Two of the UFC’s best flyweights meet for the second time in their careers on Saturday night, with another shot at the champion potentially up for grabs for the winner. There will be little love lost in Mexico and one man will have to battle his nemesis and a raucous home crowd.
We’ve got all the news in our Moreno vs Royval 2 prediction, including everything you need to know from their first fight.
Both men’s most recent fights have been in losses to the flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and they’ll be desperate to get themselves back in contention for gold. However, neither can afford to take their eyes off what’s in front of them in Mexico City as it’s an extremely live fight and it could go either way.
We’ll be explaining exactly what we’re thinking about the fight in our Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval 2 prediction as Royval looks to get revenge on his defeat the first time that these two MMA stars met in the Octagon.
Our Moreno vs Royval 2 Prediction: Take Two For Home Favorite Moreno
Maybe the last thing either of these two men would have wanted would be staring the other down in the Octagon once again this weekend. Royval at least has revenge on his mind when the opening bell goes on Saturday.
Both of them are getting very used to fighting opponents more than once, with Moreno having a legendary saga of bouts against Deiveson Figueiredo and Royval having faced Pantoja on two occasions. That said, neither man will have much of an issue if they get to come up against the champion again in the near future.
Moreno was supposed to be taking on the number three ranked Amir Albazi, but the Iraqi fighter had to pull out due to a neck injury, with the doctors not allowing him to compete. In steps Royval for what is a very interesting rematch, with a hot home crowd likely to be giving Moreno a boost.
Moreno Is Tough To Stop
Whilst he might be best known for his offensive skills, ‘the Assasin Baby’ isn’t exactly the easiest fighter to put away.
In fact, he’s never been on the losing end of a fight when it’s been finished inside the distance. Moreno can be beaten on points, and has been seven times in his career, but finishing him early isn’t really in the stars. It’s no wonder when his significant strike defense is over 50{7977e81067aa52767c5a045b6a52bbfc36ac9a3ee7fc87b6a1495c50622a5d53} and defends 64{7977e81067aa52767c5a045b6a52bbfc36ac9a3ee7fc87b6a1495c50622a5d53} of takedown attempts on him.
Royval only has two wins by judges’ decision in his career so far and prefers to win by knockout or submission. However, with Saturday’s opponent so difficult to finish in either of those ways it feels unlikely that he’s going to get the victory and avenge the defeat in their first meeting.
Royval’s Attack Can Be His Downfall
In soccer we often talk about attack being the best form of defense, it’s certainly worked a lot for the best teams in recent years. With that being the case, Royval is all about the defense, but that’s because he likes to come forward.
Against most people that’s an advantage and it’s why he’s won so many fights by early finish and earned him a shot at the title. However, Moreno’s defense is very good and he’ll put himself in a great position to make sure he can capitalize if his opponent leaves himself too open by attacking.
That is partially what happened in their first meeting, even if a shoulder injury did also play a part. ‘Rawdog’ put himself in a precarious position when he went for a leglock without protecting himself and paid the ultimate price.
Big Fight Experience
Both men’s most recent fight was for the UFC title against Pantoja, and both lost. However, that doesn’t mean that they both have the same level of experience when it comes to these big nights.
Moreno hasn’t been in a fight that wasn’t for the title since he beat Royval in their first rendezvous inside the Octagon back in November 2020. Since then he’s been in six title bouts, with very differing levels of success and failure.
With a hot crowd in Mexico and the possibility of another shot at the gold up for grabs, there will no doubt be plenty of pressure, and there is no one as experienced for a big fight as Moreno.
That said, if there is one question mark over the former champion’s head it’s about how much the past few years have taken out of him. He’s had wars with Figueiredo and Pantoja in recent times, especially the split decision loss to the latter, he certainly didn’t come away with his reputation bruised but how much did it take out of him?
Best Betting Odds and Strategy for Moreno vs Royval 2
Based on our assessments of the fighters we’ve got our Moreno vs Royval predictions for you. These are all the bets we think make sense for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 237 main event.
Brandon Moreno to win by TKO/KO: There is a pretty big split in the Moneyline odds for this one, with the Mexican a -290 favorite. We expect him to be victorious once again and the odds aren’t too appealing. On the other hand, the 30 year old has decent odds to win by TKO/KO once again.
Fight under 3.5 rounds: It’s unlikely that things will end quite as quickly this time around, surely? Royval would likely have to suffer a second injury for that to happen and that would just be really unfortunate. But we do think that it’ll be over before the end of the third round. Royval’s two defeats inside the distance have both come in that time so it stands to reason that will continue.
Brandon Moreno to win by TKO/KO in Round 3: Okay, it’s time to put our big boy pants on and put our money where our mouth is. Not only are we saying it’ll be below 3.5 rounds for the win we’re going even more specific and taking the first two and a half minutes of the third round as the end point to this one. Call it a feeling, but that’s the faith we have in Moreno to get it done.
Latest Moreno vs Royval 2 Odds
Moreno TKO/KO @ +300
Total rounds under 3.5 @ +110
Moreno to win by TKO/KO in Round 3 @ +1800
Full Moreno vs Royval 2 Preview
You’ve heard our Moreno vs Royval 2 predictions for this weekend, now let’s dig further into the details. Read on for a full breakdown of each fighter’s stats, and how they match up at this stage of their careers.
Brandon Moreno – The Baby Assasin
Few fighters in UFC, or the wider world of MMA, have had the kind of last few years as Moreno. He has constantly produced bangers in his stretch of UFC title fights and his four fights with Figueiredo feel like UFC’s version of Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez and should go down in the promotion’s history.
The Mexican made his UFC debut back in 2016, with a five year career in the sport already behind him, before going 3-0 in his opening run. He then lost back to back fights to Sergio Pettis and future title rival Pantoja. He then won four of the next five fights, with one no-contest, with the final fight in that run against Royval.
That earned him a title shot against Figueiredo, which ended in a draw. The two then traded victories and the title in their following bouts. After beating Kai Kara-France to win the belt for the second time, he ended the rivalry with Figueiredo with a win.
His last outing was the second loss to Panotja and the second time he’s lost the title. That leaves him with a 21-7-2 record with five wins by knockout and 11 by submission.
Brandon Royval – All Action Royval
Royval has a bit of everything to his game, which is why, despite our predictions, we wouldn’t be too surprised if he caused an upset in Mexico. He has been known for being all out attack in the past but he’s pulled that back a little in recent times and can be more patient.
The American’s striking technique is usually described as ‘unique’ or ‘unusual’ and it does make it tough to defend against him. On top of that he’s also decent on the ground and has beaten eight men by submission throughout his MMA career.
He’s only been submitted or knocked out once each so far but that KO was from Saturday’s opponent in their first meeting.
‘Rawdog’ won his first two fights in UFC before being beaten by Moreno and Pantoja in back to back fights. That order could be reversed if he were to lose at UFC Fight Night 237.
His next three bouts were all victories and that earned him a shot at Pantoja’s title back in December but he was on the losing end of the judges’ decision.
Royval wasn’t originally supposed to be involved in this one and it’s possible that his return comes too soon after a five round war with the champion just a few months ago and with not much time to prepare.
He comes into this one with an MMA record of 15-7, with 13 of those victories coming inside the distance.
Ryan Sidle is a sports journalist with nearly a decade in the industry. He's been interested in boxing since Mike Tyson vs Frank Bruno and his MMA fandom was sparked by Michael Bisping and Anderson Silva.
