UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya Prediction, Best Odds & Analysis

Middleweight mixed martial artist and champion Alex Pereira will take on Israel Adesanya in the upcoming UFC 287 title fight in Miami. Will the Brazilian be able to keep the championship belt or will he lose it on his first defense attempt? Here is our Pereira vs Adesanya prediction.

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya Prediction – Full Analysis and Betting Picks

Alex Pereira Preview

Alex is a 35-year-old fighter from Brazil. He spent most of his fighting career in kickboxing, performing in the Glory promotion, where he became a champion in 2 weight categories.

Alex made his UFC debut in November 2021 against Andreas Mikhailides. Pereira knocked out his opponent in the 2nd round. After that, he defeated Bruno Silva in March 2022, and in June of the same year, he knocked out Sean Strickland in the 1st round.

Alex had his last fight in November 2022. His opponent was Israel Adesanya. Pereira won by knockout in the 5th round. The 35-year-old Latino has seven wins (six by knockout) and one loss. Pereira's winning streak has gone on for seven fights. He holds a black belt in kickboxing.

Alex is most dangerous in the standing position. He combines high-end technique with snapping kicks and good handwork with knockout power.

The Brazilian is gradually becoming a complete MMA fighter but he still lacks the grappling skills to compete qualitatively on the surface.

What do we expect from Alex Pereira in this second fight?

If it's up to the champion, we will see a pretty identical Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya fight. I doubt that we will see any radical new gameplay plan that will help to deceive Adesanya. On the contrary, the straightforward Alex will continue to pressure the enemy, taking much more blows than he planned.

Right now, he just doesn't have the mindset of an MMA fighter, and he doesn't really understand exactly how to rebuild his game plan as the fight progresses.

His chance to win is constant pressure and another successful streak that shocks Adesanya. Pereira has no other options yet.

If Alex continues to try to trade in the stance and does not begin to move more actively on his feet in the later rounds, he will immediately begin to lose points and will not be able to resist Adesanya's retaliatory pressure. We should still see a long match, so we definitely would make a Pereira vs Adesanya prediction on rounds if only the odds weren't that low.

Israel Adesanya Preview

Israel is a 33-year-old fighter from New Zealand. He moved to MMA from professional kickboxing, where he had 80 fights: 75 wins, and 5 losses. Israel made his UFC debut in February 2018 against Rob Wilkinson, whom he knocked out in the 2nd round.

In 2019, Adesanya went on a streak of 6 wins in a row in the UFC and became the interim champion of the promotion. The unification match for the lineal title took place in October 2019. Israel knocked out the champion, Robert Whittaker, in the 2nd round and became the new king of the middle division.

After 2 successful title defenses, in which he beat Yoel Romero and Paolo Costa, Adesanya decided to move up to the light heavyweight division and become a double champion. But Jan Blachowicz made a successful title defense, defeating Adesanya unanimously.

Adesanya has an incredible level of striking technique. He is very fast and technical. For 2 years, Israel has been demonstrating a pragmatic and not very spectacular game plan. He interrupts opponents thanks to accurate shots, non-standard kicks, a good sense of distance, and smart pressing, but frankly works for points.

Israel's love for judicial decisions played a cruel joke on him in the last fight. He is used to the fact that opponents are not ready to go to the end and do not put up the necessary resistance to snatch victory. Adesanya was not ready for Pereira's onslaught and was knocked out.

What do we expect from Israel Adesanya in this second encounter in the UFC?

We think that the second Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya bout will be totally different. Adesanya will no longer drive himself against a wall in an attempt to dodge a series of attacks and launch an attack. Now he will try to shift even more actively and occupy the center of the octagon.

Active high-kicks will also come into play. They worked great in the first fight and practically went undefended by Pereira.

And of course, overhands and return jabs are the main weapons of the Master of the Elements. Adesanya will fine-tune the timings of these shots in order to overtake the straight-forward Pereira as often as possible.

It is the timing component that is the most important aspect of this fight. Adesanya understands the game much better: at what moment it is worth starting an attack, and when – to leave the line. One gets the impression that the straightforward Pereira seriously loses to him in this component and relies only on his size, powerful fists, and strong jaw.

Pereira vs Adesanya Prediction

As you see above, our main Pereira vs Adesanya Prediction is for a win for Adesanya. What Adesanya needed was a loss, a loss that would cheer him up, bring him to the ground, and force him to return to the good old wear and tear training. He received an incredible boost of motivation and is now ready to show us the maximum of what he can do.

He has an incredible arsenal of punches and techniques, but he didn't get the proper level of standing resistance from some of his opposition and was used to using only a fraction of his skills.

This factor largely determined the first fight with Pereira in MMA. Adesanya was overly confident in his classic schemes and didn't allow himself to be distracted.

In the upcoming fight, Israel will be able to control all the enemy's movements and seriously shock him by the middle of the fight. Alex exposed too many problems in defense, and I have no doubt that the Elementalist will do a competent job of correcting the mistakes.