely think that the match will be longer. The safest UFC 295 predictions for this match are Over 1.5 or even Over 2.5 rounds.
• Over 1.5 Rounds