Are you ready for a sensational fight card this Friday night? You better be, because our Bellator 301 predictions have come round thick and fast for what could be the fight card of the year with two title bouts and two more former champions making up a stacked event in Chicago.
Bellator 301 Predictions: Our Top Picks
Amosov vs Jackson Prediction
The main card in the Windy City will be closed out with a battle for the welterweight crown, as the unbeaten Yaroslav Amosov takes on the former LFA welterweight king, Jason Jackson. Understandably so, Amosov heads into this one as a big favorite at -430.
In truth, the Ukrainian is easily in the top five pound for pound fighters in the world, and if he was fighting in the UFC, NYFights would probably be putting him in the top three. So far, Amosov has lost only a handful of rounds in his career, as Roberto Soldic took one off him in a three-round affair back in 2016, while Logan Storley managed to lose on a split decision too back in late 2020.
On the other hand, he went on to beat Storley for the second time earlier this year and put to bed any doubts about their first fight, and this only shows just how good Amosov is. What's more, he also has a very healthy split across his unbeaten 27-fight career, winning nine fights via KO/TKO, 10 via submission and the other eight on points, proving he is far from a one-trick pony.
Jackson deserves respect in his own way, however, and has now put together a six-fight win streak after losing his Bellator debut against Ed Ruth.
NYFights' Amosov vs Jackson prediction is an easy pick for the champion. He is simply too good in the grappling department, and will be fully aware that two of Jackson's four losses have been via KO/TKO. NYFights expects Amosov to rack up a few rounds in this five-round battle and likely get the finish towards the end of the fight, as Jackson is far inferior with his MMA skillset.
Prediction: Amosov via submission or KO/TKO.
Pettis vs Mix Prediction
The second of the two title fights lands in the co-main event, as Sergio Pettis looks to dive deeper into legendary status over in Bellator as he takes on the interim champion, Patchy Mix.
Following a tough ride in the UFC, Pettis moved to Bellator where he remains unbeaten and has recently added the greatest Bellator fighter of all time, Patricio Pitbull, to his record. The American defeated the Brazilian via unanimous decision back in June of this year, defending the bantamweight crown for the second time after beating Kyoji Horiguchi with stunning spinning backfist that won Comeback of the Year and Knockout of the Year for a variety of media publications.
Pettis also beat Juan Archuleta to win the bantamweight title two years ago, and his first two fights in Bellator saw him defeat Alfred Khashakyan and Ricky Bandejas. This does, however, now mean the bantamweight king has 15 wins via decision from 23 of his victories, which is the highest decision win ratio of any current Bellator title holder.
As for Mix, he is the clear favorite according to the sportsbooks, so don't be surprised if you come across a few Pettis vs Mix predictions that favor him. On the other hand, he has lost to Archuleta, who Pettis beat for the title, although he did make his run to the Bellator Bantanweight World Grand Prix final look easy. In fact, he won every round against Horiguch in the quarterfinal before submitting Magomed Magomedov via guillotine choke in the semifinal. Mix then claimed the interim belt by defeating Stots with a sensational knee in the first round back in April to book this bout with Pettis.
The route to victory in this one for Mix is clear: submission. The black belt in jiu-jitsu has now recorded 12 of his 18 wins from this method, and being that little bit taller and stronger than Pettis could cause problems for the title holder. However, NYFights thinks Pettis will have enough skill and experience to see out a decision win.
Prediction: Pettis via decision.
Stots vs Sabatello Prediction
After a loss in the interim title bout to Mix, Stots now has to sit by and watch the title fight play out and settle for a spot at third on the main card. However, a convincing win against Sabatello would surely get him another title shot.
Stots edged out a split decision win over Danny Sabatello back in December of last year, but nothing can be taken away from his run to the interim title before that. He managed to defeat Archuleta for the interim belt back in April, 2022, following a sensational knee and elbows KO. Magomedov also fell to a decision loss before that, as did Josh Hill and Keith Lee.
In fact, the only men who have defeated Stots in his career have been the UFC's #2 bantamweight, Merab Dvalishvili, and Mix. What's more, the only reason for his split decision win over Sabatello was because judge Doug Crosby controversially scored every round in favor of Sabatello, when that was far from the case in reality.
Things have not been much better for Sabatello after his loss to Stots, as he lost to Magomedov inside one 1:05 of the first round via guillotine choke last time out. In his second match with Stots, NYFights predicts a much easier victory for the latter, given how it is a three-round battle. What's more, because he now has 11 of his 19 wins on points, NYFights predicts #12 in this regard.
These two men really do not like each other, and this in itself makes for a mouthwatering bout. Throw into the equation the controversy from the first fight, and it makes for an even better matchup this time round.
Prediction: Stots via decision.
McKee vs Outlaw Prediction
You know it's going to be a memorable night when A.J. McKee is this far down on the Bellator 301 card. The former featherweight king, won the title from Pitbull back in July, 2021, but lost the belt back to him a year later. However, by making the move up to lightweight, he has won two fights by defeating Spike Carlyle and Roberto de Souza and barely lost a second of those battles.
McKee's hand speed and ability to mix in kicks is excellent, and with famous submissions wins over the likes of Darrion Caldwell and Pitbull, the American has a sensational way of putting together an array of MMA skills consistently throughout a fight.
Sidney Outlaw sits on a 3-2 record in the past five fights, losing to Michael Chandler via a brutal knockout before another TKO loss to Tofiq Musayev. In reality, he lacks behind McKee's skillset an awful lot before this matchup on Friday night and is not going to be quick and sharp enough to deal with the puzzle McKee brings to the table when the fight is on the feet.
NYFights' A.J. Mckee vs Sidney Outlay prediction heads towards an easy and convincing win for the former featherweight king, as he looks to book another title fight at 155 lbs in the wake of Usman Nurmagomedov's ban from the sport.
Prediction: McKee via decision
Pitbull vs Shabliy Prediction
What a fight to kick off the main card for NYFights' Bellator 301 predictions.
The former lightweight king, Patricky Pitbull, heads into this fight after losses to Musayev, Peter Quealley and Nurmagomedov in his past five fights, defeating only Queally and Roberto de Souza during this recent run. However, his full power was on complete display with a TKO via leg kick against de Souza and his famous TKO via punches over Queally in his own backyard in Dublin.
On the other hand, at 37 and based off his recent form, Pitbull is clearly on his way out, and meeting with an in-form Alexandr Shabliy is the last thing he needs.
As the #2 in the Bellator Lightweight Rankings, Shabily is no doubt the biggest threat in the 155 lbs division right now. His experience in Thai boxing and a later move to combat sambo gives him the perfect set of skills in the standup and grappling departments.
NYFights predicts a relatively easy win for the Russian, who is now sitting on an eight-fight win streak having not suffered a loss since his controversial split decision defeat to Eduard Vartanyan back in 2016. In fact, with 12 wins via KO/TKO and seven via submission, NYFights expects Shabliy to get hold of Pitbull and manhandle his way to a victory.
Prediction: Shabliy via submission