UFC & MMA Betting

Poirier vs Gaethje Prediction: Who’s Winning the BMF Belt?



Dustin Poirier will face Justin Gaethje for the vacant BMF title in the lightweight division of the UFC and the winner will most likely get one final chance to fight for the actual belt. Here is our Poirier vs Gaethje prediction.

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje Prediction

Dustin Poirier Preview

Like it or not, at 34, Dustin is already a living UFC legend. The fighter has been with the promotion for 12 years, and his career would already be enough for a couple of seasons of a series for Netflix. Unlike many modern prospects who want to jump into the title after just a couple of fights, Poirier had to fight everyone he was offered, some multiple times.

Poirier is a former Interim UFC Lightweight Champion. He has a black belt in BJJ and has won the post-fight bonus for 12 of his UFC performances. His record is 29 wins, 7 losses, 1 NC.

Having gone through an exhausting championship race from 2020 to 2022, Dustin seems to have realized that if he loses, he will no longer have enough time and strength for another attempt to snatch the title.

Dustin's main weapon will be pressing and jabs at a long distance. No matter how Gaethje tries to pull him apart with long shots, he will still inevitably miss these blows until he reaches a comfortable distance for himself.

Porrier will continue to work as the 1st number and will try to pick up as many points as possible in the starting 5 minutes. Especially for Justin, he has a great setup with double uppercuts and high kicks that deal serious damage even through defense. Is this enough to make a valid Poirier vs Gaethje prediction? Here's something more.

How can Poirier win this bout?

Poirier has absolutely everything in his arsenal to defeat Justin. If he maintains his level of fitness and stabilizes his already excellent stamina, then, just like the 1st time, he will be able to control and set the pace for the entire fight. Poirier needs to get Gaethje to play by his rules and constantly adjust to the pace.

Problems can only begin if Dustin allows the enemy to develop attacks over and over again and pinch himself at the net, as he did in the fight with Chandler. After all, if Michael had enough endurance and skills in BJJ, Poirier would hardly have been able to stop him.

Dustin also needs to be incredibly focused on Justin's legs. It is especially important not to miss a lot of low kicks in the 1st round.

Justin Gaethje Preview

The fight between Gaethje and Fiziev proved that trainer Trevor Whitman was finally able to tame the crazy fighter and make him work as a competent and cold-blooded tactician.

Of course, fans idolize Justin precisely for his aggressive berserker style, so do not think that he betrayed himself and began to avoid carnage. On the contrary, he is ready to go on the attack, but only after he receives all the necessary information about the distance of blows, strength, and speed of the opponent.

For Justin, this fight will also be the most important recognition of merit in the roster. Like Poirier, he understands that this is probably his last chance to shine and collect a decent fee from the sale of PPV. He is also a former Interim UFC Lightweight Champion and a former WSOF Lightweight Champion.

We think that we may see a different Justin Gaethje in the opening round. Gaethje will focus on low kicks and throw them until the Diamond starts frantically changing stances to save his shins for the championship rounds. Gaethje will gather information and pick up the pace in the 2nd round. With this said, we are almost ready for the official Poirier vs Gaethje prediction.

How can Gaethje win this bout?

Justin will need to seriously pump up his stamina and build the entire fight from defense, preserving his strength until the 3-4th round. The starting rounds should be spent in the shadow of Poirier.

Otherwise, if Gaethje responds to every attack and picks up the pace in response, he will lose all his stamina by the middle or end of the 3rd round. In this case, he will either have to risk everything and go for a knockout, or hope that Dustin gets tired more.

Both options are clearly far from the concept of a “champion mindset”, so this time Justin will try to show us a much cooler and smarter version of himself.

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje: “The Diamond” Will Win Again

Although these are two brilliant fighters, our odds, as well as the bookmakers' are in favor of Poirier. And this will be our final Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje prediction. In fact, we have a couple for you – Poirier to win and over 3.5 rounds.

All Dustin needs to do is utilize his entire arsenal and his classic old game plan. His tactics and “soft pressing” have proven to work in fights with aggressive opponents. Fans obviously expect a KO or extreme fighting but these are not the same fighters from five years ago. Each has fought 8 times since then and this will be their final chance to get to a title. With this said – Poirier vs Gaethje prediction summary:

• Dustin Poirier to Win

• Over 3.5 Rounds

Vlad is a former amateur MMA fighter. After a series of injuries, he found a different way to connect with the sport and its fanbase - through writing. He's been covering everything-UFC for over 5 years on various platforms and has been part of the team at NYFights since early 2022.