Despite two mouthwatering battles to conclude UFC 295, NYFights has to deliver a Frevola vs Saint-Denis prediction as well, in what could well be a fight that battles for the Fight of the Night award.
The Frenchman, Benoit Saint-Denis, puts his 12-1 record to the test, as he looks to establish himself as a future contender at just 27 years of age. Matt Frevola, however, will be no walk in the park for him, with the American sitting on a three-fight win streak after a sensational Performance of the Night triumph against Drew Dober back in May.
Let's take a look at our Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis prediction where a lot is at stake for these two lightweights.
UFC 295: Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction
Matt Frevola Preview
This will be Frevola's ninth UFC fight since making his debut with a defeat to Polo Reyes in what his first professional loss. The American now heads into this fight with 11 wins and only three losses, and he has been sitting comfortably in the win column for the past year after three wins in a row.
His most recent win was arguably his most impressive when he TKO'd Drew Dober in the first round and inside the first minute. Frevola's full display of power and technique was shown that night, as he ducked and dipped out the way of a combination to follow up with a clean right hand and brutal strikes on the ground.
"I know that the winner of this fight, a star is going to be born and it's going to be me."
— UFC News (@UFCNews) November 9, 2023
Ultimately, given Saint-Denis' magical work in grappling exchanges, superior strength and judo experience, NYFights doesn't see how Frevola wins this fight unless he gets a knockout. Based on current form, however, he has a chance of doing so. In fact, prior to Dober, he beat Ottman Azaitar via TKO with a beautiful combination of a right-hand uppercut and as good as a left hook as you'll see.
The 33-year-old also got rid of Genaro Valdez with another TKO before that win over Azaitar, meaning he has not got out of the first round during his current three-fight win streak.
Our Frevola vs Saint-Denis prediction for the American, if he is to win, he likely has to get the Frenchman out of there before the final bell.
Benoit Saint-Denis Preview
What a rise it has been for Sanit-Denis ever since his debut loss in the UFC just over a year ago. Since then, he has gone on to beat fellow finisher Niklas Stolze via rear-naked choke in round two, and followed this up with a fantastic TKO over Gabriel Miranda that earned him a Performance of the Night award.
Isnmael Bonfim was up next for Saint-Denis, and he earned his ninth career submission from just 14 fights with a face crank within the final 12 seconds of the round. Last time out, Saint-Denis truly threw himself amongst the future stars with a TKO win in his homeland of France by beating Thiago Moisés in round two with his third KO/TKO win from his 12 victories.
The Frenchman does, however, remain unranked compared to Frevola, but a victory here would launch him into the top 15. In fact, he is a heavy favorite in our Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis prediction, and he sits at odds of -230 to win and -150 to get his 13th win from 15 fights via either a submission or knockout.
In what is promising for the 27-year-old, he will be fully aware that two of Frevola's three losses have been via KO/TKO, most recently against Terrance McKinney two years ago in the first round. He will, on the other hand, need to be much more careful in the striking exchanges because of Frevola's power, and NYFights believes he will have to shoot for a takedown relatively early and implement his far superior grappling.
Frevola vs Saint-Denis Prediction: An All-Out War Expected
At UFC 295 and for our Frevola vs Saint-Denis prediction, we see nothing but a win for the Frenchman. He truly is one of the brightest prospects in what is arguably the most competitive division down at lightweight, and a win here would stamp his authority on the top 15 ranked places.
Odds of -150 to get the finish via submission or KO/TKO says a lot about his talent when you take into account the excellent three-fight win Frevola is on. A lot this comes down to Saint-Denis' huge size and physical capabilities down at 155. In fact, he bounced between super lightweight, welterweight and even middleweight between the years of 2019-2022 until settling on lightweight in the UFC.
Saint-Denis also stands two inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage, and it's his superiority in these departments that allows him to put his black belt in judo and exceptional jiu-jitsu skills on full display.
Should you back Frevola's corner in your Frevola vs Saint-Denis prediction, however, based on the points above, NYFights only sees him winning via KO/TKO. His opponent is simply going to be too quick, sharp and big for him to start any sort of grappling exchange, and the more the minutes go on in the fight, the more Saint-Denis will start to take charge and use his judo.
Frevola's power has been on full display in recent fights, and he has not seen the second round by knocking out his last three opponents. Better yet, the way he sets up his finishes is excellent. Frevola throws punches in bunches, but he does so cleanly, efficiently and with precision, as shown in his knockout over Azaitar two fights ago.
You can get odds of +390 for Frevola to win via KO/TKO, but for our Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis prediction, we're heading for a Saint-Denis submission win at +300.