UFC & MMA Betting
UFC 285: Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Prediction
UFC legend Jon Jones and top title contender Ciryl Gane will fight for the vacant UFC heavyweight championship belt. Their fight will be the main event of the massive UFC 285: Jones vs Gane, which will take place tomorrow (Saturday, March 4) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, USA.
Here are the NYF predictions for this main event:
UFC 285: Jones vs Gane Predictions, Odds, Analysis
Jon Jones Preview
Jon Jones is arguably the greatest MMA fighter to step into the Octagon. In a career that spans 28 fights, he has 26 wins, 1 defeat, and 1 NC. He is a two-time UFC light heavyweight champion with 11 successful title defenses. He holds the record for the longest time holding a light heavyweight title in UFC history (1501 days) and was also the youngest fighter to win the UFC title at 23 years of age.
The last time Jones entered the octagon was in February 2020 at UFC 247, where he defeated Dominick Reyes by decision. Critics then recognized this fight as the worst in Bones' career and predicted his imminent defeat in future bouts. But a few years have passed, Jones has gained weight and strength and will make his debut in a new weight category.
This may be the most anticipated return of a fighter in the history of the UFC and Jones is a favorite with the bookmakers. Coming back in a different weight class against a champion-caliber fighter – the best striker in the heavyweight division, is no easy task.
As always, Jones will be extremely accurate in the first rounds. No daring lunges forward and excessive aggression. On the contrary, Jones will force Gan to work as the 1st number and showcase his entire combat arsenal.
John will work a lot with his feet, especially when hitting with the inside of the foot to the opponent's knee area. This is what he often slowed down the overclocked strikers. He will begin to pick up the pace only by the end of the 3rd round when Cyril will no longer be able to move in jumps and will definitely lose speed.
Our only worry ahead of this fight is that while Jones gained weight, it does not appear that he gained too much muscle mass. His physique and lean legs are more suited to a light heavyweight. Jones' main sparring partners in this camp were Maurice Greene and Yorgan de Castro – mediocre fighters, to put it mildly, who hardly helped Jones improve. They are not similar to Gane either technically or in size.
Ciryl Gane Preview
Ciryl Gane is a tactical MMA genius who is used to dismantling opponents at a distance. Gane is able to find the weak side in the opponent's defense in time and break through it throughout the battle. The Frenchman was great with the straightforward striker Tuivasa, but what will he do when faced with Jones?
Ciryl Gane occupies the 2nd line in the heavyweight ranking, second only to Francis Ngannou, who has already terminated his contract with the UFC. The Frenchman is 32 years old and has only lost once in his career – to the former champion by decision. Gane did not expect Ngannou to wrestle him and simply was not ready, while in the stand he easily processed the organization's most powerful puncher.
Ciryl will definitely not allow himself to have a relaxed 1st round, as in a fight with Tai or Ngannou. Instead, he will use his arms as little as possible to hide the length of his attacks for the later rounds. Clinches and low-kicks will go into action, the main task of which is to slow down a “blown up” Jones and pour blood into his muscles, make him fatigued.
It is unlikely that we will see wrestling in this fight, but Gane proved that he is able to fight on the ground even with Francis Ngannou. Ciryl Gane will do everything not to fall into John's trap and try to save as much energy as possible for championship rounds.
Jones vs Ciryl Gane Prediction
We are definitely waiting for the 4th or even the 5th round in this bout. Both fighters are not going to force things, because neither of them knows what to expect from the opponent. Jones has not fought at a competitive level for a long time, his last bout came Feb. 8, 2020. And Jones has not yet met opponents as athletic and fast as Gane. The 32 year old Ciryl Gane, like all of us, to be honest, has no idea how strong and hardy the reborn Bones will be. Also of note: the “reborn” Jones is 35 years old, how near is he to his athletic peak?
Although the difference in odds is not so drastic, we do not think that Jones is such a big favorite. And we will still take the risk and choose Jones as our pick. The decisive arguments in his favor are fighting experience, timing, and accuracy. He knows how to win big fights.
No matter how bad he was in the last fight against Reyes, Jon does not lose his cool for a second and instantly changes the game plan. Bones works much more precisely and more accentuated on counterattacks, and I'm afraid that it is competent timing and referee points that can become a decisive factor in this fight.
But while we pick Jones as our winner, we think that the safest bets are the Over 3.5 or even Over 4.5 markets. This is because we cannot know exactly how good Jones will be with the extra few pounds. We recommend waiting for the first round before making a pick on the winner on Live.
In his prime, Jones was known as a fast Thai-style striker with some of the nastiest elbows, knees, and kicks in the world. He will have to carry extra pounds – not muscles – during this fight. It would be impressive if he kept the same speed, agility, and cardio with his new physique.