Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez 3: Predictions & Betting Odds



Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez 3: Predictions & Betting Odds
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The NYF Crew is back to give you their insight & prediction for the third fight in this trilogy between Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez.

The fight date that all of the purists have been waiting on has finally arrived as Saturday, live on DAZN, we will all witness the third fight between Juan Francisco Estrada (43-3) and Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez (51-3). It will be a very long time before we get a trilogy from two fighters that are not only elite but have also faced the very best at their weight classes.

To give you an indication on how close of a fight it is, below and throughout the article you will find the odds posted by BetMGM.  


Per BetMGM, Roman ‘Chocolatito' Gonzalez is the favorite at -200, and Juan Francisco Estrada is the underdog at +175.

Roman Gonzalez: Decision +110; KO/TKO +333

Draw: +1600

Juan Francisco Estrada: Decision +300; KO/TKO +600

Now let’s see what the NYF Crew has to say about this excellent matchup on Saturday night.


Michael Woods (Founder, NYFights): Estrada by UD

Heart says Choc, head says Estrada. Hope to be wrong! But Estrada wins UD 8-4 or so.

Jacob Rodriguez (NYFights): Chocolatito by UD

I am cuckoo for Choco! Alright, that was corny I give you that. But what isn't going to be corny is Choclatito's victory over Estrada. I'm not concerned with Choco's age, it seems to me that Gonzalez is whipping father-time's butt too. I'm basing my decision on Gonzalez's past performances with Estrada. The Nicaraguan nightmare beat Estrada the first time, as far as I'm concerned he beat him again in the second fight, and it's not going to be any different this Saturday night. Choco beats Estrada a third time (in my book) by UD.

David Phillips (NYFights, Awards Daily): Estrada by Decision

In what will likely be the last truly great fight of 2022, and the only upcoming trilogy that fans should care about (don't come at me with Fury/Chisora), I see Estrada sneaking out the rubber match with another tight decision – likely by split or majority. Chocolatito is 35 now, with 54 bouts behind him, and his power has never completely followed him up to super flyweight. However, it should be noted that Estrada did have a tougher time than expected in his last fight with Argi Cortes, so neither man is coming into the fight with a clear advantage based upon their most recent result. That being said, I do like Estrada in a squeaker. I think this might be the night when Chocolatito finally gets old.

Gayle Falkenthal (NYFights): Chocolatito by Decision

Momentum is on the side of Roman Gonzalez. The boxing world had nearly written him off after several losses, assuming his career was coming to an end. How wrong we were. Gonzalez overcame the loss of both his father and his longtime trainer and renewed his love for boxing. He's defying the passage of time in the ring in a way few others have. His win earlier this year over Julio Cesar Martinez was a master class. I promise you this, seeing it ringside was even more impressive. Meanwhile, Juan Francisco Estrada barely survived a tough challenge from countryman Argi Cortes in September. If Estrada had a definitive win in the second fight, I might have a different opinion, but Gonzalez won that bout in my eyes. We'll get a lively, competitive fight with Chocolatito coming out the winner by decision.

Marquis Johns (NYFights): Chocolatito by UD

I think that Roman wants to leave zero doubt this time around and should get the nod over Estrada. Here's hoping 117-111 is the actual fight result and not the usual bad judges scorecard.

Here is what my cohost Kyle Johnson from the Say What You Say Podcast stated: “I think Chocolatito wins by a close unanimous decision. I see no reason why this fight won't look much like the second fight. Plenty of punches thrown and high level inside fighting. I think Roman has some extra motivation coming off the disputed loss last year in Dallas, and that will push him over the top in the last few rounds.”

Matthew Aguilar (NYFights, Ringside Seat Magazine, USA Today): Estrada by UD

As good as Chocolatito looked in the Estrada rematch – and as much he bothers him stylistically – it will have been 21 months since they last fought. For a 35-year-old legend in the twilight of his twilight, that’s just a bit too much. Estrada by clear-cut UD.

Lucas Ketelle (author of ‘Inside the Ropes of Boxing’ available HERE): Chocolatito

Good old guy fight. I like Chocolatito to win this fight, solidifying himself as the lower weight fighter of his era, and quite simply I just think he has more left.

Ryan O’Hara (NYFights, LegendzTV): Chocolatito

He won the first two and he should win the third barring terrible judging.

Ernie Green (Founder of #TheChat, Niagara Gazette): Chocolatito by Decision

First off, this may very well be the fight of the year. I thought their second installment was the fight of the year in 2021, but will also concede Fury/Wilder was also very deserving. Also, if you are looking for fighters that actually fight the best, look no further than the lower-weight men’s divisions (and all of women’s boxing, too).

Last years bout had the most hall of fame level action in all fights in 2021, and I expect this trilogy bout to be the same. I also thought Gonzalez won that fight comfortably, and I expect him to win a very competitive, but close decision this time around.

PANEL RESULTS: 6-3 for Roman ‘Chocolatito' Gonzalez to come out victorious.

I'm going to make it 7-3 as I also think Gonzalez will pull out the decision victory in what will be another high level match between the two future Hall of Famers. If you are a fan of the sport, then you should be locked in on Saturday night as this is a matchup you won't want to miss.

You can follow Abe on Twitter @abeg718 and subscribe to “The Boxing Rush Hour Show” podcast on all streaming platforms.

Born and raised in the Bronx, New York City, Abe grew up in a family who were and still are die-hard boxing fans. He started contributing boxing articles to NYF in 2017. Abe through his hard work, has made his way up the ranks and is now the editor at NYFights. He is also a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA).