Dern vs Yan - Dern by Submission
Trinaldo vs Brown - No Distance
Mackenzie Dern will face Xiaonan Yan in the main event of this UFC Fight Night. The American is one of the most promising female athletes in the organization and this fight is extremely important for her future. Here are our predictions for the main event of UFC Vegas 61.
UFC Vegas 61 Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan Predictions
Mackenzie Dern Preview
Mackenzie is a 29-year-old American athlete. She made her UFC debut in 2018 against Ashley Yoder, whom she defeated by a split decision. In total, Dern had 9 fights in the UFC: 7 won, 2 lost.
In October 2021, Mackenzie lost by unanimous decision to Marina Rodriguez. This defeat threw her out of the title race. In the last fight, Dern won by defeating Tecia Torres by a split decision.
Mackenzie is a black belt in BJJ and her forte is groundwork. She has an incredible irregular style and knows how to get a submission from the weirdest positions. She won 7 out of her 12 fights by submissions. Over the past few years, Mackenzie has also perfected her striking technique. She has a well-placed strike, good accuracy, and mobility.
Be that as it may, Dern can have serious problems when put against a strong boxer. She does not think about defense at all and someone with solid striking skills could easily knock her out.
Xiaonan Yan Preview
Yan is a 33-year-old athlete from China. She made her UFC debut in June 2018 against Viviane Pereira, whom she defeated via unanimous decision.
In total, Xiaonan had 8 fights in the UFC: 6 won, 2 lost. In May 2021, Yan met Carla Esparza in a fight for the title of contender, whom she lost by technical knockout in the 2nd round. The Chinese woman had her last fight in March 2022. Marina Rodriguez was her opponent. Xiaonan lost by a split decision.
Xiaonan Yan has a wushu-sanda background. She prefers to work in a standing position, throwing a lot of punches aggressively. Thanks to his high mobility, Yang moves well in the octagon and can effectively close and break the distance.
The Chinese woman defends herself well from transfers in the clinch at the cage but has poor defense against takedown attempts in the center of the octagon. If she is taken down on the ground, she has a good defense but does not know how to get back to her feet. So if taken down, it usually means that this round goes in favor of the opponent because Yan will only get back up on her feet after the end of the round.
Dern vs Yan Prediction
Mackenzie implements her classic game plan in all fights: she will get close to the opponent, take her to the ground and attempt a variety of submissions. Xiaonan does not have punching power, she wins due to the large volume of accurate, fast, but weak punches. Such a strategy will not stop Dern, who is rushing like a tank to her opponent.
Rodriguez defeated Mackenzie because she hits hard and accurately. Due to the damage she received, Dern began to take risks and make mistakes, which made her unable to seize the initiative. When Mackenzie takes the Chinese woman to the ground, it will only be a matter of time before she finishes her.
UFC Fight Night 211 Co-Main Event: Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo
Besides the main event, the UFC Fight Night 211 Main Card and Prelims have a bunch of promising fights. Even the co-main event that will include one of the oldest fighters in the organization could be explosive.
Randy Brown Preview
Randy is a 32-year-old American fighter. He made his UFC debut in 2016 against Matt Dwyer, whom he defeated via unanimous decision. In total, Brown spent 13 fights in the UFC: 9 won, 4 lost.
Randy confidently defeated mid- and low-level opponents, but with an increase in the level of the opposition, he lost. Brown last fought in May 2022. His opponent was Khaos Williams. Randy won by split decision.
Brown is a versatile fighter. Being a boxer, he is most effective in the standing position. Randy marks the distance well with a jab, quickly moves around the octagon, and throws combinations on different levels.
Once on the ground, he always tries to get a submission. I note his good defense against takedowns. The Jamaican blocks 71% of the opponent's attempts to take him to the ground.
Due to the fact that Brown prefers to play at a calm pace, he breaks down under the pressure of an opponent. Despite holding a purple belt in BJJ, Randy has trouble fighting BJJ specialists.
Francisco Trinaldo Preview
Francisco is a 44-year-old fighter from Brazil. He made his UFC debut in June 2012 against Delson Heleno, whom he knocked out in the 1st round. In total, Trinaldo had 25 fights in the UFC: 18 won, 7 lost.
Francisco, like Randy Brown, confidently passed mid- and low-level opponents but lost to top opponents. The Brazilian last fought in May 2022. His opponent was Danny Roberts. Francisco won by unanimous decision.
Francisco is a 3-time Brazilian kickboxing champion. With such a background, it's no wonder he prefers to fight on the stand. He has preparations for every fight that he tries to implement. Trinaldo confuses opponents with feints and tricks, forcing them to open up, which is why most of his attacks are effective.
Francisco is an age veteran. He is inferior in speed to most rivals. Despite having a brown belt in BJJ, Trinaldo looks weak on the ground. He makes blunders, thanks to which rivals occupy more advantageous positions.
Brown vs Trinaldo Prediction
Brown breaks down under pressure and Francisco fights aggressively on the stand. The Brazilian throws heavy punches and can crush Randy backing away while taking the punches. The American, meeting with hard-hitting boxers, was finished twice. We won't be surprised if Francisco knocks out his opponent in the 2nd round.
If Randy succeeds in taking the fight to the ground, then he will be able to wear the Brazilian down with ground and pound and control and, most likely, will catch him on a mistake and submit him. We think that this fight will not go to distance, meaning that the third round may start but the fight will end before the final gong.