Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson Prediction: UFC 279 Betting Odds and Picks

UFC 279 will go down in history for numerous reasons – backstage brawls, multiple fighters missed weight, and the three main events of the full card went through a complete rotation and instead of the original fights, we have three new bouts. The original main event was supposed to be between Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz. Now, Diaz will face Tony Ferguson in the updated main fight. Here are our predictions.

UFC 279 Main Event: Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson (Welterweight Bout)

Nate Diaz Preview

Nate is a 37-year-old American fighter. In 2007, he took part in the 5th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he defeated Mani Gamburyan by TKO in the final and received a contract with the UFC.

His debut took place in September of the same year in a duel against Junior Assuncao, whom he defeated by choke in the 1st round. In total, Nate spent 25 fights in the UFC: 14 won, 11 lost.

Diaz last fought in July 2021. His opponent was Leon Edwards. Nate lost by unanimous decision.

Nate used to be a truly uncompromising all-around fighter. On the stand, he uses his supreme boxing skills. Diaz attacks in long combinations. This allows him to break the opponent's timing and bypass his defense in the standing position, landing a large number of punches.

On the ground, he relies on BJJ. He is dangerous from any position because he has an extensive arsenal of painful techniques. Diaz has good cardio and can work at a high pace for 5 rounds.

But in the fight against Leon Edwards, Nate was no longer that uncompromising gangster. He looked like a clown. He spent most of his time in the octagon on inappropriate antics, and not on dangerous offensive moves. Even when Diaz seriously shook Leon Edwards at the end of the fight, he began to grimace and point his finger, and did not go to finish off his opponent and snatch the victory. So Nate Diaz gave Leon Edwards the win.

Tony Ferguson Preview

Tony is a 38-year-old American fighter. In 2011, he took part in the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he knocked out Ramsey Nijem in the 1st round in the final and received a contract with the UFC. Ferguson made his debut in September 2011 in a duel against Aaron Riley, whom he defeated by technical knockout in the 1st round.

In total, Tony had 19 fights in the UFC: 14 won, 5 lost. Ahead of this new main event, he has 4 defeats in a row:

• Justin Gaethje – TKO in the 5th round;
• Charles Oliveira – Lost by unanimous decision
• Beneil Dariush – lost by unanimous decision;
• Michael Chandler – 2nd round knockout.

The fight against Chandler was the last of Tony's career. It passed in May 2022.

Tony is a versatile fighter. He practices not only traditional MMA kickboxing but also the more exotic Wing Chun. Thanks to this, he is able to unpleasantly surprise the opponent with sophisticated combinations, incredible shots, and constant inventive pressure.

Using a non-standard fighting IQ, Ferguson can harvest one move over several rounds. And his elbow strikes leave terrible cuts too.

For his versatility and creativity, Tony pays with gaps in his technique that he cannot or does not want to fix. Due to his straightforwardness and lack of a good boxing base, Tony misses a lot of punches. He allows opponents to cut corners and successfully catch him on counterattacks. It was this weakness of Ferguson that Justin Gaethje took advantage of.

Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush showed that Tony has problems when fighting powerful wrestlers.

Diaz vs Ferguson Prediction

There are several fights that have not happened in the UFC that fans have always dreamed about. We can give examples such as Nurmagomedov – Ferguson – a fight that was supposed to happen three or more times. But then we have Diaz vs Ferguson. Two of the legendary fighters with the biggest fan bases. And both at the end of their careers. This has been a fight that fans have always wished to see and Diaz and Ferguson will undoubtedly give us their absolute best. Moreover, this is likely to be the final fight for both of them in the UFC. Both fighters are extremists that go all-in every time and while a knockout is highly possible, we expect a long fight that will go down in history.

UFC 279 Co-Main Event: Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland

We are putting this analysis here instead of the UFC 279 Full Card Predictions because Khamzat Chimaev was supposed to be in the main event of the evening. After the rotations due to him missing weight, he will now fight Kevin Holland in the co-main event but unlike the usual fight, this will be a 5-round battle. Therefore, here is our in-depth analysis of this fight and our prediction.

Khamzat Chimaev Preview

Khamzat is a 27-year-old fighter from Sweden. He made his UFC debut in July 2020 against John Phillips, who was choked in the 2nd round. In total, Chimaev had 5 fights in the UFC, and he won in each, and in 4 of them, he won ahead of schedule. Khamzat's last fight was in April 2022. His opponent was Gilbert Burns. Chimaev won by unanimous decision.

Khamzat is a versatile fighter. He wins fights due to high aggression, and constant pressure. In the standing position, he relies on good technique, and accurate and powerful punches. On the ground, Chimaev demonstrates excellent positional wrestling, devastating ground and pound, and a wide arsenal of submissions.

In the last fight, Khamzat showed that his knockout power is not an ultimatum. He couldn't knock out Gilbert Burns, who had 2 of his last 3 losses by knockout. It was also revealed that Khamzat could have problems. He did not pay enough attention to defense and missed dangerous shots from Burns.

Kevin Holland Preview

Kevin is a 29-year-old American fighter. In 2018, he came to Dana White's Contender Series, where he defeated Will Santiago by unanimous decision and signed with the UFC.

Holland's debut took place in 2018 in a duel against Thiago Santos, whom he lost by unanimous decision. In total, Kevin spent 15 fights in the UFC: 10 won, 4 lost, and 1 fight was declared invalid.

Kevin's last fight was in June 2022. His opponent was Tim Means. Holland won by choke in the 2nd round and received the award for Best Performance of the Night.

Holland is a versatile fighter who does a lot of work. In the stand, he has good footwork and unusual shots. In addition, Kevin has enough power in his fists to knock out an opponent with one punch.

Chimaev vs Holland Prediction

Fans will get a delightful co-main event but we believe that this fight will end early. It will be a 5-rounder but Khamzat Chimaev is far more dominant than Kevin Holland and with their recent brawl backstage, we expect this to be a war. Both fighters will try to knock out the opponent and we expect this to end in round 1 or round 2. Of course, this could end up being a similar case to the Gilbert Burns fight but Khamzat should be more mindful of his game plan and we expect a dominant win.