Dawson vs Green Prediction: Talent vs Experience in the Main Event
Published
on
By
Vladislav Tchakarov
Bobby Green never rests and is back for the third time since April. Last time, he beat Tony Ferguson but now, he will face one of the toughest prospects in the division. This will be the biggest test in Grant Dawson's career. Here is our Dawson vs Green prediction.
UFC Fight Night 229: Dawson vs Green Prediction
Grant Dawson Preview
Grant is a 29-year-old fighter from the United States. In August 2017, he came to Dana White's Contender Series show, where he choked out Andriano Diaz in the 2nd round and received a contract with the UFC.
Grant’s debut took place in March 2019 in a fight against Julian Erosa, whom he defeated by unanimous decision. In total, Dawson had 9 fights in the UFC: 8 won, 1 fight ended in a draw.
Grant had his last fight in July 2023. His opponent was Damir Ismagulov and Dawson won via unanimous decision.
Grant's base is freestyle wrestling, backed by a brown belt in BJJ. Dawson confidently performs takedowns, controls his opponents well, and carries out competent positional wrestling. Grant achieved 13 of his 20 victories via submission.
In the standup, Dawson does a lot of work, applying aggressive pressure and throwing a lot of punches from different angles. We have to note his persistence. He never stops working until the final second. In the 3rd round of the fight against Leonardo Santos, it was unclear who the judges would give preference to. Dawson took the initiative, decided to take the victory, and finished Santos brilliantly with 1 second left in the fight.
The athlete lacks a boxing base. He gets very carried away in attack, which is why he misses a lot of punches. Dawson can also surprise with a sudden drop in cardio, as was the case in the fight against Ricky Glen, which ended in a draw. Grant was so tired by the last round that he could not compete and lost the last five minutes with a score of 10-8.
He has the age advantage over Green but he definitely lacks experience at the top level. This makes it hard to make a Dawson vs Green prediction in favor of the young American.
Bobby Green Preview
Bobby is a 37-year-old fighter from the United States. He made his UFC debut in February 2013. Green joined the UFC roster after Dana White and the Ferrita Brothers bought Strikeforce. In his debut, Green choked out Jacob Volkmann in the 3rd round.
In total, Bobby fought 22 fights in the UFC: won 11, lost 9, 1 match ended in a draw and one was NC. Green fought his last fight in July 2023. His opponent was Tony Ferguson. Bobby won via technical submission in the 3rd round.
Bobby is a versatile fighter who prefers to work in a stand-up position. He throws precise short combinations and works effectively across different levels. I note the American’s good defense; he constantly maneuvers and keeps his hands to his chin, which is why he misses few punches.
Green's low takedown performance prevents him from realizing his wrestling potential. Only 25% of his attempts to take his opponent to the ground are successful.
Bobby Green has been one of the most active fighters in the UFC since joining. He had a solid start with four wins but once he reached the highest level, it became clear that he is not strong enough. He is kind of a gatekeeper and never declines a fight.
He will have serious problems against Grant Dawson and his only advantage is the experience. Dawson has not yet faced any top opponents while over the years, Bobby fought against the likes of Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza, Clay Guida, Rafel Fiziev, Islam Makhachev, and Tony Ferguson.
Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green Prediction: We Expect At Least Three Rounds
Bookmakers consider Dawson the complete favorite in this bout but we do not agree with them for our Dawson vs Green prediction. Both fighters have similar physical characteristics and Green is far more experienced at this level. Both fighters can win this one. We do believe that Dawson will end up with the victory but we expect a long battle.
Most of Green's latest bouts ended in the late minutes of the match, often via decision. Grant Dawson definitely finished most of his early opponents but in the UFC, he almost always reaches the third round or the decision. He has never faced an opponent like Green, so we see the over here.
Vlad is a former amateur MMA fighter. After a series of injuries, he found a different way to connect with the sport and its fanbase - through writing. He's been covering everything-UFC for over 5 years on various platforms and has been part of the team at NYFights since early 2022.
