Canelo vs. GGG 3: Predictions & Betting Odds



Canelo vs. GGG 3: Predictions & Betting Odds
Digital Design: Fightposium

The NYF Crew and friends of the site bring to you an All-Star prediction panel for Canelo vs. GGG 3

This Saturday, for the third time in the same venue (The T-Mobile Arena), undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez (57-2-2) will be facing Gennadiy ‘GGG' Golovkin (42-1-1) in what has to be the most anticipated trilogy in recent years. Before we get into the predictions from our NYF All-Star Panel, let’s take a look at the current odds for Saturday’s main event that will be streamed live from Las Vegas, NV.


Per BetMGM, Canelo Alvarez is the favorite at -450, and Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin is the underdog at +350.

Canelo Alvarez: Decision +110; KO/TKO +150

Draw: +2000

Gennadiy Golovkin: Decision +700; KO/TKO +800

Photo Credit: Melina Pizano/Matchroom.


Michael Woods: Canelo by Decision

I usually have to battle the urge to share what I HOPE happens rather than what my mind informs me is likely to happen, based off of 30 years of fight watching/dissecting. Would I get a kick out of the 40-year-old Kazakh having the night of his life and getting telusivesive win over the Mexican ace? A lil bit… But Canelo is still the same guy who can do the job again, best most all guys from 160 to 175, and is in his theoretical athletic prime. Plus, Canelo comes in humbled and thus more likely to be “on.”

Canelo wins by 3 points.

Holt McCallany (Hollywood Actor): Canelo by Decision

The third confrontation between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin should have already happened long ago. Now at 40 years old, GGG has many obstacles to overcome — his age, a larger, stronger version of Canelo, and finally, the powerful people who control boxing and understand that Canelo is the moneymaker. No wonder the bookies are offering +600 or more for GGG to win by decision. I thought he won both of their previous contests and was robbed twice. I see the same thing happening here—Alvarez by decision.

Charles Malik Whitfield (Hollywood Actor): GGG by KO

Much respect to the Mexican warrior Canelo Alvarez but my prediction is Gennadiy Golovkin for the win by knockout. I think he has nothing to lose, and he is going to put it all on the line. When there’s chink in the armor, you have to exploit it. I think the person that is in danger the most is Canelo Alvarez. I said it and I’ll say it again (laughs).

David Phillips (NYFights/Awards Daily): Canelo by Decision

While it might be trendy to see Canelo as more vulnerable than ever after his loss to Bivol, the matter of size won't be a factor in this fight. What I do believe will be in effect is the matter of age. GGG is still a hell of a fighter, but there have been notable signs of decline in his four fights since his majority loss to Alvarez four years ago. There is no world that exists in which a peak-level GGG doesn't dispatch Ryan Murota well before the ninth round as he did in April of this year. That being said, I suspect that GGG will sell out like never before and go hard and heavy early. Unfortunately, he will be facing down a much younger peak-level fighter who has taken punches from bigger men than GGG and absorbed them like his beard is made of iron. This one will go the distance too, and I think mid-fight, we'll start seeing the youth and skill of Canelo take over and lead him to a clear, if highly competitive, a decision victory over GGG.

Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom.

Colin Morrison (NYFights/Japan-Forward/Spit Balling Pod: Draw

In my mind, I can make a case for just about any outcome happening here. There are many aspects to consider as the two great rivals approach their third encounter with one another. The most pressing issues are GGG's age and Canelo's reaction to defeat against Bivol last time out. Conventional thinking says Canelo on points. Out of the box theory is signaling to me that a card or two could go in GGG's favour this time. I'm going to shun popular opinion and even picking a winner. I have this one down as ending in a draw. More controversy!!

Brian Jaffe (Boxing Advisor): GGG by Split Decision

It's conceivable to believe GGG won the first fight while he officially lost the second. Let's not forget Canelo received a debatable nod against Lara. Fair to reminisce? Let's keep digging. Since '18, Canelo has fought worthy leather eight times if you give credit for Fielding & Yildrimin. GGG fought four times and beat credible names too. Critics' consensus is undeniable age is the common denominator, with the pendulum tipping in Canelo's favor for this fight. If this game is so mental as most profess it to be, let's not kid ourselves; we know exactly how Canelo bounces back. GGG's high IQ, strength, and twenty-four rounds with Canelo will be enough to prevail a split decision in GGG's favor. King Jaff is #OnTheRec w/ The General! Salute.

Glen Sharp (Author): Canelo

Canelo will win. For the first time.

Gayle Falkenthal (NYFights): GGG by Split Decision

Let round 25 begin. Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin are dance partners who love to hate each other, tripping the boxing tango to perfection. The timing may benefit fans after all, with Alvarez coming off a loss and Golovkin seeing a template for victory thanks to Dmitry Bivol. Alvarez will rely on size and youth to prevail. Both may look for a knockout early, but the next time either man is knocked down will be the first time (officially, anyway). Can Golovkin FINALLY get a fair set of scorecards? I think so. He's got no reason not to empty the tank this time. If he keeps the punch rate up, he can make it happen and write the final chapter in the career he's always wanted—Golovkin by split decision.

Ryan O'Hara (NYFights): GGG by Split Decision

An all-out war, loud music, and at least two judges with allergies. But maybe the boxing gods will award the guy who actually won the first two fights. Ah, why not. It's a toss-up. GGG by SD.

Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom.

Vince Cummings (Freeballers Podcast): Canelo by Decision.

