The UFC interim heavyweight title is on the line as two heavy hitters go face-to-face in the co-main event of UFC 295 on Saturday night. There are sure to be fireworks inside the octagon at Madison Square Garden. Here is our Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction.
UFC 295: Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction
After Jon Jones’ injury meant the end of his fight with Stipe Miocic, UFC fans are left with a tear-up between two men who between them have gone past the first round just once in their UFC careers and are first and second shortest fight times in the promotion. That’s why any Sergei Pavlovic vs Tom Aspinall prediction has to be about who ends it quickest.
Sergei Pavlovich preview
It can’t be too often that the odds of a fight not ending in the first 60 seconds of round one are shorter than they are that the fight will go the distance but Pavlovich’s record inside the octagon is a good reason that it’s only -750 to not end in a minute and only +450 that it will, at UFC 295 this weekend.
The Russian has a 6-1 record for the promotion with none of his previous fights lasting longer than the first round. His loss to Alistair Overeem, the first fight of his UFC career, went as long as 4 minutes and 12 seconds and he’s only been past the four-minute mark once since.
— UFC (@ufc) November 8, 2023
He certainly lets his hands do all his talking once the bell is rung, winning all six of high fights with his fists, with a further nine of his 12 MMA fights previous to joining the UFC also ending in the same fashion.
The 31-year-old has an 84” reach, giving him an advantage over Aspinall, he lands 49% of his significant strikes and lands 8.72 strikes per minute.
The Brit has described his opponent as the ‘most dangerous man in the UFC’ and the Russian has the second shortest fight time.
You can probably get some idea of our Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction.
Tom Aspinall preview
Is Aspinall ready to become only the third British UFC champion after Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards? We’re about to find out.
Like his opponent, the Brit has only lost one of his fights since signing with Dana White’s promotion and that came against Curtis Blaydes, when he suffered a knee injury within just 15 seconds.
There may still be some questions about whether or not that’s had a long term impact on the Manchester born fighter, considering his only outing since recovering was the stoppage of Marcin Tybura after just 1 minute and 15 seconds back in July.
The other question about whether or not the 30-year-old will be ready comes in the difference in both men’s preparations. Whilst they both only found out they’d be fighting a couple of weeks ago, Pavlovich was preparing to fight Jones or Miocic as the understudy to the original main event, meaning a full camp and more time to mentally prepare.
— UFC (@ufc) November 8, 2023
That said, Aspinall has plenty in his locker that could lead to victory, after all he’s the man with the shortest fight time ahead of his opponent.
He also has two wins by submission, suggesting he has more weapons in his arsenal to be crowned interim champ and is why he’s a slight favorite in the odds, but will he be in our Pavlovich vs Aspinall predictions?
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Prediction: This Isn't Going to the Judges
If anyone makes a Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction that sees it going the full five rounds then you might want to suggest they seek help.
The odds are +1600 for the Russian to win by that method, +1400 for the Brit and +6500 for it to be a draw.
Aspinall has said that it’s tough to find a weakness in his opponent because there simply hasn’t been time to find one. Working that out quickly inside the octagon is the likely path to victory for him, if he can.
Rounds wise it’s -320 to be over 0.5 but only +225 to last less than 0.5 rounds, which again gives you some idea of when this fight is likely to end.
Perhaps Aspinall’s best chance of picking up the W will be to find a way to take Pavlovich outside of the first round, a place he’s not been to since 2017, and wear him out a bit.
The difference in Pavlovich’s chances winning as the fight goes into later rounds decreases compared to his opponents.
For example, the 2nd highest rated heavyweight in UFC is +200 to win in round one compared to Aspinall’s +175, a difference of just 25.
However in round two that increases to +800 for Pavlovich and +700 for the world number seven, now there’s a 100 point difference in the chances of Aspinall coming out on top, and the trend continues that way until it’s +5500 to +5000 in the fifth and +1600 to +1400 for a decision victory.
Aspinall by submission in round two is extremely tempting at +1800 but we’re going to go a bit less risqué with our Pavlovich vs Aspinall predictions.
This really is either man’s fight, which makes it such a tough one to predict a winner.
- Pavlovich by TKO
- Pavlovich to win in Rounds 1-2
- Fight to end inside the first 60 seconds of Round 1