The UFC returns home to the fight capital of the world after a swing on the east coast for UFC Vegas 73 – Dern vs Hill.
The main card features an unusual catchweight fight between two young female fighters aiming to make a statement. American Emily Ducote was originally booked to face Polyana Viana at UFC Fight Night: Song vs Simon, but now finds herself with a new opponent in Lupita Gomez.
Gomez steps into this fight as Viana’s replacement on just a week’s notice, fresh off the heels of defeating Cynthia Calvillo just six weeks ago. It’s a fascinating matchup, so let’s break down each fighter before offering our Ducote vs Godinez prediction.
UFC Vegas 73: Ducote vs Godinez Prediction
Emily Ducote Preview: Former Invicta Champ Looking To Rebound
Two fights into her debut UFC contract, Emily Ducote (12-7) began her UFC career with an impressive win over Jessica Penne. The former Invicta Strawweight champion then lost the second fight of her UFC career to half of Saturday night’s main event, Angela Hill, by unanimous decision this past December. Hill put an end to Ducote’s four-fight win streak that night, which included two knockouts and a successful defence of her Invicta Strawweight title.
Arguably Ducote’s biggest strength is how well rounded she is as a fighter. She is an accurate striker with a wicked left hook and can chop trees with aggressive leg kicks.
Her gas tank maybe isn’t the deepest in the division, and work will have been done in this latest training camp to improve her clinch work and footwork. Sloppy footwork on Saturday night may open up opportunities for Godinez to do some damage, especially if her opponent manages to bring her to the mat.
Lupita Godinez Preview: A Dangerous Stylistic Matchup For Ducote
Lupita Godinez (9-3) was in a similar situation to that of next opponent, losing to Angela Hill back in August via unanimous decision. Hill put an end to momentum Godinez built up after two unanimous decision wins over Loma Lookboonmee and Ariane Carnelossi. ‘Loopy’ responded to the Hill loss with a split decision win over Cynthia Calvillo in April.
Where Godinez has the big advantage in this fight is on the ground. Her wrestling is excellent, and her takedowns are dangerous. ‘Loopy’ will often finish combinations off with a takedown, doing damage with the hands before capitalising by dragging her opponents into her wheelhouse on the ground. Recent fights have seen Godinez stray away from this game plan a little, but her most dominant victories have come when she has leaned into her wrestling skills.
Therefore, Godinez's best chance of winning is to stick to the trusty game plan. She must walk down her opponent while maintaining good footwork and head movement and make this a wrestling match. As mentioned, Godinez should be looking to use combinations to set up her takedowns and to get Ducote on her back.
Emily Ducote vs Lupita Godinez Prediction: If Fight Goes The Distance, Godinez The Likely Winner
It’s a difficult fight to call, especially off such short notice, but Vegas currently have ‘Loopy’ Godinez as the slight favourite over Emily Ducote:
Ducote +135
Godinez -155
It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the catchweight of 120lbs will influence this bout. The number gives Godinez a good chance to make the weight at short notice but may also mean both fighters can be stronger and more explosive.
In a more explosive fight, this could help the underdog in Ducote. She’s a super striker and packs power for the division, which will be amplified with the leniency allowed on the scales. Whenever Godinez steps into range, Ducote must lean on her boxing while using leg kicks to soften up her opponent. Causing damage with kicks could be the key to this fight for Ducote as it could slow the momentum down of Godinez as she inevitably looks for the takedown. I can become Ducote’s biggest defensive weapon to keep Godinez at range and causing damage while protecting herself for potentially being taken down.
Ducote has the ability and power to win this battle, but unless her footwork has improved Godinez’s wrestling is looking too strong. Godinez can also throw hard leg kicks which could provide issues for Ducote’s already questionable footwork. Her gas tank is deeper and although her opponent is more well-rounded, Godinez can take this fight into the later rounds and take advantage as her opponent tires – especially if she can take her to the ground.
Expect Godinez to out-work her opponent in terms of volume on Saturday night with an early takedown and some grappling. The longer this fight goes on, the more it plays into ‘Loopy’s hands. Our official Ducote vs Godinez prediction is a victory for Godinez by decision.