September 2018 seems like a lifetime ago now, and it feels like both men are completely different fighters stepping into the ring for the 3rd installment of their rivalry on Saturday night. GGG is finally stepping out of the friendly confines of middleweight, and in his first fight at 168, it will be for all four of Canelo's shiny super middleweight trinkets. Though time has passed, when the bell rings for round 25, I'm going to have to go with the old cliche that “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” These guys are tailor-made for each other in every sense of the word. Canelo is coming into this fight with a bit of a self-manufactured chip on his shoulder, and he seems geared up to come out early and try and let GGGrandpa know that times have changed. But a bigger, sturdier 168lb GGG will weather the early onslaught and start to chip away at Canelo in the middle rounds in some of the best exchanges we've seen in the trilogy so far.

The difference in this fight will be the early damage GGG takes, and his advanced age will come back to haunt him late. Canelo will shine down the stretch and close the show in the championship rounds, putting to bed the Canelo has shaky gas tank question once and for all on his way to a 116-112 victory in the most entertaining fight of their thirty-six-round waltz of destruction and Canelo's first unquestionable W over the Kazakh.

Marquis Johns (NYFights): Canelo by Unanimous Decision

It took a while to happen, but we finally have that “Big Drama Show” we all remember from the HBO Boxing days. I think many folks are overthinking this fight because of the storied history these two have. Spoilers: They still hate each other, and we are all good with that this weekend. I don't expect anything different to start round 25 that we saw in the first twenty-four rounds once the bell rings. The story of Golovkin pulling off the upset appeals to everyone. Just believe the reality is I'm expecting Canelo to be quicker and Father Time to tap Golovkin on the shoulder. Canelo will win by unanimous decision.

Matthew Aguilar (NYFights): GGG by Split Decision

And here I was thinking I'd be going out on a limb with the GGG pick. The NY Fights staff is all over the upset! While common sense points to a Canelo win – he's got youth and prime years on his side – the reality is that very little has separated these two over 24 rounds. Like Ali, Frazier, Leonard, and Hearns, these guys will put on a good, close scrap regardless of the year they fight. In the end, this fight will be as psychological as physical, with the bad blood that has been boiling for five years. And who knows what Canelo's mindset will be after the unexpected Bivol loss? The pressure is on him. GGG has very little to lose but wants to right perceived wrongs like Hearns in the 1989 rematch.  It'll be close, but the pendulum eventually swings in the other direction. GGG by split nod. Fourth fight in May 2023!

Lucas Ketelle (ITR Boxing): Canelo by Split Decision

Whether right or wrong, the tie goes to the most profitable young fighter, not the runner like in baseball. Though this fight should be close, I don't see boxing being enough of a sport for Canelo to lose two fights in a row if it goes to the cards, which I find very likely it will. I expect Canelo to win in some sense of scores, even though I feel that Golovkin seemingly has Canelo's number and will probably perform well again.

Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom.

Tommy Rainone (Boxing Sharp): Conflicted

These guys already know each other, and there is no love lost. Alvarez is coming off a disappointing loss, and he is coming back quickly from it. That loss could have served as renewed motivation or overconfidence, feeling that a 40-year-old declining Golovkin being pulled up to 168 is an easier task than the prime beast he just faced at light heavyweight. Golovkin, in turn, might have learned a little from the Bivol fight as I did, and that's that if the first two or three don't land on Alvarez, just keep throwing. That was what led Bivol to victory; amongst other things, he did well that night. He put volleys of punches together in the second half of the fight on an opponent looking and expecting three punch combinations, and those follow-ups were the scoring shots. GGG will be more aggressive, look to assume the role of aggressor, and set a faster pace. It could not have been easy the last 3-4 years making 160 pounds, so the move to 168 may benefit GGG.

Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom.

In return, I expect Alvarez to be punching with bad intentions in looking for the knockout while investing in Golovkin's body with a sustained attack downstairs. Although neither guy has ever touched the canvas in a combined 105 fights, I'm not so sure this concludes with a decision like many think it will. I have a feeling an exclamation point will be put on the trilogy in the form of a stoppage one way or the other. If it should somehow go the full twelve rounds, I think we will get a fight of the year candidate here because it will be sustained violence for however many rounds it goes.

Randy “Commish” Gordon (At the Fights on Sirius XM): Canelo by Decision

I see a competitive fight…but Canelo is in his prime, GGG is not. That will be the difference. Canelo wins by a competitive unanimous decision.

Panel Results:  8-5-1 (and 1 undecided) for Canelo Alvarez to win.

I am in the minority that will say this publicly, but I have always welcomed the third Canelo vs. GGG fight as the first two were master class level performances. Although the panel is leaning towards Canelo to win, I have to side with Colin Morrison and say it will be a draw. Golovkin still has one more fight left with DAZN after Saturday, and I just think we will see a fourth fight ala Pacquiao & Marquez. As Matthew Aguilar pointed out, see you all in May of next year for the fourth fight. (Editor's note: GGG announced today that this is his last fight with DAZN even though his original deal called for his six fights. Saturday will be his fifth fight under the original deal).

You can follow Abe on Twitter @abeg718 and subscribe to “The Boxing Rush Hour Show” podcast on all streaming platforms. Article main digital design by @fightposium.

Born and raised in the Bronx, New York City, Abe grew up in a family who were and still are die-hard boxing fans. He started contributing boxing articles to NYF in 2017. Abe through his hard work, has made his way up the ranks and is now the editor at NYFights. He is also a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA).